re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

Russia like the US in Vietnam can go a long ways, but like the US, they can not go on forever. They will eventually lose their will to keep it up if Ukraine doesn’t first.

---

You exist in a fantasy world. You are certified. Comparing the US situation in Vietnam to Russia's in Ukraine is laughable.

I am not seeing massive protests and unrest on the streets of Russia from it's citizens.

I will give you a Vietnam comparison that may become very relevant. The ARVN army was actually holding its own until the US.pulled all support. No ammo, no spare parts, no fuel. Then their army crumbled in short time after the US cutoff.

This is coming to Ukraine if Trump walks. Lets see how long will and honor last in the Ukrainian army when they have no ammo to defend themselves. It will become a rout like it did with the ARVN.

quote:

---

Zelensky Visits South Africa Today.

The entire nation is a shitshow and has been for a few decades.

---

Correct, but it's getting much better now. For the first time in 30 years, the ANC lost their majority in last year's national election. They lost the urban vote long before this and now they are losing their precious rural voters.

This means every motion and bill put to Parliament is now a battle of coalitions, something the ANC is really, really bad at doing. Their arrogance and entitlement over the last three decades have not been forgotten by other parties. And now the ANC has lost its place in the fiscal trough, which means there is really no government jobs or money for bribing other party members.

More importantly, the courts have never been friendly to the ANC. Just this morning (at 15 minutes after midnight SA time no less), the ANC Ministry of Finance announced they were forced to back down on another increase in the national VAT. The Democratic Alliance, the opposition (melanin challenged) party, had taken the ANC government to court to prevent this and the court agreed with the DA. So now the ANC will be forced to cut the budget instead of just running up everyone's taxes again. LINK

This is significant as it shows they still have a strong rule of law in that country. No more unilateral decisions by the ANC robbing everyone.

quote:

---

Boer farmers have been leaving for decades for other nations in Africa.

---

It can be said that every farm in Sub-Saharan Africa larger than subsistence level is managed by a farmer from South Africa. This includes Zimbabwe. But like ex-pat workers in other industries, they never permanently leave South Africa, they just work elsewhere. If you want to get anything done in any of these countries, get an appointment at the local agricultural equipment supplier and ask for the guy that speaks Afrikaans. More than likely, the owner will be Afrikaans. They are uniformly very friendly, especially to Americans, and you quickly learn 'En Boer maak a plan'. They will always make a plan.

Hell, twenty years ago the Ukrainian government also invited a bunch of South African farmers to come and work their magic. But the South Africans - notable for their ability to succeed in highly corrupt environments - found the stealing in Ukraine in those days even worse than in Africa. So they went back home.

quote:

---

Despite its abundance of natural resources, the vast majority live in poverty.

---

To this I must refer to the last 30 years of ANC rule.

quote:

---

One of its major companies, Sasol, has become a shitshow itself

---

Anyone dealing with Sasol is about to go through some very bad experiences. Sasol has always been a corporation built on a legacy of sanctions accounting, monopolistic practices, bribery and a constitutional inability to follow any legal contract. They believed they could continue these practices in Louisiana because they were too big to be held accountable. Someone should have given their legal department a primer in US court practices. If you think being 'over budget by a reported $10 billion in its Lake Charles expansion' was an accident, you don't know much about Sasol. This was just par for the course, except this time the government wasn't going to bail them out and protect them in the courts.

Today there are really two South Africa's: the Western Cape Province - Cape Town and surrounds, run since 2004 not by the ANC but by the DA; and the rest of the country. Cape Town is no longer the 'golden cage', the 'top deck of the Titanic'. It is a growing viable economy on its own with a mentality based on the rule of law that is spreading to the rest of the country. Not the other way around. Something something... Afrikaners.

Look, we could go on about this (and swap some great Afrikaner stories), but bottom line - things in South Africa are changing for the better. The whites there now aren't going anywhere. They're the tough ones that didn't emmigrate to Perth or Toronto. When Mozambique's revolutionary leader Samora Machel famously stated to other African anti-colonial leaders, "Whatever you do, don't get rid of your whites", he was talking about the Afrikaners. Today, they're still there, running everything, keeping people fed.

Go visit and see for yourself -

Architectural Digest - Why Cape Town Should Be on Every Traveler’s List

Cape Town voted the world’s top food city in 2024 Condé Nast Traveller Readers’ Choice Awards

quote:

---

Anything but a return to pre-war borders is unacceptable to the Ukraine-maxers, even if its outside of reality.

---

I’m an Ukraine supporter and I would accept a treaty that stopped the war, provided Ukraine with assurances, but included letting Russia hold what they have.

But I’m totally opposed to letting Russia keep what they have and then negotiating a treaty.

quote:

---

I am not seeing massive protests and unrest on the streets of Russia from it's citizens.

---

Everyone who protested in 2022 got sent to the Gulag then the front or straight to the front.

I never saw a protest outside of major urban areas (none in NYC) but mostly in DC.

Your comparison is ignorant AF

Ukraine Fails to Reach Deal on $2.6 Billion Debt, May Default in May – Financial Times

Ukraine has been unable to reach an agreement with investors on restructuring $2.6 billion in debt and may face default as early as May, according to the Financial Times.

Next month, Kiev is scheduled to pay $600 million on GDP-linked securities.

"The #Ukrainian government must decide whether to default on a nearly $600 million payment due at the end of May, tied to the country’s 2023 economic performance, if a restructuring deal cannot be reached in time," the FT reports.

Ukraine’s Finance Ministry stated it is "considering all available options" and will continue talks with creditors.

The IMF previously warned that failure to resolve the issue surrounding these warrants poses a “serious risk” to the stability of Ukraine’s current $15.5 billion aid program and the broader $20+ billion debt restructuring agreed last year.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

Apparently Zelensky is super addicted to coke. Would explain his erratic behavior

I have worked with Sasol and also an attempt to compete with Sasol in FT wax market, by purchasing Juniper and completing it. Product is $2 to $10 per pound synthetic hard waxes, not less expensive candle wax. The other competitor would have been Shell. Ever since Conoco Chemicals was sold to Vista, it had Sasol in the background, as Vista, Condea Vista then finally officially Sasol.

Per a friend, from childhood, who recently retired from Sasol, it had only recently become a shitshow.