re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

From previous posts it was stated that Russia was having to use their reserves to cover their shortfalls so I’m guessing that they will continue to do this to fund their budget and their war.

How long will they maintain this strategy? As long as Putin wants, but the point about them not causing problems for their neighbors in the near future seems to be correct. They will most likely have to recharge their batteries.

But this brings up the question, if Russia finally managed to vanquish Ukraine, what will they be able to do with it? Hoskw can they rebuild? How can they take advantage of their ill gotten gains?

Is China the answer?

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Their reserves aren't infinite. I have read that they are increasing taxes to fund the war.

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No they are not, but political pressure in the Russian system doesn’t work like it does in the US. Putin will keep the war going until he wins.
The definition of win is up for debate, but unless his inner circle stages a palace coup thd Russian masses will do without.

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Their reserves aren't infinite. I have read that they are increasing taxes to fund the war.

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As to reserves, accurate forex data is hard to come by as the Ru Central Bank doesn't publish data on the gross amounts nor composition. Only by looking at indirect data (trading partner reports) may an approach be made.

But most of these records are incomplete and/or inaccurate. First of all, if you could get the records, you would be looking indirectly at the trading by various oligarchs, which makes up a completely separate economy. That forex has nothing to do with the Central Bank, and the Central Bank governors are not asking about it either. But it clearly has to be classified as indirectly part of the national reserve as it acts in the same manner.

The only other significant forex trading is by the Indians and Chinese, who do everything to both hide the trades and understate value. Finally, there is the underlying problem of the Ruble - no one wants it.

As to gold, even though the physical amount of reserve gold has declined significantly since last year, the total value has not dropped as much due to the price of gold increasing.

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According to the Russian Central Bank, precious metals account balances decreased by 23.6% in 2024 in monetary terms, while dropping by 46%, or more than 33 tons, in physical terms. [...] But under the all-time high interest rates set by the Central Bank and high gold prices, it is more profitable for both banks and their clients to turn the metal over as fast as possible and not keep it on the banks’ balances, which actually led to lower gold holdings at the end of the year.

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LINK

So, not exactly a Western-style data set. Like asking for a receipt from a coonass welder working out of his back yard...

Taxes are simpler to quantify, if not to collect. But there were a number of changes last year that went into effect Jan. 01 of this year. Here's a rundown on the changes in personal taxes. Corporate taxes are more complicated, certainly more flexible in interpretation. Neither of these are the (currently) 20% Value Added Taxes, which act as retail taxes on anything that moves. And yes, that 20% is not a typo.

TLDR? The forex and gold go to the oligarchs to prevent saltiness, all off record. The rationalization is that they run the defense and misinformation industries. The FSB / GRU are still paid in Ruble mostly, but they don't complain. In public. But there's no getting around it - the Russian economy is six pounds of shite in a two pound bag. And getting worse every month.

What the heck? They are our brothers in Christ

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Their reserves aren't infinite. I have read that they are increasing taxes to fund the war.

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That's going to put a crimp in the whole rural indoor plumbing thing.

NAFO trolls being paid by the CIA

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Just a hideously bad take.

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Long term, because of the oil collapse in 2014, a friend was laid off in 2015 after his last research project. He designed the reactor for and made the first carbon nanotube electric wire, 11gauge, 15 meters worth. Further research has not returned as it was funded by Big Oil and Big Oil Field Services with the idea of using as power cable for subsea production modules generated above by an FPSO. PhD and Post Doc in Single Wall Carbon Nanotubes. Some of his Rice Tour Research Group Post Doc research was used in subsea modules for deepwater oil/gas before NASA and Military looked at it, alloying with various polymers. He hated being VP Marketing while being Chief Science Officer of his company just wanted to do research and application instead.

Mate take your kids to see Snow White again and leave the big boy chat to the rest of us

Crashing oil prices are a negative economic indicator overall.