re: Major Severe Weather Outbreak: March 14-16, 2025

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gonna get shite locked down out back before tomorrow - I'm about smack in the middle of the High Risk now

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Does everything these days have to be SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK

It's going to be thunderstorms with heavy winds, like we have our entire lives

But now every dork on social media thinks he is a weather expert and we get a thread on TD 2 "tracking" this "storm" for 2 weeks. It just fricking normal weather patterns and people act like Katrina is about to hit land

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This is going to be one of those days where some baws say “this wuz a big miss nothing even happened” because a tornado doesn’t roll directly through their yard, while something 20 miles away gets completely smashed.

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Im in the middle of level 5.

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
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SPC has just upgraded parts of Mississippi and Alabama to a high risk of severe weather on Saturday. The high risk is rarely used, and hasn’t been since May of 2024. We’ve only had 5 instances of a high risk since 2020 including tomorrow’s high risk. Each of the last 3 high risks saw at least one EF4 tornado, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see multiple, strong, long tracked tornadoes tomorrow. Heck, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw multiple long tracked tornadoes across the country today. So yes, it’s going to be a rough couple of days, though I still think the worst of this stays to our north and east. That being said, my thought process has changed a bit on the local impact.

Let’s start with the Friday threat. The HRRR model, and some other high resolution guidance is becoming more insistent that we will see a severe threat in our area this afternoon. The 4:00-9:00 PM timeframe looks like our best chance to see severe storms develop. All modes of severe weather will be possible with any storms that develop. While I’m still uncertain on how many storms may pop, I do know that there will be the potential for significant severe weather with any cells that do fire up. Unfortunately, today’s threat has trended in the wrong direction, and I now think we will have severe weather in the area due to agreement among the short range models that there will be storms. This is especially true for the northern half of Central Louisiana.

Saturday is going to be a nasty day across the Deep South, and while the most intense threat will be to our east, we still stand a chance to see severe weather in the morning and early afternoon. Any storm that develops could quickly become severe, with all modes of severe weather possible. This will quickly exit to the east of our area by around 2:00 PM, but even a brief threat, with severe parameters like this is a dangerous threat. The further west you go in our area, the better your chance to see no severe weather on Saturday. I think west of Highway 165 has a much lower chance than places like St. Landry, Avoyelles, Catahoula, and Concordia Parish. Once this system exits our area, we will see an outbreak of tornadoes across southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. This could be a day those areas will be talking about for a long while.

As many of you know, I am out of town, and going a bit crazy that I’m not there. I’ll say it a million times, I have the best back up in the world in Tom Konvicka, and you are in the best hands for any local severe coverage. All we can do now is be ready to seek shelter, and pray this system ends up underachieving in a big way. I’ll be watching the cameras if we have severe weather in our area later today so I can keep those pointed in the right direction. We will update things as needed.

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