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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:02 pm to AU86
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:02 pm to AU86
quote:
I.have been telling you for months that if Ukraine doesn't take a.settlement Russia will take at least eight oblasts.
Reality is now hitting you in the face.
Russia will fight until it happens. One, two or three years, it doesn't matter. No way Ukraine can sustain for that length of time.
At the rate they've been gaining ground, it will probably be longer than 3 years.
3
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:05 pm to doubleb
Answer one basic question: Who is going to stop them?
They can cut a deal now or be totally defeated militarily.
It doesn't really matter. Russia is going to take it anyways.
All I read on here is how little ground Russia has taken, if that is true why are you worried about a third attack? I keep seeing on here that Russia can't defeat them anyways. So which is it?
Russia up until this point doesn't have to worry about territory if they are destroying Ukraine's fighting force. When that point is reached Russia will be able to take as much territory as it wants. They have played the long game: demilitarize Ukraine by destroying Ukraine's army and exhaust the resources coming from the west.
Who is going to provide Ukraine security guarantees? NO ONE IS.
We know one thing for sure, Ukraine is not taking back any territory. They have been losing for 18-24 months now.
Ukraine and the west have had several off ramps going back to the Minsk agreements. Each and every proposed agreement has only gotten worse for Ukraine each time. The west has used Ukraine. The longer Ukraine fights the worse it gets for them.
Ukraine is screwed.
They are going down the path of Germany in WWII.
They can cut a deal now or be totally defeated militarily.
It doesn't really matter. Russia is going to take it anyways.
All I read on here is how little ground Russia has taken, if that is true why are you worried about a third attack? I keep seeing on here that Russia can't defeat them anyways. So which is it?
Russia up until this point doesn't have to worry about territory if they are destroying Ukraine's fighting force. When that point is reached Russia will be able to take as much territory as it wants. They have played the long game: demilitarize Ukraine by destroying Ukraine's army and exhaust the resources coming from the west.
Who is going to provide Ukraine security guarantees? NO ONE IS.
We know one thing for sure, Ukraine is not taking back any territory. They have been losing for 18-24 months now.
Ukraine and the west have had several off ramps going back to the Minsk agreements. Each and every proposed agreement has only gotten worse for Ukraine each time. The west has used Ukraine. The longer Ukraine fights the worse it gets for them.
Ukraine is screwed.
They are going down the path of Germany in WWII.
This post was edited on 5/16/25 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:11 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
At the rate they've been gaining ground, it will probably be longer than 3 years.
Do you honestly believe that the US is going to continue to supply Ukraine for 3 years? No way that is going to happen. If the US pulls out they will crumble like the ARVN did in 75.
Europe can't do it. They are a paper tiger. Even Macron is saying that they are played out. Britain? Germany?
It boils down to basic math. Who has the most resources in personnel or equipment? It ain't Ukraine. Example: Germany vs the Soviets in 44-45.
LOL
This post was edited on 5/16/25 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:32 pm to AU86
ISW Update May 16 2025
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on May 16 but made little progress towards agreeing to a full ceasefire or a peace settlement to Russia's war against Ukraine.
Medinsky highlighted that Russia is prepared to continue its war in Ukraine for years to come.
The Kremlin has repeatedly publicly demanded that Ukraine cede all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts – even the territory that Russian forces currently do not occupy - but had not formally demanded that Ukraine cede all of Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts before the May 16 Istanbul meeting.
ISW has consistently assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not compromise in peace negotiations unless Ukraine and the West inflict significant battlefield and economic losses on Russia and force Putin to rethink his theory of victory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly approved a series of command changes in the Russian military, including a new Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces.
Russian forces are continuing to expand their salient northeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Toretsk, although it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will prioritize further advances towards Kostyantynivka or Pokrovsk during Summer 2025.
Russia is unlikely to have sufficient manpower, materiel, and operational planning capabilities to conduct both an envelopment of Pokrovsk and a significant offensive operation toward Kostyantynivka in the coming months.
Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka and in the Zaporizhia direction.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:44 pm to AU86
quote:
Do you honestly believe that the US is going to continue to supply Ukraine for 3 years? No way that is going to happen.
Based on what?
quote:
Europe can't do it. They are a paper tiger. Even Macron is saying that they are played out. Britain? Germany?
If you look at the defense spending projections, the longer the conflict goes on, the more time Europe has to rearm.
Russia's best way to win is to hope the alliance gets tired of supporting Ukraine. Their battlefield gains don't suggest they have the ability to take over another region of Ukraine, let alone four more.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 10:51 pm to AU86
quote:
Ukraine is screwed.
They were screwed when Putin decided to take Crimea and no one did anything.
But they are making Russia pay dearly now and Rusdia is praying they give up because the longer it goes on the more it costs Russia.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 11:02 pm to doubleb
quote:
Ukrsine
quote:
Rusdia
quote:
gusrsntees
quote:
I’ll go slower this time so you can catch up.
I thought you were going to go slower, not have a stroke?
Posted on 5/16/25 at 11:04 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
At the rate they've been gaining ground, it will probably be longer than 3 years.
This will drag a long while and then Russia will start taking chunks. It's just like the latter part of WW1, as Darth pointed out a while back. Not sure when, but it's coming unless BIG changes are made.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 11:12 pm to doubleb
quote:
But they are making Russia pay dearly now and Rusdia is praying they give up because the longer it goes on the more it costs Russia.
You didn't answer my question. Who is going to stop them? If the answer is they can't be stopped what is the purpose of continuing the war? How can Ukraine reverse this?
I would say that Ukraine is paying a higher price than Russia. Do you honestly believe that Putin cares how much it costs in terms of human lives? Their economy is growing because of the war. They are actually getting stronger. The sanctions have failed.
You are talking about a country that was willing to sacrifice millions in Stalingrad and Leningrad alone during WWII. The Russians are willing to sacrifice.
Putin has successfully portrayed this as an existential fight for the motherland to the Russian people. They haven't even fully mobilized yet.
Posted on 5/16/25 at 11:18 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
If you look at the defense spending projections, the longer the conflict goes on, the more time Europe has to rearm.
Do you think the war can last for another 8-10 years? That is the projection for Europe rearming.
Even the head if Nato admitted that Russia was out pacing the west by 4 times currently.
Poland is the only serious player in Europe that actually backs up their words when it comes to rearming.
This post was edited on 5/16/25 at 11:23 pm
Posted on 5/16/25 at 11:25 pm to AU86
quote:
Do you think the war can last for another 8-10 years? That is the projection for Europe rearming
It is going to be a geopolitical flashpoint for the rest of the century.
quote:
Poland is the only serious player in Europe that actually backs up their words when it comes to rearming.
The difference was Poland began its rearmament program around 2018, while France, the UK and Germany began various reorganization plans in 2022 and 2023.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 12:17 am to doubleb
quote:
They were screwed when Putin decided to take Crimea and no one did anything.
But they are making Russia pay dearly now and Rusdia is praying they give up because the longer it goes on the more it costs Russia.
Except it costs Ukraine far more at a growing rate.
The blissful indifference to what it's actually costing Ukrainians is peak NAFO. Ukrainians have thousands of acres of cemeteries filled with corpses of their men, they're being kept inside the country to continue drawing the pool for meat fodder and 1/3 of them fled while they had a chance. They have essentially no economy, their infrastructure is reset back to pre-USSR days. When the war is over most won't come back and many more will flee because of internal struggles that will inevitably follow.
But " Russia pays". Russia probably had the biggest transformation and modernization to new style warfare since WW2 and also gained about 2 million in Ukrainan migrants, offsetting their losses, which are still smaller than Ukraine's.
This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 12:19 am
Posted on 5/17/25 at 12:26 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
At the rate they've been gaining ground, it will probably be longer than 3 years.
You were shocked that Russia gains 20 sq. km every day last several weeks up from 10-15 last several months because you don't actually follow any reliable military bloggers and mappers. If you just rely on pro-Ukrainan rosy updates on here(which are peak cope selectio) it will seem suprising to you that Russia is making increasing gains constantly and has been gaining daily 9:1 or 10:1 land gains relatively to Ukraine basically the last 2 years with a short exception of Ukrainian Kursk blitz, which Ukrainians now completely lost and got pushed out even further into their own territory.
Let it sink in that Ukraine couldn't hold 1,000sq km of Russian land for a year while Russia has been holding 112,000 sq. km for 3 years and constantly expanding it. In the meantime Ukraine and Zelensky and his pimps turned Ukraine into Worse Korea 2.0
Posted on 5/17/25 at 12:45 am to PoppedRiser
quote:
But " Russia pays". Russia probably had the biggest transformation and modernization to new style warfare since WW2 and also gained about 2 million in Ukrainan migrants, offsetting their losses, which are still smaller than Ukraine's.
My Man. You actually get what is happening big picture. Congratulations, they are not many that have that type of in depth and detailed understanding of the situation. It won't be long before the NAFO trolls will be accusing you of being paid by Putin
Posted on 5/17/25 at 12:53 am to PoppedRiser
Rostselmash, based in Rostov-on-Don, a major manufacturor of combines and other agricultural equipment as well as road building equipment, stops production in June due to a collapse in sales.
January-April
Grain harvesters: -76% y/y
Forage harvesters: -49%
Tractors: -48% y/y
Established in 1929, by 1984 Rostselmash was producing two million harvesters per year.
.
Too bad they can't buy shares of donkey producers, that market segment has been hot and will only go up from here.
January-April
Grain harvesters: -76% y/y
Forage harvesters: -49%
Tractors: -48% y/y
Established in 1929, by 1984 Rostselmash was producing two million harvesters per year.
.
quote:
Rostselmash now sells to more than 35 countries and opened its first office in Germany last year. When Vladimir Putin gathered his advisers for a meeting on the development of regional industry earlier this year, they met at Rostselmash.
— The Economist, November 8, 2018.
Too bad they can't buy shares of donkey producers, that market segment has been hot and will only go up from here.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 3:24 am to Coeur du Tigre
Putinzuela is what some are calling Russia now.
The Central Bank is struggling to keep the Rubble (sic intended) under control. Inflation is over 10% so interest rates are kept at 21%.
Normal businesses operate on borrowed money, even companies like Exxon borrow money for any new development be it chemical plant, refining expansion or oil field. How many businesses can afford 20+% interest rates? Not even Exxon can survive that. Profit margins are not what people think they are. Maybe you local yokel contractor is allowed to make that kind of profit. Major industrial engineering/construction companies jump for joy if they make 10% profit in a project.
The Central Bank is struggling to keep the Rubble (sic intended) under control. Inflation is over 10% so interest rates are kept at 21%.
Normal businesses operate on borrowed money, even companies like Exxon borrow money for any new development be it chemical plant, refining expansion or oil field. How many businesses can afford 20+% interest rates? Not even Exxon can survive that. Profit margins are not what people think they are. Maybe you local yokel contractor is allowed to make that kind of profit. Major industrial engineering/construction companies jump for joy if they make 10% profit in a project.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 6:35 am to CitizenK
SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre
@StratcomCentre
·
5h
Russians continue to hunt civilians with drones strikes not only in Kherson, but now in Mykolaiv and Sumy as well.
Today, Russians struck a van full of mostly women, in the Sumy region, killing 9.
Russian culture is this.
@StratcomCentre
·
5h
Russians continue to hunt civilians with drones strikes not only in Kherson, but now in Mykolaiv and Sumy as well.
Today, Russians struck a van full of mostly women, in the Sumy region, killing 9.
Russian culture is this.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 6:52 am to PoppedRiser
These people are so out of touch with reality it is mind blowing. They simply will not accept or admit reality. It is actually shocking. They totally swallow the bullshite that comes.out of the likes of Ben Hodges and Michael Clark. They are like a damn woman: base all of your opinions/decisions on emotion. They actually believe Trump is going to fund this madness for 3 more years or that Europe can sustain Ukraine.
They scream Putin doesn't want to stop the war. If the side that is losing the war doesn't accept your terms why should he stop? He is winning.
It is like saying the allies should have abandoned their unconditional surrender terms to Germany and settled for lesser terms. Who was winning and there was overwhelming evidence that they could force their terms by conquest.
I guess some.on here believe that Germany's strategy of never surrender, fight to the last man against overwhelming odds will work for Ukraine.
And doubleb continues to dodge my question: Who is going to stop them?
They scream Putin doesn't want to stop the war. If the side that is losing the war doesn't accept your terms why should he stop? He is winning.
It is like saying the allies should have abandoned their unconditional surrender terms to Germany and settled for lesser terms. Who was winning and there was overwhelming evidence that they could force their terms by conquest.
I guess some.on here believe that Germany's strategy of never surrender, fight to the last man against overwhelming odds will work for Ukraine.
And doubleb continues to dodge my question: Who is going to stop them?
This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 7:18 am
Posted on 5/17/25 at 7:23 am to PoppedRiser
quote:
You were shocked that Russia gains 20 sq. km every day last several weeks up from 10-15 last several months because you don't actually follow any reliable military bloggers and mappers.
Nah, that's not reflected on any of the major maps by either side. And the amount of ground the RGF has gained west of Bahkmut makes me very skeptical of your claim.
quote:
Let it sink in that Ukraine couldn't hold 1,000sq km of Russian land for a year while Russia has been holding 112,000 sq. km for 3 years and constantly expanding it. In the meantime Ukraine and Zelensky and his pimps turned Ukraine into Worse Korea 2.0
Lol. Russia was supposed to be the near-peer to the US. Instead they got bogged down by a country that is more than 100 million people smaller and in 3 years of fighting, haven't seen out any of their original war goals. Cope bitch.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 7:29 am to AU86
quote:
Who was winning and there was overwhelming evidence that they could force their terms by conquest.
Why haven't they forced their terms by conquest already? They've been bogged down for a few years now. If their victory requires the absence of Western arms, then that's not the flex you think it is. Before you accuse anyone of being emotional (lol have you read your own posts?) think about what that means. The mere support of the West, often inconsistent, is enough to keep this mighty new transformed Russia, suffering from severe demographic crisis, into a new modern state? Color me skeptical.
This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 7:30 am
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