re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Marco discussion

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Cutting to the chase, there have been some big changes among the
model guidance, and subsequently the NHC forecast, for Marco this
afternoon. While at this point it's a little speculative, the data
collected by this morning's NOAA G-IV flight in the environment
around Marco and across the Gulf of Mexico may have played a key
role in the significant eastward shift seen in nearly all the 12z
models. This isn't to say that the uncertainty in the eventual
track has diminished. In fact, various ensemble members from some
of the global models still show a potential risk to the coast
anywhere from Texas to Alabama, and it's entirely possible that the
volatile shifts seen in the models could continue. That being
said, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted significantly
eastward and now shows the center of Marco reaching southeastern
Louisiana in about 2 days, which is the scenario currently shown by
the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the TVCN
multi-model consensus. After Marco reaches the coast, the western
Atlantic ridge is expected to build westward and should cause the
cyclone to move more slowly toward the west-northwest across
southern portions of Louisiana.

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Louisiana’s about to get rocked

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Ok forgot that they drop dropsondes (sp?). Was thinking that they would still fly through it to collect info.

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plus do you want to put a plane in a high turbulence situation potentially right above people's homes?

(no message)

That’s why I ask questions — never even thought about that.

Thanks.

Now, anyone want to tell me their thoughts on this thing/these things and potential to go farther west???

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How sure can we be that they both will stay at Cat 1?

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Not with that much open hot water.

It’ll most definitely strengthen.

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Now, anyone want to tell me their thoughts on this thing/these things and potential to go farther west???

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if you want Laura to go into Texas... hope the centers of circulation stack up on the south side of the islands

ETA: for Marco... there may be too much shear for it to fight starting tomorrow for it to develop much more than a 1

Wtf? What a huge change for Marco from this morning. It aint looking for Louisiana. We bout to get 2 back to back....