- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Let's discuss the Monty Hall problem (probabilities, odds)
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:54 pm to Sneaky__Sally
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:54 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
yes they are.
No they aren't. The host could pick the car.
1
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:57 pm to KosmoCramer
Well i said that i should have said host always opens a goat door in my response. The point of the post was that you can't have a 50/50 chance in the three door game outlined in the OP
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 1:59 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
The point of the post was that you can't have a 50/50 chance in the three door game outlined in the OP
Technically you can if you're being disingenuous and don't take all the information given in the OP.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:03 pm to TigrrrDad
quote:
Precisely. And in that ONE scenario, there are four possible outcomes. 2 win and 2 lose. 50/50
The hypothetical scenario as part of "the Monty Hall problem" is jumping to the step where the goat isn't behind door #3 and we now know that because that's the one being opened. If the goat had been behind door #3, and you picked door #1, then the host would have opened door #2.
If you're ever in the same situation as the OP, you should switch, you'll have a 2/3 chance of winning. Or just stick with your original pick, and be happy with your 1/3. That's still better than the lottery.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:03 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:
No, listen, what you're talking about is like the end game for "Deal or No Deal", where the prizes are $1 million, $1, and everything in between is goats.
No, I'm just looking at the game from the perspective of how the player's choices impact the odds of winning.
If Monty knows where the car is, and he reveals a goat intentionally, then your odds of winning are 1/3 if you pick and stay, and 2/3 if you pick and switch.
If Monty does NOT know where the car is, then your odds of winning are 1/3 if you pick and stay, 1/3 if you pick and switch, and 1/3 that Monty reveals the car.
Yes, I understand that Monty creates a new game by opening a door when he picks at random. And yes, this NEW GAME has odds of 50/50. I'm just saying that when considering the game as a whole, there is no scenario where you have a 50% chance of winning from the outset. If there are 3 doors and you switch, you're trading 1/3 for 1/3. With 100 doors, you're trading 1% for 1%.
I understand that odds change throughout a random game. I'm just saying that nothing the player does can change the odds in a random game.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:09 pm to Korkstand
quote:
I'm just saying that when considering the game as a whole, there is no scenario where you have a 50% chance of winning from the outset
What are the odds if you pick door number two, a generic game show host opens door number 1 which is a goat, but you don't know if he knows which door the car behind or not?
If you always switch, then your odds are greater than 33% if there is any possibility that he might know the results.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:10 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
yes they are. You don't choose until there are only two doors, one with a car and one without a car. - sorry i guess i should have said that the first door he opens has a goat.
That's exactly what happens in the OP scenario. By getting to switch, you get to choose between door # 1 or door #2. One has a car, one has a goat. 50/50.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:12 pm to Korkstand
quote:Not true. If Monty opens a door randomly and reveals a goat, it doesn't matter whether he knows where the car is or not.
Yes, I understand that Monty creates a new game by opening a door when he picks at random. And yes, this NEW GAME has odds of 50/50.
So in the OP if you pick door 1 and Monty picks door 3 and it's a goat, it doesn't matter if Monty is aware of where the car is or not. It's still 33/67 and not 50/50.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:14 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Think of it in terms of sports. If the Cleveland Cavs play the Detroit Pistons 100 times, Cleveland might win 67 games and Detroit might win 33 games. If you were betting on the games, there are only two outcomes. If you pick Cleveland to win, they can either win or they lose. But the probability that Cleveland wins is not 50/50. There is a 67% chance that Cleveland wins the game even though there are only two possible outcomes. It's a similar concept here with the doors. You only have two choices, but each choice is not 50/50. It's 33/67.
Worst analogy ever. Just stupid.
A better analogy would be there are 3 doors. Behind one is the Pistons, behind another is Lebron and the Cavs, and behind another is a GOAT. He opens door #3 and there stands Michael Jordan...
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:14 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Most of the idiots around here have proven that they can't grasp something as simple as the order of operations. I don't need to read this thread to know that it's ten pages of stupid frickers who cannot grasp the subtle probability question in play not letting that stop them from arguing as loudly as they can about it.
How close am I?
Pretty close.
Next we'll debate if a plane can take off on a runway-sized conveyor belt?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:14 pm to Korkstand
quote:
I'm just saying that when considering the game as a whole, there is no scenario where you have a 50% chance of winning from the outset.
Was anybody saying that? Rhetorical question; I'm not going back to see.
quote:
I understand that odds change throughout a random game. I'm just saying that nothing the player does can change the odds in a random game.
I'll go along with that. I think that's what I've been saying.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:15 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
It's still 33/67 and not 50/50.
Those are the exact same
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:15 pm to TheArrogantCorndog
quote:
C G G W L
G C G L W
G G C L W
Ok. That makes sense now. I couldn't wrap my head around it.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:15 pm to TigrrrDad
No, it is not exactly what happens - in my example the host reveals a door with a goat, then you choose one door and stick with it. In the OP you choose before a door is revealed and then you are given an option to switch afterwards. Very different scenarios from a probability perspective.
Explanation from Movie 21
See that link for an explanation, i don't care to discuss it anymore.
Explanation from Movie 21
See that link for an explanation, i don't care to discuss it anymore.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 2:16 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:16 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
If Monty opens a door randomly and reveals a goat, it doesn't matter whether he knows where the car is or not.
So in the OP if you pick door 1 and Monty picks door 3 and it's a goat, it doesn't matter if Monty is aware of where the car is or not. It's still 33/67 and not 50/50.
Oh dear god, make it stop.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:16 pm to Sneaky__Sally
Give it up, he's hopelessly lunchboxing the shite out of this thread.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:16 pm to LSUBoo
ya i'm done.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:20 pm to dbeck
quote:
That's not how Let's Make A Deal worked.
The thread title says "the Monty Hall problem" which is a well-known probability problem, not some random meme with no context. To pretend that the host would be choosing doors at random is disingenuous and you know it.
Yeah, I know. I made a couple of earlier posts explaining exactly that. However, the discussion had taken another turn. Your comment is out of line.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:25 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
Give it up, he's hopelessly lunchboxing the shite out of this thread
Thank you folks, you've been a great crowd. I'll be here all night.
I'm sitting in a hotel ballroom since 9:30 and have 7 more hours to kill.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 2:26 pm
Posted on 8/12/17 at 2:31 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:Yeah, you're correct. I've been arguing in circles for so long I confused myself.
Oh dear god, make it stop.
Page 11 of 13
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News