re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

Hah if that verifies the entire city of Houston in ice sounds awful

You can't really fault them for not sounding the alarm yet. What is being shown in most of the models is a once in a lifetime event. The safe bet is still that the GFS and EURO will meet in the middle. (At the time, that middle still would have us with some winter mix and low 20s ) Also, there is a lot of time left.

What is remarkable (and concerning) is how all in these models are going with the winter weather consistently. Seems like everytime we say that the GFS is on crack, it out-does itself. We also aren't seeing them push out the date as much as a few days ago.

NWS Shreveport still holding with lows in the upper teens for Sat-Tuesday with frz rain/sleet/snow Sunday and Monday.

It's coming out slightly colder for north Texas and north Louisiana already. Wonder how it will end up with the rest of the update.

Edit: ok not anymore. spoke too soon

Yes me too. If power stays on I’m not worried, can definitely keep pipes warm enough. Just wait and see. Really hope these extreme temps (or an ice storm) don’t happen.

Euro is trending 5 degrees colder than the overnight run.

Jay Eachus is going to be so pissed if the EURO comes in a lot colder

This post is now a couple hours old... but it's for all us people living in the CenLA

quote:

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
We are now five days out from “the big threat”, so it’s time for daily updates at the very least. This is an uncommon setup, and one that only comes along every few years when it comes to the strength of the cold air. This time, it looks like some moisture will mingle with the cold here in the Deep South, which is even more of a rarity. You know the drill. I won’t exhibit anything resembling confidence this far out, but I will say that the model signal, and my own personal feeling about this system is pretty much as high confidence as it gets 5 days out. What does that mean? It’s tough to put a number on it, but as of now, I’d say I’m 40% confident of us seeing an impactful winter storm over at least half of the area next Monday into Monday night. That’s just me trying to plop a number on it. To me, that’s a huge number this far out. To you, you’re probably like, “that’s it?”.
The set up is potentially incredible. A strong arctic high will build down over fresh snowpack in the Midwest. More snow and ice will fall across Oklahoma and Arkansas, meaning the Arctic air won’t have much time to modify as it moves toward our area. This will be a pure Arctic airmass with temperatures clocking in around -40 degrees in parts of Canada. It won’t be much warmer in the northern United States. As this pushes southward, rather unimpeded, we get a storm system to push this way from the west coast. This system is basically a piece of energy that will rotate around a massive upper system of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. So let’s not act like we truly know what will happen here. The specifics won’t be close to evident for a few more days. But storm system interacting with a borderline historic cold airmass could be quite interesting. If this comes to pass, I expect more of a freezing rain and sleet event than snow. Arctic air is typically fairly shallow down here. We don’t want this to be all freezing rain. Sleet would bounce nicely off the trees and power lines and cause mainly travel trouble. Freezing rain cakes on everything and causes power outages. We aren’t there yet. We are just in watch and see mode. So don’t mob the grocery stores for milk and toilet paper just yet. I’ll update things daily, or if I see something really interesting. I’m not attaching images, because no one model captures the uncertainty, and I’m too old to figure out how to make a nice clean graphic myself. Plus I just typed all these words, so it’s time for another coffee.

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EURO still coming in roughly 5 degrees colder in each location.