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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 7, 2020 Update: 128,746 cases - 4089 deaths - 1,505,002 tested
Posted on 8/7/20 at 12:46 pm to tigerskin
Posted on 8/7/20 at 12:46 pm to tigerskin
quote:
Wr are going to phase 3 on August 28.
Doubtful. Maybe a full on phase 2 and not this watered down phase 1.5 we are in now.
2
Posted on 8/7/20 at 12:47 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
The only thing I can think of is that LDH page is reporting restests of known positives in its percentage. The retests of known positives are not reported to the state as new cases if they're caught at this stage.
You're giving them WAY more credit than I do.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 12:50 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Yeah their break came when they finally made adjustments to the Subway protocol (nightly shutdown, disinfecting, etc)
But it is the same principle. It doesn’t just happen..you have to get people out of each other’s faces be it spread out, masks etc especially during a breakout/
But it is the same principle. It doesn’t just happen..you have to get people out of each other’s faces be it spread out, masks etc especially during a breakout/
This post was edited on 8/7/20 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 8/7/20 at 12:52 pm to philly444
We can go to phase 3 and still hold other things back. I hate it for the bar folks but their position in the stages has been moved to the end.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 12:54 pm to LSUJML
quote:
It’s “back” in my Grandpas nursing home after several weeks of no new cases
The new cases do not require hospitalization
Good to hear!
Weird how nature works. Natural immunity decreases the viral load spread...naturally. Who would have thunk it.
That's why kids need to go back to school. Natural little virus killers.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:00 pm to philly444
official "finalized" statewide numbers updated
as of July 31, the official percent positive rate is 12.83%
that's down from the secondary peak of 15.4% on July 9
ETA: first time at sub-13% positive since July 2 (12.33%)
as of July 31, the official percent positive rate is 12.83%
that's down from the secondary peak of 15.4% on July 9
ETA: first time at sub-13% positive since July 2 (12.33%)
This post was edited on 8/7/20 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:03 pm to danilo
quote:
I think masks work
What makes you think that?
When would you expect a decrease in cases to be seen with mandated mask use? Immediately? A week or so afterwards?
At what point after infection are people getting tested and/or testing positive? Same day they get the virus? Or 4-7 days after exposure when symptoms set in?
Check the LDH dashboard. Mandate went into effect July 13th.
Statewide percent positive peaked before the mandate (July 9). Cases (by date of testing) peaked the day of the mandate.
If you break cases by collection date out by regions you get:
1 (NOLA): July 13
2 (BR): July 13
3 (South Central): July 13
4 (Acadiana): July 13
5 (Southwest): July 7
6 (Central): July 20
7 (Shreveport): July 13
8 (Monroe): July 27 - more than likely
9 (Northshore): July 14
If they are so effective as to immediately stop cases like that, Fauci deserves to be prosecuted for lying to the American public in March.
I just don't believe the timing of it when it comes to folks being tested compared to when they were likely exposed. If the peak was 4-7 days after the mandate, I'd buy that it works a little more. As it stands now, mask effectiveness would have had to time travel to effect cases like the testing has shown.
My thinking may be completely wrong on this front, however.
July 13th also happened to be the peak of testing so far as well. Hmmm....
This post was edited on 8/7/20 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:11 pm to tigerskin
quote:
We can go to phase 3 and still hold other things back. I hate it for the bar folks but their position in the stages has been moved to the end.
WH Phase 3 opens nursing homes
I know I have bitched, whined & cried on here about nursing homes being shut down but if nursing homes open before bars even I have to admit that’s fricked up
Other than increasing capacity everywhere I think the only “new” thing for Phase 3 is nursing homes
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:14 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
Numbers trending well. Probably still need to get that % positive down.
Once it gets to 5% consistently then you will see JBE lift some restrictions and move us into next phase.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:16 pm to YouAre8Up
quote:
And what would you want to bet that JBE thinks that number is still way to high, dangerous and could overload the heath system?
Based on the guidance he’s receiving from the CDC and corona task force it is to high. 10% is when action has to take place. 5% has and will always be the goal for phase 3.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:17 pm to Sasquatch Smash
If you want to have more fun, the 2nd derivative of the epi curve looks like it rolls negative - indicating case count was no longer exponentially growing - around July 1st, indicating July 4th didn't have much of an effect either.
The mask data may show up as an steeper slope on the back side of this peak - but until this gets compiled years later in some massive study it's going to be hard to prove either way.
The mask data may show up as an steeper slope on the back side of this peak - but until this gets compiled years later in some massive study it's going to be hard to prove either way.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:21 pm to Cosmo
quote:
2 weeks after labor day at earliest imo
This is correct. Unless there is some miraculous drop to a consistent 5% positivity rate we will not move out of phase 2. However, we could see phase 2 restrictions eased as it pertains to some restrictions. This will be an early test of how things are going. Labor Day and the 14 days afterwards will determine if we move to phase 3.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:24 pm to TigersSEC2010
Where do the 6 images come from?
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:25 pm to tigerskin
You are utterly delusional if you think we go to full Phase 3 in August.
We MIGHT get back to the original Phase 2 but I doubt it.
There's no chance he does that before Labor Day. We are in some modified version of Phase 2 until at least 2 weeks past Labor Day.
We MIGHT get back to the original Phase 2 but I doubt it.
There's no chance he does that before Labor Day. We are in some modified version of Phase 2 until at least 2 weeks past Labor Day.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:27 pm to treyk89
quote:
5% has and will always be the goal for phase 3.
Link?
I keep seeing this yet nothing from the White House or CDC says 5%
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:27 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
If you want to have more fun, the 2nd derivative of the epi curve looks like it rolls negative - indicating case count was no longer exponentially growing - around July 1st, indicating July 4th didn't have much of an effect either.
Exactly. Anyone paying attention knew the rate of growth was slowing. Once you see that you know the peak is coming.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:28 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
JBE knew the peak was coming. We said it here repeatedly and we don’t even have all the data he does. His “mask mandate” was a well timed move to make it look like he made a difference. 95% of people wearing legitimate masks were wearing them before the mandate. The other 5% after the mandate are wearing an old tshirt over their face that does absolutely nothing.
This is blatantly false. Mask do work to a certain extent. JBE has always leaned heavily on the data and advice he has received from the CDC, task force, and Dr Birx. Actually, as he has mentioned, we didn’t go with every restriction that was recommended. Those who continue to spread lies and misinformation in an effort to draw up some conspiracy theory with JBE and his decisions, are poster children of what’s wrong with our state.
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:28 pm to BRIllini07
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:29 pm to LSUJML
quote:
I keep seeing this yet nothing from the White House or CDC says 5%
dude I gave you all the info last week
its from those recommendation letters the WH sent all the states and were ranking states as red, yellow, or green
Posted on 8/7/20 at 1:32 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
You are utterly delusional if you think we go to full Phase 3 in August.
If not delusional, then just plain ignorant. I’m not going debate the seriousness of Covid and effectiveness of mask, or the best time to open things back up. However, it’s clear as day what JBE’s strategy is. Whether people agree with his decisions or not is one thing, but he’s never lied or sugar costed his decision. He’s been transparent. We’re not going to phase 3 soon. He has hinted at that for the last week or so without directly saying it. He always shows a few cards, without showing his entire hand.
This post was edited on 8/7/20 at 1:39 pm
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