re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Remember, the attacker generally needs more men, guns and bullets than the defenders. Also in this case the attackers have to resupply in greater numbers and they have to protect their supply lines and their conquered territories.

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The Russians have shorter supply lines, and an easier time keeping their forces supplied. It's one of their key advantages fighting where they are.

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The Russians have shorter supply lines, and an easier time keeping their forces supplied. It's one of their key advantages fighting where they are.

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Amazing, they have all these advantages and yet can't advance against a country they've supposedly "demilitarized" multiple times.

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And I disagree that Russian units don't put out tons of footage.

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In my experience I see a lot more Ukraine footage, but could be the algorithm. I'm not saying the Russian stuff isn't there in abundance, just doesn't seem to be quite as much as there is for Ukraine.

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1) I think that Putin has continued to believe the hogwash that his generals tell him, and he thinks that his recent shakeup of Shoigu, Gerasimov, etc. will fix things.

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Maybe. But the generals wouldn't be told they were about to run out of money even if it were true.

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3) Russia does think that Trump will win and bail them out. I think that their confidence is misplaced, but you can listen to excerpts from the Skabeyeva and Solovyov shows and see that it's ther

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I'm sure they think he will help them, but outright win them the war? IDK. Europe (rightfully) cares a lot about this. I think they will try to collectively replace the US's contribution in aggregate should we rug-pull Ukraine. Will they be able to? Who knows. I'm sure we would sell Europe weapons that they would then give to Ukraine even in a situation where we turn off the aid faucet.

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So when Putin made those comments do you believe he was exaggerating Russian losses in order to make Ukraine’s losses seem greater?

That’s the question.

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I don't know either way. You can look at it that way. You can look at it and think hes telling the truth (highly doubtful, but it isn't a totally impossibility). You can also look at it as him spitballing on numbers either way, so throwing some bullshite number for Ukraine out there and then throwing in the "its FIVE times more than we are losing" is just more bullshitting.

I lean toward the last one because I don't think you're going to that carefully craft some narrative regarding false numbers anyway, but since I think the numbers are mostly bullshite I'm not particularly passionate about any one theory.

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but since I think the numbers are mostly bullshite I'm not particularly passionate about any one theory.

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I agree.

I think the big thing is that despite all this talk of Russia grinding down Ukraine by employing more and more material into the war; they are accomplishing very little despite their attempts for break throughs.

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There is no doubt Ukraine has had issues in personnel, weapons and ammo.

But it also appears that Russia has also because despite optimistic predictions some have provided here, Russia has accomplished very little.

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The greatest shock of this war is simply how inept Russia’s combat operations have been. On paper, they should’ve rolled Ukraine and Zelenskyy is hiding out in Poland somewhere. I’m not a military expert, but I have to believe if they had the ability to roll Ukraine they would’ve committed the additional personnel and equipment needed, and taken care of business by now.

One question I always have but cannot find an answer for is how many of the guys who were fighting on Day 1 are still alive and fighting. I would think that number is very small. Every day you’re out there dramatically increases the chance of a drone or artillery strike taking you out:

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The greatest shock of this war is simply how inept Russia’s combat operations have been. On paper, they should’ve rolled Ukraine and Zelenskyy is hiding out in Poland somewhere. I’m not a military expert, but I have to believe if they had the ability to roll Ukraine they would’ve committed the additional personnel and equipment needed, and taken care of business by now.

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In fairness to Russia the Ukr army in 2022 was one of the largest and certainly the most battle tested in Europe from fighting the separatists in the east since 2014. They'd also been given a lot of NATO training and even equipment during that time and reorganized a lot of their leadership. They were very good. I think Russia thought they were the same army they'd seen in 2014-2015.

Russia seems to struggle with logistics. Remember during the invasion all those abandoned tanks? They're awful at maintenance and logistics. There were Russian soldiers looting stores because they'd run out of food less than a week into the invasion.

Fwiw the experts I've seen actually said there was nothing really wrong with Russia's plan for invasion, it just didn't work. The Ukrainians put up a good defense in depth, they contested the airfields and didn't allow the Russians to take them, they stayed back and ambushed all the supply convoys, etc. A lot of what's happened in Ukraine hasn't been about Russia doing anything wrong it's just that Ukraine is doing well with what they have.

The casualties on both sides are massive. To give one hint there was a Russian milblogger (a very popular one who goes on tv there) who said that between February and September of 2022 the VDV (Russia's airborne) lost 60% of its forces killed, wounded or captured. Both sides are taking losses the US hasn't experienced since ww2 or the very beginning of Korea, its horrific.

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For a long time in this thread, the consensus was that a long war favored Russia. I now think that the evidence is clear that the reverse is true. If the G7 is able to agree on using Russian assets to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion advance on the interest from those investments, then I will have no doubts about an eventual Ukrainian victory in the conflict.

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From the start of this, Zeihan has repeatedly said "Russia is fighting for space, we are fighting for time." The "time" being important because Russia will run out of young men (only 8 million men in their 20s at the start of this, and a mass exodus by anybody who could leave from Moscow and St. Petersberg as it kicked off) and equipment and the economy will collapse... and Russia will be neutralized. He also points out this is not just Putin, though he's the most aggressive leader they've had in a while... even Yeltsin was launching these wars in his term, because Russia was invaded so much in history... and ironically, NATO and the EU have stopped invasions between European countries even being practical. If they'd joined that they'd be in better shape in every way, but their corruption would've been exposed and would need to be cleaned up, and they won't go for that...

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China able to conquer Siberia

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I'm not sure China will necessarily be in the position to bother with that in a couple of years...

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The short is the Putin didn't have a Plan B. He started this thing. And he has no idea how to end it.

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Putin was told his military was top notch, well-trained and equipped and the equal of NATO forces, while Ukraine was weak and would be obliterated if they dared resist... and also, that the millions of dollars they'd pumped into Psy Ops to convince the Ukrainian people that they are Russians and should welcome him as a Liberator had been extremely effective.

The classic "Dictator's Dilemma"... when you throw anybody with bad news out of a window nobody will tell you the truth if it is bad news. This also allows corruption to go haywire...