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Message
re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:14 pm to lsugolfredman
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:14 pm to lsugolfredman
Well what pisses me off is they says it is going WNW yet the coordinates say NW based on the 4p to 7p... right?
0
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:15 pm to Duke
With Marco still being in southeast Texas into Wednesday, Laura being pushed east is definitely likely.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:16 pm to treyk89
quote:
From what I understand, there are several GFS ensemble members that have trended back east. Maybe the NHC won’t change the track much???
18z (most recent):
Not sure what's going on with some of the graphics. I was always under the impression the black line was the operational run, but the 18z GFS is further west than this black line. Also, the 12z GFS ensemble black line is much, much further east than the 12z GFS operation run.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:16 pm to The Boat
quote:
Marco really looks like trash.
This. If people want to see what true shearing is, look at Marco right now.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:16 pm to ell_13
The tracks currently have them within 200 miles of each other early Wednesday afternoon. That’s just not going to happen.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:16 pm to lsugolfredman
Eastern shift is possible but that's an outlier right now.
And Laura looks extremely healthy. It's kinda scary to see what she'll do over the conditions she'll be running into next few days.
And Laura looks extremely healthy. It's kinda scary to see what she'll do over the conditions she'll be running into next few days.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:19 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
To me it looks Laura's cone came back a bit East since this morning.
The NHC discussion says it was essentially unchanged after 48 hours. Some of the illusion can be due to the changing intervals.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:19 pm to deuce985
quote:
Not sure what's going on with some of the graphics. I was always under the impression the black line was the operational run, but the 18z GFS is further west than this black line. Also, the 12z GFS ensemble black line is much, much further east than the 12z GFS operation run.
The black line represents the mean for that ensemble run. Not the operational run.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:20 pm to ell_13
quote:
With Marco still being in southeast Texas into Wednesday, Laura being pushed east is definitely likely.
quote:
The tracks currently have them within 200 miles of each other early Wednesday afternoon. That’s just not going to happen.
Did you forget to log into your alter or am I missing something here?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:21 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:
The black line represents the mean for that ensemble run. Not the operational run.
Thank you. I guess the mean and operational are typically pretty close to one another, hence the prior confusion. Appreciate you clearing that up.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:23 pm to slackster
No. I replied to myself on purpose. It wasn’t really a response to anyone in particular. Just didn’t feel like editing.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:24 pm to BigBrod81
Marco only had 50 knot SFMR surface wind on current recon pass. Even if NHC gives him 55 he will be downgraded unless they find stronger winds in convection well out to the NE of center.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:24 pm to ell_13
quote:
No. I replied to myself on purpose. It wasn’t really a response to anyone in particular. Just didn’t feel like editing.
The immediate contradiction had me scratching my head.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:25 pm to slackster
So where do we think Laura’s going now? Still TX/LA border?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:25 pm to slackster
So, what’s the current consensus on Laura shifting eastward away from Galveston?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:25 pm to slackster
Contradiction?
They’re aligned. Laura moving east according to the euro makes sense. Marco is still in southeast Texas which would “push” Laura in that direction, further east from the current NWS track.
They’re aligned. Laura moving east according to the euro makes sense. Marco is still in southeast Texas which would “push” Laura in that direction, further east from the current NWS track.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:28 pm to ell_13
quote:
Contradiction?
They’re aligned. Laura moving east according to the euro makes sense. Marco is still in southeast Texas which would “push” Laura in that direction, further east from the current NWS track.
You said the Euro resolution is plausible, then immediately said they're 200 miles apart and "that's not going to happen."
Now I'm back to being confused, or maybe I cannot read.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:28 pm to slackster
quote:
Not sure what's going on with some of the graphics. I was always under the impression the black line was the operational run, but the 18z GFS is further west than this black line. Also, the 12z GFS ensemble black line is much, much further east than the 12z GFS operation run.
So what does the mean exactly? We still don’t have a clue what it’s going to do?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 7:28 pm to slackster
I meant that the NWS track has them 200 miles apart. The NWS doesn’t use the euro.
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