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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:17 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:17 am to VolSquatch
quote:
I think its pretty clear they only really care about the resources in the east (Crimea and a land bridge to Crimea being a resource in this case).
The coal mines in the east were kept in operation only with heavy subsidies from the Ukrainian government, pre 2014. Shell was drilling to find where the sweet spot was for hydraulic fracturing in 2012-2014. Russia doesn't have that expertise. The largest Neon extraction plant in the world was in Mariupol, but was turned into rubble. It is extracted from a neon rich natural gas stream from Russia. It's a critical gas used in chip manufacturing.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:19 am to cypher
LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - Reuters has seen the text of a set of proposals on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine that were given to the U.S. side on Wednesday by Ukrainian and European officials at talks in London.
The text of the document is published in full with no changes.
OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE
Russia-Ukraine Deal Framework
Ceasefire:
Commit to a full and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land and at sea.
Both sides immediately enter into negotiations on technical implementation with the participation of the US and European countries. This is in parallel to preparation of the agenda and modalities for a full peace deal.
Ceasefire monitoring, led by the US and supported by third countries.
Russia must unconditionally return all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children. Exchange of all prisoners of war (the principle of "all for all"). Russia must release all civilian prisoners.
Security guarantees for Ukraine:
Ukraine receives robust security guarantees including from the US (Article 5-like agreement), while there is no consensus among Allies on NATO membership.
No restrictions on the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The guarantor states will be an ad hoc group of European countries and willing non-European countries. No restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine pursues accession to the EU.
Territory:
Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved after a full and unconditional ceasefire.
Territorial negotiations start from the basis of the line of control.
Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with US involvement, and also the Kakhovka Dam
Ukraine enjoys unhindered passages on the Dnieper River and control of the KinburnSpit.
Economics:
US and Ukraine implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement.
Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to resumption in the event of a breach of the peace agreement (snapback).
Reporting by Reuters, Editing by Timothy Heritage
The text of the document is published in full with no changes.
OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE
Russia-Ukraine Deal Framework
Ceasefire:
Commit to a full and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land and at sea.
Both sides immediately enter into negotiations on technical implementation with the participation of the US and European countries. This is in parallel to preparation of the agenda and modalities for a full peace deal.
Ceasefire monitoring, led by the US and supported by third countries.
Russia must unconditionally return all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children. Exchange of all prisoners of war (the principle of "all for all"). Russia must release all civilian prisoners.
Security guarantees for Ukraine:
Ukraine receives robust security guarantees including from the US (Article 5-like agreement), while there is no consensus among Allies on NATO membership.
No restrictions on the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The guarantor states will be an ad hoc group of European countries and willing non-European countries. No restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine pursues accession to the EU.
Territory:
Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved after a full and unconditional ceasefire.
Territorial negotiations start from the basis of the line of control.
Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with US involvement, and also the Kakhovka Dam
Ukraine enjoys unhindered passages on the Dnieper River and control of the KinburnSpit.
Economics:
US and Ukraine implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement.
Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to resumption in the event of a breach of the peace agreement (snapback).
Reporting by Reuters, Editing by Timothy Heritage
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:25 am to doubleb
quote:
I do not disagree with your basic premise. Ukraine will eventually run out of manpower before Russia does. That is a certainty.
The question is how long will that take. It had already lasted over three years.
Well, as I posted last night, Ukraine is already cannibalizing rear area air defense units and sending barely trained older men to the front with rifles in their hands that the men don’t know how to properly use. When a country does these things, it’s a clear indicator that country has exhausted its manpower reserves.
quote:
Now answer this. If Russia and Ukraine go the distance, what has Russia gained? Are they safer? Do they gain an enormous opportunity to plunder? Or do they inherit a country that is rubble and that gated them?
You’re thinking of this from a Western perspective. Russians don’t think like that. They don’t care that the county is devastated or that the people there, the few who remain anyway, hate them. Russia wants two things:
1. Buffer space between them and the West.
2. Resources.
Controlling Ukraine, even a devastated and depopulated Ukraine gives them both.
quote:
Russia has had enough. They are ready to deal. The cost of victory is way more than the net overall “profit”.
Russia would like to end the war. Putin would be happy to end it right now so long as Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over the areas it has conquered. But Zelensky doesn’t want to accept that. So, the war goes on.
And I understand the emotional pull to keep fighting and not accept defeat. But here’s the thing, and what Zelensky, Ukraine, and its allies are going to have to come to term with very soon; Ukraine lacks the military capability to retake any appreciable amount of the ground Russia currently holds. They might be able to reclaim a village here, a few kilometers of ground there. But Ukraine lacks sufficient troop reserves to launch an offensive that could make a strategic difference to the overall situation. And as I pointed out, no amount of aid or money from the West can change this fact.
Russia knows this. Anyone with even passing military knowledge knows this. So Russia has the advantage. Yes, they’d be happy to end the war with what they have now. But they know if Ukraine refuses to accept that, all Russia has to do is keep grinding down Ukraine’s army, and sooner rather than later, that army will collapse. Then Russia will take from Ukraine whatever it wants, up to and including most, if not all, of the country.
I’m sorry, that’s the stark reality of the situation.
This post was edited on 4/25/25 at 8:27 am
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:28 am to Darth_Vader
John Barron is crying Bigly over this Russian general being blown into oblivion over on the poliboard.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:29 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
As our company represented the EU buyers, we got it in the neck over these practices as booked cargo space on container ships is expensive, especially in SA. The EU Competition Commission finally took action and Sasol was almost driven out of that market due to the fines and huge security bonds required.
Dude that is part of what the EU's climate change requirements do to keep out process equipment (and likely other goods) from the European market. At least in some cases require a useless appendage patented and only available by European (German) OEMs, even toothbrush assembly. This is comical AF when exposed.
What about how France turns a blind eye to its companies' massive bribery overseas so those profits can be brought home as they do in the Nigeria oilfields where US companies would have all of the market in certain sectors based on expertise and price.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:30 am to VolSquatch
quote:
I think its pretty clear they only really care about the resources in the east (Crimea and a land bridge to Crimea being a resource in this case).
It isn’t clear, but yes I believe they’d settle for this. It doesn’t protect to them from the Nazis or NATO, however. It doesn’t defeat the Globalists either.
Russia has gotten in deeper than they ever dreamed. They’d accept a no NATO pledge and a new faux border now.
This post was edited on 4/25/25 at 8:38 am
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:37 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I’m sorry, that’s the stark reality of the situation.
Reality is Ukraine has not gone all in yet.
There have go be thousands of 18-25 year old men that they could draw upon to fight for their survival as a nation.
Now if they don’t then the collapse will come sooner, but if they do I could sed the war last two more years.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:51 am to doubleb
The 18-25 year olds have either fled or would be poor warfighters even if drafted. Every 18-25 yo that gave a shite enlisted voluntarily within the past 3 years.
So Ukraine's last ditch "all in" ace in the hole are people that have purposely not volunteered, but once they get drafted, they'll be hard-core warfighters, huh?
That kind of ash and trash are the first ones to fleet a foxhole. Good luck with that.
So Ukraine's last ditch "all in" ace in the hole are people that have purposely not volunteered, but once they get drafted, they'll be hard-core warfighters, huh?
That kind of ash and trash are the first ones to fleet a foxhole. Good luck with that.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 8:54 am to doubleb
quote:
Reality is Ukraine has not gone all in yet. There have go be thousands of 18-25 year old men that they could draw upon to fight for their survival as a nation.
Do some research on the demographics crisis Ukraine is facing. As for survival of the country, losing their 18-25 generation will be more devastating to the survival of Ukraine than surrendering the land Russia now holds.
And even if they call up that generation of men, it will take a year, at a minimum, to train them to where they could be a viable military force capable of offensive operations. Calling them up now and feeding them into the lines without a year of training will only be leading them to slaughter for no appreciable gain.
You can’t just pull a guy off the street, give him a few weeks of training and expect him to be able to operate as an effective infantryman.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 9:46 am to Darth_Vader
So, the coalition of the willing is now just trainers?
How pathetic Europeans are.
How pathetic Europeans are.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 9:48 am to Darth_Vader
You are wasting your time arguing with stop sign man.. He has swallowed it whole. Delusional as hell. I think it is GOP Tiger's alt. Neocon to the core.
This post was edited on 4/25/25 at 9:52 am
Posted on 4/25/25 at 9:56 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
You can’t just pull a guy off the street, give him a few weeks of training and expect him to be able to operate as an effective infantryman.
Russia's way of training is just that
Posted on 4/25/25 at 9:59 am to cypher
quote:
LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - Reuters has seen the text of a set of proposals on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine that were given to the U.S. side on Wednesday by Ukrainian and European officials at talks in London.
The text of the document is published in full with no changes.
OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE
Russia-Ukraine Deal Framework
Ceasefire:
Commit to a full and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land and at sea.
Both sides immediately enter into negotiations on technical implementation with the participation of the US and European countries. This is in parallel to preparation of the agenda and modalities for a full peace deal.
Ceasefire monitoring, led by the US and supported by third countries.
Russia must unconditionally return all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children. Exchange of all prisoners of war (the principle of "all for all"). Russia must release all civilian prisoners.
Security guarantees for Ukraine:
Ukraine receives robust security guarantees including from the US (Article 5-like agreement), while there is no consensus among Allies on NATO membership.
No restrictions on the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
The guarantor states will be an ad hoc group of European countries and willing non-European countries. No restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine pursues accession to the EU.
Territory:
Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved after a full and unconditional ceasefire.
Territorial negotiations start from the basis of the line of control.
Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with US involvement, and also the Kakhovka Dam
Ukraine enjoys unhindered passages on the Dnieper River and control of the KinburnSpit.
Economics:
US and Ukraine implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement.
Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to resumption in the event of a breach of the peace agreement (snapback).
Reporting by Reuters, Editing by Timothy Heritage
Those terms are delusional.and laughable. Can you imagine dictating those terms to someone.who is winning the war?
Zelensky does not want peace. He is finished if peace comes or if he accepts Trump's terms.
The Europeans are just delusional idiots like many in this thread. Not serious people. Lost all touch with reality.
This post was edited on 4/25/25 at 10:02 am
Posted on 4/25/25 at 10:09 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Do some research on the demographics crisis Ukraine is facing. As for survival of the country, losing their 18-25 generation will be more devastating to the survival of Ukraine than surrendering the land Russia now holds.
So losing your country is better than losing a generation?
And I believe that I would accept a deal ceding conquered territories to Russia if it was a deal with teeth.
quote:
And even if they call up that generation of men, it will take a year, at a minimum, to train them to where they could be a viable military force capable of offensive operations. Calling them up now and feeding them into the lines without a year of training will only be leading them to slaughter for no appreciable gain
I agree and I’m puzzled why they haven’t already done that.
quote:
You can’t just pull a guy off the street, give him a few weeks of training and expect him to be able to operate as an effective infantryman
Understood
Posted on 4/25/25 at 10:11 am to AU86
quote:
Those terms are delusional.and laughable. Can you imagine dictating those terms to someone.who is winning the war?
It is call negotiations, Ukraine isn’t dictating anything.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 10:18 am to AU86
quote:
Commit to a full and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land and at sea.
Sounds good.
quote:
Both sides immediately enter into negotiations on technical implementation with the participation of the US and European countries. This is in parallel to preparation of the agenda and modalities for a full peace deal.
Of course.
quote:
Ceasefire monitoring, led by the US
Huh?
quote:
supported by third countries.
The coalition of the willing?
quote:
Russia must unconditionally return all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children. Exchange of all prisoners of war (the principle of "all for all"). Russia must release all civilian prisoners.
Definitely.
quote:
Ukraine receives robust security guarantees including from the US (Article 5-like agreement)
Aww for fricks sake.
quote:
No restrictions on the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
Agreed
quote:
The guarantor states will be an ad hoc group of European countries and willing non-European countries. No restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine.
Good luck with that, the UK is already pissing its pants, coalition the willing indeed.
quote:
Ukraine pursues accession to the EU.
Whatever.
quote:
Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with US involvement
quote:
US and Ukraine implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement
Becomes less interesting everyday.
quote:
Ukraine will be fully reconstructed
Ok
quote:
including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
What do the Russian think of this?
quote:
US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to resumption in the event of a breach of the peace agreement (snapback).
Fair enough.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 10:34 am to doubleb
quote:
It is call negotiations, Ukraine isn’t dictating anything.
You neocons are going to get another healthy dose of reality when this one is over.
The US is leaving again with it's tail tucked between it's legs just like in:
1. Vietnam
2. Iraq
3. Afghanistan
And now we have Ukraine.
Sooner or later you would think that you people would figure out that this policy is unsustainable and detrimental to the US. Sixty to seventy years of nothing but failure and defeat.
Russia would laugh us out of the room if those terms were presented.
This post was edited on 4/25/25 at 10:39 am
Posted on 4/25/25 at 10:37 am to CitizenK
quote:
You can’t just pull a guy off the street, give him a few weeks of training and expect him to be able to operate as an effective infantryman.
quote:
Russia's way of training is just that
Yes. And it can be effective because they have the numbers advantage, by a lot, over Ukraine. As Stalin famously said, “quantity has a quality of its own.”
Russia can afford to feed the meat grinder with barely trained conscripts. Ukraine cannot. Russia doesn’t really even have to gain ground, all they have to do is to continue to attrit the Ukrainian army until it reaches the breaking point. And that breaking point is not far away.
Again, look at the fact Ukraine is already cannibalizing rear area air defense units to put bodies in the trenches. And the fact Ukraine is increasingly sending older and unfit men to the front after little to no training. History shows these are the final death throes of a dying army.
Posted on 4/25/25 at 10:44 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russia doesn’t really even have to gain ground, all they have to do is to continue to attrit the Ukrainian army until it reaches the breaking point.
100% correct. Russia is demiltarizing Ukraine by destroying its army. Russia's army has actually grown to the.point that they have 2 major build ups in the rear that Ukraine has acknowledged. Russia can now provide better training for these troops because they don't have to insert them into the lines to plug gaps like Ukraine is having to do.
It's a numbers game. It's common sense.
doubleb believes that Ukrainian will and honor will prevail. I recall Hitler told the German people that victory was assured if only their will was as great as his. That they could overcome any shortfall if their will was great enough. How did that turn out?
This post was edited on 4/25/25 at 10:53 am
Posted on 4/25/25 at 10:48 am to doubleb
quote:
So losing your country is better than losing a generation?
Without this generation of 18-25 old males, they will lose their country. Period, full stop. Again, do some research on the demographics crisis Ukraine faces. Giving up Crimea and parts of the Donbas won’t spell the end of Ukraine.
quote:
And I believe that I would accept a deal ceding conquered territories to Russia if it was a deal with teeth.
Ukraine needs to accept the best deal it can get. Because right now they can get something resembling a decent deal that allows them to remain independent. As their army creeps closer and closer to exhaustion and collapse, that window of opportunity will rapidly close.
quote:
I agree and I’m puzzled why they haven’t already done that.
A huge portion of the 18-25 year old male population has already fled the country. What’s left isn’t enough to make a strategic difference in time to stave off the approaching defeat. For Ukraine to press their 18-25 generation into front line service is akin to Germany in 1945 pressing teenaged Hitlerjugend and Luftwaffe flak auxiliaries into shattered Volksgrenadier kampfgruppen and throwing them into the cauldron of the front to be slaughtered for no purpose or benefit in a war that’s already decided.
IN THE END IT WILL MAKE NO DIFFERENCE AND WILL ONLY WASTE A GENERATION
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