re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

quote:

---

Um, I'm pretty sure science tells us that if it's below 32 (using the Fahrenheit system)it will snow.

Trust the science.

---

quote:

---

Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
There are so many words to type. We have several winter’s worth of threats in the next week, so I’ll mention each possibility, but the main focus will go to the Monday storm.
Friday...
This chance is marginal, and shouldn’t be a huge deal. Temperatures will be in the 31-35 range across the area as light rain falls. The best chance to see some freezing rain will be north of a line from Anacoco to Pollock to Jonesville. Amounts should be light, and as we get to around noon, most of us will warm to just above freezing. This would mainly bring a little ice to the trees, and maybe cause a few slick bridges. We could also stay just above freezing areawide. This would usually be headline news, but it’s probably our most “meh” possibility in the next week.
Saturday....
I think we stay just warm enough, and any precipitation will be very light. Don’t sweat Saturday unless I change my mind. Embrace Saturday.
Sunday...
This is where things start to get tricky. A reinforcing shot of cold air heads our way, as a significant storm system moves toward the area. A lead impulse may bring us some light freezing rain, especially late in the day. As temperatures really start to plunge Sunday night, roads should become pretty bad. Even with just light amounts of precipitation. Models are trending a bit heavier on this, so you’ll want to plan on having any shopping done before Sunday.
Monday into Monday night...
This is the main show, and has the potential to be a big one. You know I do my best to stay hype free. I’ll continue this impressive streak of being a decent human, but won’t sugar coat the potential so you have ample time to prepare for the *potential* of a disruptive winter storm. Disruptive could mean impassable roads, closed bridges, power outages, and extreme cold to go along with the power outages. There are still scenarios where this stays fairly tame, but my confidence is up to 70-80% that we will see a significant ice storm in the area. It could easily impact all of Central Louisiana. I classify Central Louisiana as Rapides, Vernon, Avoyelles, Grant, Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, LaSalle, Catahoula, Concordia, Beauregard, Allen, Evangeline, and St. Landry Parishes. The details that will be crucial are, how cold do we get, and what form will most of the precipitation fall as? If we are 20 degrees with sleet, that’s an entirely different animal than 27 and freezing rain. Sleet bounces off tree limbs and power lines. Freezing rain, and those very cold temperatures, freezes on everything, and can cause damage to trees and power lines. Models are showing 1/2 to 1 inch of liquid from this storm. Some slightly higher. The low end of these amounts would cause power outages, and tree damage, especially with all the limbs we already have dangling from all those hurricanes. At this time, I think freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type in most of our area, but a colder airmass would mean more sleet. The main message here is that you should start to plan for an ice storm, and while chances are as high as they get 3-4 days out, it’s not definite. We aren’t even in the range of the high resolution models for the main event, but global models are really honing in on a significant winter storm over a large part of the Deep South. This might extend all the way down to I-10. Behind this system, it looks fairly certain we will see lows down into the teens, with temperatures possibly as low as 10 degrees. That’s a pipe busting freeze, after a potentially major ice storm. There’s room for change, but it’s time to plan ahead.
Later in the week…
There’s another potential system, but the details are a few days away from being resolved at all, so don’t sweat this. This could fade from being an issue, and we have plenty more to watch before that. I’ll update this if it starts to look likely, but for now, it’s an interesting footnote on a wild week.

---

quote:

---

Don’t sweat Saturday unless I change my mind. Embrace Saturday.

---

quote:

---

Why do I have a strange feeling you WANT this to happen???????

---

quote:

---

Because I do want it

---

quote:

---

Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
48m ·
There are so many words to type. We have several winter’s worth of threats in the next week, so I’ll mention each possibility, but the main focus will go to the Monday storm.
Friday...
This chance is marginal, and shouldn’t be a huge deal. Temperatures will be in the 31-35 range across the area as light rain falls. The best chance to see some freezing rain will be north of a line from Anacoco to Pollock to Jonesville. Amounts should be light, and as we get to around noon, most of us will warm to just above freezing. This would mainly bring a little ice to the trees, and maybe cause a few slick bridges. We could also stay just above freezing areawide. This would usually be headline news, but it’s probably our most “meh” possibility in the next week.
Saturday....
I think we stay just warm enough, and any precipitation will be very light. Don’t sweat Saturday unless I change my mind. Embrace Saturday.
Sunday...
This is where things start to get tricky. A reinforcing shot of cold air heads our way, as a significant storm system moves toward the area. A lead impulse may bring us some light freezing rain, especially late in the day. As temperatures really start to plunge Sunday night, roads should become pretty bad. Even with just light amounts of precipitation. Models are trending a bit heavier on this, so you’ll want to plan on having any shopping done before Sunday.
Monday into Monday night...
This is the main show, and has the potential to be a big one. You know I do my best to stay hype free. I’ll continue this impressive streak of being a decent human, but won’t sugar coat the potential so you have ample time to prepare for the *potential* of a disruptive winter storm. Disruptive could mean impassable roads, closed bridges, power outages, and extreme cold to go along with the power outages. There are still scenarios where this stays fairly tame, but my confidence is up to 70-80% that we will see a significant ice storm in the area. It could easily impact all of Central Louisiana. I classify Central Louisiana as Rapides, Vernon, Avoyelles, Grant, Sabine, Natchitoches, Winn, LaSalle, Catahoula, Concordia, Beauregard, Allen, Evangeline, and St. Landry Parishes. The details that will be crucial are, how cold do we get, and what form will most of the precipitation fall as? If we are 20 degrees with sleet, that’s an entirely different animal than 27 and freezing rain. Sleet bounces off tree limbs and power lines. Freezing rain, and those very cold temperatures, freezes on everything, and can cause damage to trees and power lines. Models are showing 1/2 to 1 inch of liquid from this storm. Some slightly higher. The low end of these amounts would cause power outages, and tree damage, especially with all the limbs we already have dangling from all those hurricanes. At this time, I think freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type in most of our area, but a colder airmass would mean more sleet. The main message here is that you should start to plan for an ice storm, and while chances are as high as they get 3-4 days out, it’s not definite. We aren’t even in the range of the high resolution models for the main event, but global models are really honing in on a significant winter storm over a large part of the Deep South. This might extend all the way down to I-10. Behind this system, it looks fairly certain we will see lows down into the teens, with temperatures possibly as low as 10 degrees. That’s a pipe busting freeze, after a potentially major ice storm. There’s room for change, but it’s time to plan ahead.
Later in the week…
There’s another potential system, but the details are a few days away from being resolved at all, so don’t sweat this. This could fade from being an issue, and we have plenty more to watch before that. I’ll update this if it starts to look likely, but for now, it’s an interesting footnote on a wild week.

---