re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
05 February 2025

January 2025 was likely the second most costly month of the war for Russia with a total of 48,240 casualties (killed and wounded) reported by the Ukraine General Staff. 48,670 Russian casualties were recorded in December 2024, the most costly month of the war for Russia so far.

Russia has likely sustained over 50,000 casualties in 2025 thus far, and over 837,000 casualties since invading Ukraine in February 2022.

January 2025 also saw the second highest average daily Russian casualties in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with an average daily loss rate of 1,556, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. This represents no significant change from December 2024's total of 1,570, the highest average daily Russian casualty rate of the conflict thus far.

Russia's casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day in February 2025, reflecting the high tempo of Russian operations and offensives.

Ukraine extends martial law until May 9

by Kateryna Hodunova February 5, 2025 5:05 PM

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed into law the extension of martial law and general mobilization from Feb. 8 to May 9.

Zelensky first declared martial law and general mobilization on Feb. 24, 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasionof Ukraine. The measure has been repeatedly extended since then.

The president submitted a proposal to the parliament on Jan. 14 to extend martial law and general mobilization for another 90 days. Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, voted to approve the extension one day later.

The extension of general mobilization and martial law until May 9 coincides with the celebration of Victory Day in Russia. The Kremlin heavily leverages the annual Victory Day celebrations to project military strength and propagate its narrative of Soviet heroism in World War II.

Under martial law, Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60, with some exceptions, are not allowed to leave the country as they may be called up for military service.

Due to martial law, Ukraine is also unable to hold parliamentary and presidential elections in accordance with the existing legislation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to use the delay to portray Zelensky as "illegitimate," saying that the authority should pass to Parliament speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk, a claim rejected by Kyiv as a distortion of the constitution.

The Kyiv Independent

Russia Is Running Out of Tanks to Feed Into Ukrainian Meat Grinder


Iconic Russian massive, WW2-style tank assaults are history. Analysts say Russia is losing tanks far faster than it can build more and that replacement stocks are bare.

by Stefan Korshak | February 5, 2025, 3:58 pm

The Russian army isn’t making big armored attacks any more and evidence is strong it’s because the Kremlin is losing tanks far faster than it can replace them.

The last substantial Russian tank attack with close to 40 armored vehicles took place in early April 2024 in the eastern Avdiivka sector. Elements of Ukraine’s 30th and 47th Mechanized Brigades waited for a tank-tipped column to drive into a minefield and then cut it to pieces with artillery and First Person View (FPV) drones.

In the eastern Pokrovsk sector – the focus of Russian assaults for months as the Kremlin has focused on conquering more territory in Ukraine’s Donetsk region – Russian tanks are almost invisible, with Russian infantry attacking on foot or riding light vehicles and even motorcycles. Monthly battle results data published by Ukraine’s 414th Unmanned Aircraft Brigade said that the unit’s FPV and bomber drones operating in that sector in January had damaged or destroyed 79 tanks, while other air strikes, in the same battles, put out of action 151 light armored vehicles and 519 civilian cars, trucks, golf carts, 4WD buggies or motorcycles used by Russian troops.



This chart compiled by the OSINT researcher Cyrus and amended with a blue arrow by a Ukrainian milblogger shows Russian tank losses deflating relentlessly since mid-2024. He wrote: “MBT (main battle tanks) numbers downwards, not because they (the Russian army) are battling better. They decrease because Ru running out of tanks.”

more details...
Kyiv Post

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Russia Is Running Out of Tanks to Feed Into Ukrainian Meat Grinder

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Among the many videos around the web, I note that the Russians are using a lot of civilian modes of transportation these days. Still some tanks getting blown up by drones, but not so many.

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Trump is backing Ukraine if you haven't heard the news yet.

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I don't think what Trump does within 2 weeks of taking office is really indicative of any long term policy.

The only consistent thing he has said involving Ukraine is that he wants to negotiate an end to the war. In order to do that, you can't cut Ukraine off day 1 and then expect them to get good terms.

What i've consistently said about it is this: Trump will say a bunch of shite about harming Russia and helping Ukraine. That either will or won't be enough to get Putin to the table. If he doesn't come to the table, Trump maybe follows through with it. If Putin does come to the table, Trump will demand both sides give up more than they would probably like to. If Zelensky is the holdup from there, Trump will publicly crucify him and likely gut military aid to Ukraine.

Personally I want aid to stop immediately, yes. I don't think Ukraine is worth our tax dollars, I don't think the result of this will be much different for US citizens if Ukraine were to suffer a complete loss vs us pouring Billions more into it and having them only partially lose, and most importantly I don't think its worth all of the lives being spent. Not saying this to debate the point, its been debated in here many times and its not worth rehashing.

I said that to set up some context for this..... I am ok with whatever actions are taken if they seem like a sane means to some end goal. What the Biden admin was doing was not that... they would have the conflict prolong indefinitely so they could drain Russia while giving out billions in contracts to defense contractors in order to replenish the weapons stocks being drained by this war. I would be ok with Trump increasing the aid level if there are clear goals stated and clear benefits to the US citizenry.

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I don't think what Trump does within 2 weeks of taking office is really indicative of any long term policy.

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Agreed, but all those that believed Trump would cut aid day one have been proven wrong.

Like you said, Trump isn’t going to play his cards day one.

Trump didn’t understand how little leverage we have.

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your information about Bellingcat is a lie

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sure buddy

The surveillance drones make it impossible to disguise assaults, unless you attack in small groups. They’ve also discovered, the way the Germans did, that speed saves lives.