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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 2/26/25 at 1:52 pm to DakIsNoLB
Posted on 2/26/25 at 1:52 pm to DakIsNoLB
quote:
I don't buy any of this. This is not sound strategy or decision making. You don't risk getting into the entanglement we've seen play out, assuming they foresaw this as an outcome as you suggest, if you believe you only have a 10-15% of seeing a short war happening. That's bad math. You go all in to give yourself the best chance of success.
The Russians have a concept called Avos, which in this context means, putting your faith in god and doing something risky, while ignoring any potential for downsides
I think this explains their (inexplicable) willingness to take risks, and it’s the logic behind everything from the invasion of Prussia in WW1 to the Pristina Dash in Kosovo.
The Russians are frequently doomers, but at the same time they have this blind optimism.
There’s an old joke, a group of cavalary officers are drunk and celebrating and one says, let’s pour champagne on the horses, his friend responds but there’s no money!, the first man takes a moment, and says, well let’s pour beer on the cat.
0
Posted on 2/26/25 at 3:00 pm to doubleb
quote:
Now just over three years later what have they gained? 15% more of East Ukraine, The US promising not to let Ukraine into NATO and what else?
They have had half a million men killed or wounded, they lost thousands of their vest soldiers, they have seen numerous ships sunk, refineries damaged and they have run through a thousand tanks and who knows how many artillery pieces, shells and drones.
NATO gained two members, Europe seems to be growing a pair and you’ve had to go to Iran and N Korea for help. Your military was exposed and they ran you out of Syria.
Good point, what exactly has Russia gained that was worth the price they have paid?
The real question that remains to be answered is whether Russia will keep what it's already captured and no more, or will they get the balance of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts that they don't currently control?
Posted on 2/26/25 at 3:06 pm to Chromdome35
They’ve cleaned out their prisons, showcased their mighty defense industry, streamlined their Black Sea fleet, modernized their oil refining capabilities, and displayed modern military tactics sure to send chills down their enemies spines.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 3:19 pm to Camp Randall
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. I expect the Russians will leave the road to Sudzha open
Posted on 2/26/25 at 3:43 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Good point, what exactly has Russia gained that was worth the price they have paid?
From their perspective, they stopped an existential threat to Russia from emerging in Ukraine, and simultaneously ended the Neocon project to dismember Russia.
Also, one of the lingering problems for Russia, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, was that large populations of ethnic Russians were now living in foreign countries. Ukraine had the largest population of Russians outside of Russia, the war solves that problem.
(Peter Nimitz floated the idea of settling this issue once and for all, and suggested population transfers in the Baltics for example as part of the final peace deal)
The war has also had positive effects for their economy, their military is now the strongest its been in decades, and the war vaulted Russia back into the position a world power, and a peer to the US.
quote:
The real question that remains to be answered is whether Russia will keep what it's already captured and no more, or will they get the balance of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts that they don't currently control?
If the war ended today, they would get the remainder of the provinces they annexed but do not control, including Kherson city.
I still think the Russians will win this on the battlefield, and that the Russians will annex additional regions.
This post was edited on 2/26/25 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 2/26/25 at 3:56 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
From their perspective, they stopped an existential threat to Russia from emerging in Ukraine
And got neighbors Finland and Norway nato in exchange
putin playing 8d chess out here.Posted on 2/26/25 at 3:58 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
That's because you're looking at it from the Russian perspective as "if this haymaker doesn't work, we have to be a years long war of attrition" instead of "we are going into a years long war of attrition, we might as well try this to see if we can end it sooner".
From my perspective, I'm not looking at it from their perspective. They are doing what I wouldn't do.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but I've taken your responses thus far as an endorsement of the Russian approach.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:08 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The war has also had positive effects for their economy, their military is now the strongest its been in decades, and the war vaulted Russia back into the position a world power, and a peer to the US.
I don't think you understand what any of what you wrote here means...
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:08 pm to Lima Whiskey
Zelensky has dismissed Andriy Gnatov, commander of the joint forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Zelensky dismissed Gnatov from the post of commander of the Khortytsia Special Operations Command a month ago and appointed him deputy chief of the General Staff to improve coordination between the headquarters and the front"
Zelensky dismissed Gnatov from the post of commander of the Khortytsia Special Operations Command a month ago and appointed him deputy chief of the General Staff to improve coordination between the headquarters and the front"
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 2/26/25 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:09 pm to klrstix
You may not like it, but it's still true.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:10 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
From their perspective, they stopped an existential threat to Russia from emerging in Ukraine, and simultaneously ended the Neocon project to dismember Russia.
Good point, I agree with this.
quote:
their military is now the strongest its been in decades
I disagree with you on this point. Russia's military has been exposed as a paper tiger with serious infrastructural issues. The war exposed their weaknesses, particularly in logistics and command and control. The war also exposed the impact corruption has had on the Russian military, which at the start of the war was crippling to their invasion.
Russia has undoubtedly learned some lessons and will be stronger in the long term, provided it doesn't allow corruption to reappear after the war ends.
Another point contrary to emerging from this war stronger is that Russia has burned through a vast amount of its stored equipment. The stockpiles are very low, especially in armor and artillery. Those stores were critical to Russia's ability to wage a future war (offensive or defensive) against a peer. It will take a very long time to replace and build up those stores to anything close to what they were prior to the war.
This is probably a point that we will have to agree to disagree. :)
quote:
I still think the Russians will win this on the battlefield and that the Russians will annex additional regions.
If Russia is going to win on the battlefield and annex additional regions they don't currently have any presence in, they better hurry up; the clock appears to be running out. Trump got what he wanted from Ukraine; he will now be looking at Russia to make a deal to end this. If they don't, Trump will likely react in a way that isn't to Russia's benefit.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:11 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The war has also had positive effects for their economy, their military is now the strongest its been in decades, and the war vaulted Russia back into the position a world power, and a peer to the US.
I can't take this seriously. You could argue a war economy has some positives, but a military that has lost hundreds of thousands of veteran and trained soldiers along with loads of modern equipment is going to considered at its strongest in decades unless it was way worse off in those decades before. As for position of world power, I wouldn't consider them much better off than before which was not a peer to the US. Ukraine paled in comparison to Russia in terms of manpower and economy. Western support is what allowed Ukraine to last (it's been enough to not lose; will not be enough to win), but a peer to the US should have smashed them before Western support ever factored in.
ETA: It's possible the existential threat reason is the Russian perspective, but it sounds more like a reason they can use to show the world to hide that they really just want Ukraine under heel.
This post was edited on 2/26/25 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:16 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Russia has undoubtedly learned some lessons and will be stronger in the long term, provided it doesn't allow corruption to reappear after the war ends.
The lessons are there to be learned but nothing on the battlefield leads me to believe they have been learned..
As far as the corruption part of the equation is concerned I think as long as Putin or one of his circle is in power the corruption will be in play.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:21 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
From their perspective, they stopped an existential threat to Russia from emerging in Ukraine, and simultaneously ended the Neocon project to dismember Russia.
Can't take this seriously either. Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia. Russia wants what used to be theirs.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:26 pm to DakIsNoLB
quote:
Ukraine paled in comparison to Russia in terms of manpower and economy. Western support is what allowed Ukraine to last (it's been enough to not lose; will not be enough to win), but a peer to the US should have smashed them before Western support ever factored in.
I think this directly points to the systemic problems in the Russian military that existed prior to the invasion. Putin listened to his generals and thought his military was more competent than it was in reality.
This created the space for the West to bring in support for Ukraine and allowed them to fight Russia to a stalemate.
The fact that Russia never achieved air superiority over Ukraine was a crippling blow to Russia.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:34 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Trump got what he wanted from Ukraine; he will now be looking at Russia to make a deal to end this. If they don't, Trump will likely react in a way that isn't to Russia's benefit.
I disagree
I can't think of anything we could do to hurt Russia, that we haven't done already
Posted on 2/26/25 at 4:34 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
The fact that Russia never achieved air superiority over Ukraine was a crippling blow to Russia.
We all expected air dominance in the first week.
What happened is that their air power was basically crap and combined operations was not something they even knew how to start to accomplish. Plus their logistics sucked donkey balls to the point that now they are using donkeys for logistics
This post was edited on 2/26/25 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 2/26/25 at 5:02 pm to Lima Whiskey
It is quite wild that russia still can't fly over Ukraine. Testament to their western aa equipment.
Posted on 2/26/25 at 5:10 pm to Pendulum
Posted on 2/26/25 at 5:33 pm to John Barron
Putin STAAAAAAAACKED
Ukraine bros fuuùuuuucked
Ukraine bros fuuùuuuucked
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