re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I think the peace deal will give us a more accurate assessment of how to remainder of the war would have gone had it played out. If its worse for Ukraine than most expect, their prospects were likely pretty dire.

I still expect it to be within the general framework of

-Russia keeps the contested territories
-Ukraine doesn't join NATO
-Ukraine can join the EU

And then some maybes like

-Zelensky pushed out to pasture

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That is probably all happening. There will be some changes in territory possession to simplify borders (i.e. the lines will be moved so that the DNPP is not on the frontline of DMZ) but Russia will keep most of what it has right now. The USA has already said that Ukraine joining NATO is not feasible. Ukraine can and will join the EU in the near future. The europeans are already talking about letting Ukraine not just join the EU but also the eurozone and use the euro as its currency. Personally I think that is great for Ukraine but dumb as hell for Europe

Zelensky will not be reelected and it will not Russia or the USA's say. It will be the Ukrainians choice. From my talks with my sauce(s) in Ukraine the populace is pissed off at how Zelensky has run the war. They are also pissed off because he let the west decide that Ukraine needed to focus its efforts at retaking Crimea instead of cutting off the Donbas from Russia back in 2023. Russia had fortified the south to protect Crimea but it left the northern flank unprotected. The Kursk invasion showed just how weak the Russian defense of Russia was and in 2023 Ukraine had the troops to launch a massive invasion. In 2023, Ukraine could have invaded the Kursk oblast and then cut south and east through the Bryansk oblast to cutoff the Donbas from Russia. It would have been devastating to Putin. The Ukrainian people believe Zelensky forced the military to focus on the south because liberating Crimea in 2023 or early 2024 would have been good for Biden. They also believe that he was too willing to believe the assurances that Biden and the EU promised him and that he should have brought attention to the fact that promised made by the west were not being delivered upon a lot sooner than he did. So Zelensky will be out of power within 6 months of a peace deal. Whether he chooses to run for reelection and lose to one of the Ukrainian generals who have become heroes in Ukraine or chooses not to run is all that remains to be seen. My money is on him choosing not to run and Valery Zaluzhny becoming the next president of Ukraine.

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-Ukraine demilitarization but more concrete/binding guarantees of their security instead of toothless wording like "We agree to respect your sovereignty"

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1. Define demilitarization please. Do you mean Ukraine decreasing its military size or doing away with it almost completely?

2. If Ukraine is demilitarized they might as well go ahead and join Russia now. If Ukraine is demilitarized like Putin wants then it will be less than 2 years before Putin invades again.

3. Trump likes foreign military sales too much and Ukraine is going to find a way to fund a military. With the USA saying that Ukraine to NATO is unfeasible, Ukraine is going to have to become like Israel and be armed to the teeth and always ready to fight. I do not know how they will find the money to do it but they will. Maybe they stop the slavic tradition of stealing from the state. Also Trump wants Ukraine's rare earth minerals. Ukraine also has the pipeline infrastructure and the storage capacity to transform the natural gas situation in Europe. If Ukraine utilized the storage capacity for natural gas that the USSR left it could triple the amount of gas that could be stored in Europe. That would allow the EU to buy more LNG from the USA during the summer when it is cheaper and it would make the USA Europe's leading gas supplier which would be good for the USA. So I doubt Trump lets demilitarization be in the final agreement. Ukraine will certainly decrease its military size if a peace deal is struck. Russia will decrease its military size too by the way. Russia will claim they demilitarized Ukraine and the Russian populace and retards like John Barron and SirWinston will believe it but Ukraine will not be demilitarized in reality.

4. Oh yeah, any security agreement will have to include the deployment of western troops to Ukraine. The USA might not want and I hope American troops are not deployed but Poland and France (atleast while Macron is still in charge that will likely change after the next election though) are ready to deploy "peacekeepers" to Ukraine.

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-Ukraine demilitarization but more concrete/binding guarantees of their security instead of toothless wording like "We agree to respect your sovereignty"

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That was done before, but Putin has dreams of being the new Peter the Great. He can not be trusted.

Healey on Ramstein meeting results: Ukraine will receive billions in aid

Following the 26th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, all participants reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine and announced billions of U.S. dollars in military assistance for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

UK Defense Secretary John Healey said this at a press conference following the Ramstein-format meeting, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

"Ukraine walks away from this meeting backed by members of this Group, backed by billions of dollars worth of arms and ammunition committed today," he said.

Healey stressed that this assistance will keep the Ukrainian Armed Forces equipped in order to help increase pressure on Russia, to help "force Putin to the negotiating table, to help bring closer a durable peace."

He also stressed that 2025 will be a critical year for the war, as Russian forces continue their bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

"Russia is still ruthless. Russia is still dangerous. And at this critical moment, we will step up further our support to Ukraine," Healey said.

He also noted that newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reaffirmed "the U.S.'s continued commitment to this Group, to Ukraine's pursuit of a lasting peace, and the importance of security guarantees." According to Healey, the Brussels meeting also saw the U.S. urging European nations to step up their efforts.

In response, Healey emphasized that European countries have already increased their contributions and will continue to do so.

"NATO allies pledged EUR 40 billion in military aid for Ukraine in 2024 and then went on to deliver EUR 50 billion. The majority -- nearly 60% -- of that aid to Ukraine last year came from European nations," he added.

A meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group -- also known as the Ramstein format -- was held in Brussels on February 12. This was the first meeting chaired by the UK defense minister.

Ukrinform

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1. Define demilitarization please. Do you mean Ukraine decreasing its military size or doing away with it almost completely?

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The leaked peace plan had reductions in size, so I imagine that will be the framework still. Ukraine should not agree to completely get rid of its army unless it is no longer a country anymore.

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2. If Ukraine is demilitarized they might as well go ahead and join Russia now. If Ukraine is demilitarized like Putin wants then it will be less than 2 years before Putin invades again.

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Putin will be out of power before it would be feasible for Russia to invade again. I imagine there will be peacekeeping forces from European nations there for a quite a while if not indefinitely. Don't think Russia will have the appetite for another invasion that soon.

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So I doubt Trump lets demilitarization be in the final agreement. Ukraine will certainly decrease its military size if a peace deal is struck.

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4. Oh yeah, any security agreement will have to include the deployment of western troops to Ukraine. The USA might not want and I hope American troops are not deployed but Poland and France (atleast while Macron is still in charge that will likely change after the next election though) are ready to deploy "peacekeepers" to Ukraine.

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Yes I assume there will be European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine for quite a while.

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The war began in 2014 when Putin invaded Crimea.

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Oh come on, thats such bullshite.

We all know 2022 was the beginning of what you could actually call a "war".

Before 2022, they did have the second largest standing army in Europe.

The "ACHTUALLY it began in 2014" argument is ridiculously stupid. They would not be fighting in direct combat right now had Russia not invaded in 2022.

Putin has his eyes of the Baltics which have substantial Russian populations left over from Stalin's Russification plans. The Baltics are in NATO and want nothing to do with Putin or Russia.

Ukraine demilitarization would be suicide.

Ukraine bros on suicide watch.

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Healey stressed that this assistance will keep the Ukrainian Armed Forces equipped in order to help increase pressure on Russia, to help "force Putin to the negotiating table, to help bring closer a durable peace."

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Peace through strength does work.