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re: Latoya recall has failed. Only had 27k signatures. edit: 40k signatures were rejected

Posted on 3/23/23 at 8:30 pm to
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9297 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 8:30 pm to
quote:

But someone has to start to tell the story instead of just laughing at Disney names. I think it’s a real red flag that the registrar had that page as their big showcase. It was clearly meant to mock and discredit, not to tell a coherent story of what they received. It paints the registrar as opposition instead of neutral, if you step back. But too many people are eating it up still tonight. We will see where it goes. A court room is coming if Eileen’s being honest in her numbers.

Have they given us any reason to think they’re being honest, though?

I find this article from March 9 pretty interesting. I know it’s NOLA.com and all, but some excerpts:
quote:

An exhaustive review of thousands of petitions provided to The Times-Picayune by the organizers of the LaToya Cantrell recall campaign shows they contained 32,228 signatures, far short of the threshold needed to put the question on the ballot.

But it’s unclear how many signatures are on a batch of roughly 7,000 documents that the organizers did not provide, despite a court order requiring them to provide the newspaper with copies of all petitions.
quote:

According to the Orleans Parish Registrar of Voters, the recall’s organizers turned in approximately 17,400 sheets of paper to election officials, while providing just 10,000 sheets to the newspaper.
quote:

Under state law, all recall petition sheets are public records, but recall organizers ignored multiple requests for copies, leading the newspaper to file suit.

Those signatures were finally handed over after the newspaper sought to have the organizers held in contempt of court for ignoring a consent judgment signed by both parties.
quote:

For unknown reasons, the recall campaign submitted nearly as many sheets of paper on the second deadline as on the first. About 9,000 pages were turned in initially, followed by another 8,400 on the second deadline, according to Ryan Luminais, a lawyer at the firm Sher Garner who represents Wilson.
quote:

In addition to the signatures with flaws, reporters identified hundreds of pages that appear to have been scanned twice, totaling nearly 1,700 signatures. It’s unclear whether any of the sheets turned into the registrar were duplicates.

A similar overall count was obtained by analyzing the records using Pinpoint, a new Google tool that aids in sifting through large numbers of documents. That analysis also suggested the records could contain thousands of additional duplicates that were not caught in the manual count.
quote:

As they declared victory with a brass band on Ash Wednesday, recall leaders said they couldn’t reveal how many signatures they had because of pending litigation against Secretary of State Kyle Ardoin. But even though that litigation has been resolved in their favor, recall leaders have given no updates.

Recall leader Eileen Carter said that day that the campaign was opaque by design.

“You don’t tell your opposition where you are, you don’t pinpoint your location. This is strategy, ‘The Art of War’,” Carter said. “You have built your trust with us, and we ask you to hold on just a little bit more.”
quote:

After the Feb. 28 hand-off, a lawyer for the newspaper asked the recall campaign how many signatures they had collected in total versus the number disclosed.

“They produced everything that they had copies of. We do not have any document which shows the total number of signatures or the number produced,” said Blake Arcuri, a recall campaign attorney.

These just don’t strike me as people who have any idea what they’re doing, much less any confidence that they are actually getting hosed by the registrar. If Eileen is certain they had 100k signatures, why did they defy a court order and then fail to turn over 7,000 documents submitted to the registrar? Wouldn’t you want the media to know you have all those signatures?

Reading the statements from the registrar today, it sounds like the Donald Duck signatures actually came from the first batch. They are saying the second batch consisted almost entirely of duplicates from the first batch. I think the Donald Duck signatures are an easy thing to hold up in front of a camera and say “what the hell, man?” while thousands of duplicate pages are a bit more difficult to show the public.

That’s without even addressing the obvious question of why they wouldn’t have submitted valid signatures on time in the first place. Even if that second batch did have an additional 18k valid signatures there’s no way they were all collected during the 5-day grace period.

My guess is they knew they were fricked, turned in a shite ton of duplicates, and are now trying to save face publicly. I hope I’m wrong because I would love to see this move to a vote.. but I just don’t find these folks to be all that credible. If this goes to court we will find out, I suppose.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84831 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 9:19 pm to
quote:

Remind me, how does a sheet that is thrown out being included or excluded from the submission actually move that needle?


There was obviously little to no quality control being done
Posted by tes fou
Member since Feb 2014
838 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 10:12 pm to
Why would a court order a private group to hand over “public” documents, clearly the intent of the statute relating to public records is that once submitted to the government office that processes them they become part of public record and the government is then obligated to disclose them.

Judge is a jackass.
Posted by GITiger66
Member since Dec 2019
225 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 10:17 pm to
JBE is a POS and was never going to let this happen. All of those NOLA “voters” are the only reason that he got elected.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9297 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

Why would a court order a private group to hand over “public” documents, clearly the intent of the statute relating to public records is that once submitted to the government office that processes them they become part of public record and the government is then obligated to disclose them.

Have you actually read the statute? Because that is clearly not the intent:
quote:

§1300.5. Chairman and vice chairman designated in petition; petition designated as a public record

. . .

B. Upon the signature of the first elector, the recall petition, including the name, address, and signature of each elector who has signed thereon, shall be a public record. The chairman, or the vice chairman when acting as the chairman, shall be the custodian thereof. The petition and the custodian shall be subject to all of the provisions of R.S. 44:31 et seq.

C. Upon the filing of the petition pursuant to R.S. 18:1300.2(C)(2), the chairman, or the vice chairman when acting as chairman, shall no longer be the custodian thereof.

The statute goes out of its way to clarify that the petition becomes public record as soon as the first signature is recorded, with the chairman of the recall committee as custodian subject to public records requirements.

Once it’s submitted the records request would go to the registrar, but the lawsuit was filed nearly 2 months prior to the submission date.
Posted by NoSaint
Member since Jun 2011
11268 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 10:34 pm to
quote:

There was obviously little to no quality control being done


Counter: this was in a batch that was accepted at essentially the national average rate of signatures during successful recalls.

So it seems batch 1, despite a silly haha form being included, was actually turned in at normally expected standards. It was done well.

Batch 2 has the registrar saying it was just a photo copy of batch 1 and nothing more, the governors office saying it was non electorates signing, and the petitioner saying they turned in a copy of batch one plus a full second batch that is somehow unaccounted for .

Today was a real strange day in headlines and people are getting hung up in meaningless details instead of seeing the just massive and unexplained gaps
This post was edited on 3/23/23 at 10:47 pm
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
43700 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 11:26 pm to
Lawsuit will be filed when and where
Posted by White Roach
Member since Apr 2009
9451 posts
Posted on 3/23/23 at 11:40 pm to
That Farrell guy who funded the recall effort to something like the tune of $1.2 million must feel like an a-hole now.
Either he was paying zero attention to what was going on or he's among the very gullible. And I don't think he's gullible. Look for a lawsuit to be filed by him in the near future.
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
66708 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 6:42 am to
congrats Nola! You and Latoya are the perfect match!
Posted by Havoc
Member since Nov 2015
28200 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 10:09 am to
Not sure how clarifying this is:
quote:

Recall organizers said the math doesn’t add up. In a press conference immediately following the registrar’s, Eileen Carter and Belden Batiste claimed they turned in 100,000 signatures and sent in copies on purpose.

“What we did was, the second batch was partially a full copy of everything we had,” Carter said. “Why? Because we didn’t trust that [Wilson] wasn’t going to lose something so we had a fail-safe for us and put extras in every box to make sure they were opened.”

Video statement in LINK.
Saying the duplicates provided in the second batch was done on purpose. But also seems to imply that the second batch wasn't 100% duplicates just that they were included.

Seems like either 99.5% of the second batch were duplicates OR they were all subject to some disqualifying procedural standard like improper date or something. As in the duplicate issue may be a red herring by Wilson and there was another more technical reason they were kicked out.

ETA: if you turned in 100,000 signatures and Z% of them were duplicates then you didn't turn in 100,000 signatures, you turned in X with Y being duplicates. Now just solve X and Y and go from there FFS.

ETA2: LINK
Video @ 2:30 - Duplicates of 5000 in the second batch, later(3:45) “the majority” were duplicates.
This post was edited on 3/24/23 at 10:23 am
Posted by NoSaint
Member since Jun 2011
11268 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 11:42 am to
Ultimately, it’s the classic “I give you $100 and you give me $33 in change” situation

Do you say I gave you 100 and change was returned or $67 was the net?

It’s not complicated but the registrar is currently claiming they received only 67 AND additionally returned the $33 in change…. And look at this penny that was included is actually a button (the Disney page)!
This post was edited on 3/24/23 at 11:45 am
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9297 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 3:48 pm to
I’m going to attempt to use math to dissect some of this…

According to the NOLA article I posted from March 9, the registrar’s office said they received ~9,000 pages in the first batch and ~8,400 pages in the second batch. Keep in mind this was before any actual signature counts were released. Meanwhile, the recall campaign sent NOLA 10,000 pages of documents.

The registrar reported 34,625 signatures in the first batch and 32,421 in the second batch. NOLA reported 32,228 in the documents they received.

So, to tally it all up:
- First batch: 9,000 pages / 34,625 signatures / 3.85 signatures per page
- Second batch: 8,400 pages / 32,421 signatures / 3.86 signatures per page
- NOLA docs: 10,000 pages / 32,228 signatures / 3.23 signatures per page

So looking at it strictly in terms of signatures per document submitted, it seems to align pretty well between the two batches. It’s interesting that the 10k pages that the organizers sent to NOLA/TP actually had less signatures per page.

Meanwhile, Eileen says that the second batch included a copy of the entire first batch. How can that be possible when they submitted fewer documents in the second batch?

Regarding the number of duplicates in the second batch - I noticed something in the registrar’s report:




There is actually a separate line item for “duplicate” and it shows 1,587 signatures in the first batch + 4,783 in the second batch. This might be where the statement of “5,000 duplicates” is coming from.

However, reason #8 under “other” says “document not original.” It’s possible that photocopies got bounced under this category, rather than “duplicate.” This might mean that the 5k duplicates were actually duplicate original signatures, or it might mean that some reviewers flagged these photocopies as “duplicate” while others flagged them as “document not original.” My guess is that it’s the latter.
Posted by GreatLakesTiger24
COINTELPRO Fan
Member since May 2012
55554 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

There was obviously little to no quality control being done
it seemed very legit when I signed it
Posted by NoSaint
Member since Jun 2011
11268 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 4:08 pm to
Honestly, if the issue is truly dupes, their quality control was pretty solid. The rejection rate was normal outside of the massive question mark. Nothing from the registrar indicates it’s 30k fake and unverified names
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
84831 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

it seemed very legit when I signed it


It did to me too.

That’s apparently where their operation ended. If you were at all serious about recalling the mayor you would have had a thorough quality control process after the fact, the kind of thing that would weed out a page full of cartoon characters getting through. Even if that’s an anomaly, that it got through gives the sense that the recall effort was an actual clown show.
This post was edited on 3/24/23 at 9:04 pm
Posted by Havoc
Member since Nov 2015
28200 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 8:58 pm to
Does this theory hold water?: The Registrar rejected the bulk of the second batch based on procedural/statutorial defects (that could be subject to court interpretation of the statute) but is downplaying it in order to try to avoid litigation on the issue(s).

Because after all this we still have those 99.5% of the second batch being rejected with little real explanation.
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
43700 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 9:33 pm to
Litigation has to be coming
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
73674 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 9:34 pm to
It was coming no matter the numbers.
Posted by Bushmaster
19th Hole
Member since Oct 2008
39618 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 9:37 pm to
Are you a Latoya supporter?
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9297 posts
Posted on 3/24/23 at 9:58 pm to
quote:

Does this theory hold water?: The Registrar rejected the bulk of the second batch based on procedural/statutorial defects (that could be subject to court interpretation of the statute) but is downplaying it in order to try to avoid litigation on the issue(s).

Maybe but I doubt it. I think it’s more likely they held up the low hanging fruit “Donald Duck” signatures in a press conference simply because of how ridiculous it was, while the rest were rejected on pretty solid grounds that just aren’t as interesting.

The signatures are public record so it’ll come out one way or another. I just don’t know how anyone can listen to the organizers and think “man, these people got shafted.” For all the talk of how the registrar hasn’t given a conclusive answer - what about the organizers? Have they given any plausible explanation of how they could have possibly obtained the additional 18,000 signatures they needed (after the first batch) in 5 days?

All they’ve really said is “yeah we turned in duplicates. But we did it on purpose!”
quote:

Because after all this we still have those 99.5% of the second batch being rejected with little real explanation.

The explanation I’m hearing is that they were photocopies of sheets which had already been submitted. I do agree it would be nice for either side to provide more clarity on the specific numbers.
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