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re: Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:34 pm to TigrrrDad
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:34 pm to TigrrrDad
The odds are 50/50.
Since it is known 1 goat will be revealed (not necessarily door 3) all the "theater" before choosing between the final 2 doors is nothing more than a distraction.
Since it is known 1 goat will be revealed (not necessarily door 3) all the "theater" before choosing between the final 2 doors is nothing more than a distraction.
3
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:40 pm to Rebel
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:46 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
In the circumstance where you are correct switching will lose
In the circumstance where you were wrong the host will reveal your other Miss.
That means every time you pick wrong switching will win because the host is never going to reveal the car
And there are 2 out of 3 ways you can initially pick wrong, hence the 66.7% chance. Good explanation.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:49 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
It's still 33/67 and not 50/50.
Lol.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:50 pm to SlapahoeTribe
I'll take both goats and sell them to a Muslim for 10,000 shekels.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:04 pm to SlapahoeTribe
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:07 pm to Rebel
the YouTube video seems to clear it up. On your first pick, you have a 2 in 3 chance of picking a goat. Monte must pick and remove the other goat, so switching wins the car if you started with a goat( 2 in 3), so you improve you odds by switching..
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:15 pm to SlapahoeTribe
I'm not going to read the entire thread, so excuse me if this has been covered already.
What happens if its oxen instead of goats that are used? (asking for a friend).
What happens if its oxen instead of goats that are used? (asking for a friend).
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:18 pm to LordSaintly
quote:
And there are 2 out of 3 ways you can initially pick wrong, hence the 66.7% chance. Good explanation.
Honestly, it's not hard. Everyone, when confronted with the correct explanation knows it to be correct
Dadd is just a trolling a-hole like everyone before him
That's why i had the sense not to beat my head against the wall.
Some people genuinely want to learn.
That is NOT why he's in the thread
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:22 pm to TigerCoon
Your take is wrong.
Think about it like this, if Monty asked would you rather pick 1 door out of 3 or 2 doors out of three which would you prefer?
Hopefully you would want to be able to pick 2. You pick door numbers 1 & 2.
Monty then (non-randomly, of course) reveals a goat behind door number 2 to raise drama and asks if you want to switch to door number 3 now.
Obviously (hopefully), you shouldn't because there was a 100% chance of at least one goat behind your 2 doors, and you still have 66.7% chance of having a car behind your remaining door.
He didn't reset the game.
Think about it like this, if Monty asked would you rather pick 1 door out of 3 or 2 doors out of three which would you prefer?
Hopefully you would want to be able to pick 2. You pick door numbers 1 & 2.
Monty then (non-randomly, of course) reveals a goat behind door number 2 to raise drama and asks if you want to switch to door number 3 now.
Obviously (hopefully), you shouldn't because there was a 100% chance of at least one goat behind your 2 doors, and you still have 66.7% chance of having a car behind your remaining door.
He didn't reset the game.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:28 pm to FutureMikeVIII
I think we might be saying the same thing. If Monte's pick is not random and always removes a goat, always switch. If his pick is random (and does not remove the car) , switching makes no difference in the probability to win.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:32 pm to TigerCoon
quote:
I think we might be saying the same thing. If Monte's pick is not random and always removes a goat, always switch. If his pick is random (and does not remove the car) , switching makes no difference in the probability to win.
Hold for my response I accidentally hit submit
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:34 pm to TigerCoon
His pick is never random... that's part of the game, he knows where everything is and will always show a goat
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:35 pm to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
asks if you want to switch to door number 3 now.
Obviously (hopefully), you shouldn't
I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:38 pm to TheArrogantCorndog
agree. Games show drama really is implied by the name of the problem, but not stated in the original post. He said host picks, not "must pick" a goat
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:50 pm to TigerCoon
I would just like to point out that nothing Monte does changes the fact that your chances of being right with your first choice were 1 in 3
Now for the fun part.
Do you guys know what Monty's chances of being right are when he picks second if he's picking at random and doesn't know the answer?
Now for the fun part.
Do you guys know what Monty's chances of being right are when he picks second if he's picking at random and doesn't know the answer?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:51 pm to ShortyRob
I should have that when you are Computing odds for the Monty Hall problem you take the game as a whole because the game isn't being reset after every choice. Maybe that'll help answering my prior question
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:52 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
Do you guys know what Monty's chances of being right are when he picks second if he's picking at random and doesn't know the answer?
What's his definition of being right?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:57 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
I would just like to point out that nothing Monte does changes the fact that your chances of being right with your first choice were 1 in 3
the way the game is set up, the contestant will always, always be faced with picking 1 of 2 doors. The odds are 50/50.
The 3rd door is irrelevant. The "3rd door" was never an option to begin with.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:00 pm to ShortyRob
if you are asking about Monte's chance of selecting the car with a random pick, it is 1 in 3. The fact that he picked second, and your pick eliminated one door makes no difference, Correct?
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