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1
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:16 pm to burdman
so wtf was the point of your post?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:16 pm to slackster
That’s good to know
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:16 pm to Klark Kent
What slackster just answered
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:17 pm to burdman
k, bye
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:17 pm to Klark Kent
Thanks for your contributions
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:18 pm to slackster
Those sgetti models sure did tighten up a lot more than they were!!!
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:19 pm to burdman
Soooo, O/U 10 "Marco 2020 Never Forget" blown down chair or similar memes in the next two days?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:20 pm to deuce985
Here is a question for the experts on here. When I looked at 7:00 it looked like Marco was going back around to the model from Friday night and a Saturday morning. That is where it comes to the coast and goes due west. If that is the case do we have a good chance of Laura doing the same thing? By that I mean going back to the models from Friday night and Saturday morning? If so, that will bring it in around Morgan City?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:20 pm to burdman
anytime.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:21 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Center looks well south of cuba on there
The NHC official position is north of most of the heavier convection just inland from the South coast of Cuba about 30 miles west of Guantonomo.
David Bernard on Fox 8 NOLA said center could gradually shift away from the coast toward the heavier convection.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:21 pm to slackster
Many. Like people have said, hope Marco likely being not much doesn’t make people downplay Laura
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:22 pm to burdman
quote:
That’s good to know
It's taken from the past 5 years of storm tracks.
The problem - and I've discussed this in these threads before - is that the cone doesn't account for individual storm uncertainty. Sometimes they're quite certain what it will do and could theoretically draw a smaller cone. Sometimes they're quite stumped and could draw a larger one. Alas, that's not what they do.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:22 pm to bigcatfish
Or you could just wait until tomorrow night when she comes off of Cuba and let them nail the forecast down for you at that time.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:23 pm to slackster
So when it comes off Cuba tomorrow night, not only do they get to take out the uncertainty of land interaction, but it also will fall inside of the 60 hour deviation period?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:26 pm to bigcatfish
quote:
Here is a question for the experts on here.
Well since you explicitly asked for me, I'll oblige.
quote:
When I looked at 7:00 it looked like Marco was going back around to the model from Friday night and a Saturday morning. That is where it comes to the coast and goes due west. If that is the case do we have a good chance of Laura doing the same thing? By that I mean going back to the models from Friday night and Saturday morning? If so, that will bring it in around Morgan City?
They're largely independent of one another. Marco's forecast can look like it did Friday and Laura could be doing a differently thing entirely. They do share a common steering influence at the moment, but it's one of many factors.
ETA - But FWIW, Morgan City is still a possibility for Laura, and it always has been.
This post was edited on 8/23/20 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:28 pm to burdman
quote:
but it also will fall inside of the 60 hour deviation period?
Yes, but once again, that's taken from the standard deviation of 5 years worth of storms. It doesn't necessarily mean squat for Laura, but the cone will reflect it nonetheless.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:29 pm to slackster
For sure
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:29 pm to deuce985
quote:
You guys are going to kill yourselves over the cone shifts. It's going to keep flip flopping.
Who knew it was a politician
Posted on 8/23/20 at 8:29 pm to slackster
When is the next update?
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