re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The Ukrainians are killing a Russian general every 6.5 days.

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We should add senior Colonels to that list as well. The Ukrainians are whittling away at the senior command structure for Russian forces. Which is a concern for Russia because they have a heavy "top down" command structure.

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time... "you get a nuke, you get a nuke, everyone gets a nuke."

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Japan has its own destroyers which carry SM3 ABMs and have the Aegis ashore ABM system. Plus all of the USN assets in Okinawa which have ABM capability. As well as the ThAADS and the SM3 equipped Aegis destroys deployed around North Korea.

In Europe, the every USN destroyer in theater has SM3s on board. There is a Aegis Ashore system that is nearing completion in Poland. Plus several nations have Patriot missile systems that can engage ballistic missiles.

Russia has a stockpile of almost 6000 nukes but not all of them are ready to fire. The USA and Russia still have multiple treaties in effect which allows each other to verify the status of each other’s nuclear arsenals. Per wikipedia which cited the most recently published inspection reports, the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces have 1600 nuclear warheads deployed. Those are mounted on the R28 and the older R36 missile which each carry 10 MERVs. So that is only 160 or so missiles for NATO and or Japan’s ABM systems to shoot down. Again according to wikipedia who is using the most recent inspection reports as sources, the Russian navy has 96 nuclear missiles deployed on its 12 ballistic missile submarines, but one has been converted to a training vessel with its 10 missiles removed and missile tubes disabled. Another one is currently in dry dock for long term retrofit. The other 10 subs are in port at the moment and NATO has 51 attack submarines ready to shadow them and destroy them before launch if necessary.

Not to dismiss the threat of Russia’s nuclear weapons but NATO and Japan are not defenseless against them. Also Putin might have miscalculated Ukraine’s ability and resolve to fight and the west’s resolve to help Ukraine. However, he is still a smart and savvy world leader. He knows that attacking NATO or Japan with nukes would be the end of Russia. Russia only has 30 of the new S500 ABM batteries and most of those are testing platforms. The S300 does have the ability to intercept ballistic missiles but only if the launcher is 120 - 400 km from the launch point of the ballistic missile. Moscow is still protected by the cold war era A135 system but it’s 40 years old and only has 68 interceptors. St Petersburg and every other Russian city or military target would be defenseless against a nuclear counter strike. Putin is not stupid and after the failure of his convention military to perform as advertised in Ukraine he is probably having doubts about his nuclear forces to perform as advertised as well. He might threaten to use nukes but I doubt he actually does it.

I’m under the impression this last push is the last push, but he’s prepared to sacrifice 100k in KWM in order to get his land bridge to Crimea but that means he’s going to have to hold what he’s got and that’s not guaranteed. The Donbas may be up for grabs in about a week.

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Not to dismiss the threat of Russia’s nuclear weapons but NATO and Japan are not defenseless against them.

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There is a difference between not being defenseless against a missile and provoking Russia into a massive launch to defend their home country from getting gobbled up because their conventional military is deader than disco.

Even if we managed an astounding 99% interception rate we'd still be screwed... most Russian ICBMs carry multiple warheads after all.

We keep the fighting in the Ukraine and Russia. To put it this way... me and two of my friends are armed with baseball bats and we back you into a corner and announce we are going to slowly beat you to death. There isn't a whole hell of a lot you can do to stop us, but you do have a hand grenade. Wouldn't you pull the pin and try to take us with you?

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We should add senior Colonels to that list as well. The Ukrainians are whittling away at the senior command structure for Russian forces. Which is a concern for Russia because they have a heavy "top down" command structure.

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It’s like the Russians don’t understand that Ukrainians are virtually the same as them and can easily infiltrate every facet of Russian life and their military. They even speak Russian without an accent. Easiest spy program ever and the consistent killing of Russia’s military elite proves it.

You’d have thought old Putin “The Pooter” would have gone after Kazahkstan or Uzbekistan as his first acquisition into the New Russian Empire. They speak Russian but at least they look a bit different.

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that certain high value items are being picked off on a regular basis, nighttime is the right time.

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I saw 3 T80s in a row destroyed, but they were in a field and off the road so thats real progress.

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I know who knows where they all are, the US Navy

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I’m a US submarine veteran with plenty of experience on “tracking parties.” Tracking a submerged submarine is a lot harder than it looks in the movies. Russia in particular likes to hide them under the ice, which reflects sound like a mofo making it hard to get an accurate solution without using extensive active sonar and exposing yourself.

For the US subs who may be sitting under the arctic shadowing Russian boomers, they’re also communication limited since they have to bust through the ice (which is loud) to get a good signal. Unless they’re sitting on orders to “Shoot down any unknown sub attempting to break the ice” orders - it’ll be some delay before they actually know there’s a war going on.

The US is actually running low with 51 attack subs vs the fleet requirements of about 65 at the moment (based on needing to monitor both Russia and China, and allow for training and maintenance of our own fleet.) This stems from Clinton era budget cuts eliminating most of the Seawolf budget.