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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 12/20/23 at 6:42 pm to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40253 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 6:42 pm to
quote:

If Russia was losing armor at even a quarter of the rates that are claimed by the Ukrainian military the war would've been over a long time ago.


Yes

It’s PR to bolster morale and increase Western support for the war


Please explain the 2571 tanks which have been documented to have been severely damaged, destroyed, abandoned, or captured.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40253 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 6:44 pm to
quote:

Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorstep. If NATO and Ukraine stop flirting, this thing could be resolved.



Why right Putin have to say what another sovereign nation does? He was never elected President of Ukraine.
Posted by Scuttle But
Member since Nov 2023
1301 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

The UK estimates that Russia has lost over > 2400 tanks from 2/23/22 - November 20223. Oryx has documented photo evidence of 2571 tanks severely damaged, destroyed, or captured. Ukraine claims Russia has lost around 5,000 tanks. There is photo evidence to support 1/2 of Ukraine's claims and western estimates are consistent with that.
Then Ukraine must be losing all of its tanks too. Because any other army is the world thar destroys nearly 100 enemy armored vehicles in one day is going to exploit that with a counterattack through the lines. The Ukrainians aren't doing that so I must assume that they're losses are just as dire as the Russians'.
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 6:47 pm
Posted by Scuttle But
Member since Nov 2023
1301 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 6:46 pm to
quote:

Why right Putin have to say what another sovereign nation does? He was never elected President of Ukraine.


Well the that's the entire reason every country wages war right? To force their will on other nations.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19561 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 6:50 pm to
Oryx identifies Ukrainian tanks as Russian ones and engages in double counting. I assumed he was being paid to run his account, but I don’t know that.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40253 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:05 pm to
quote:

The UK estimates that Russia has lost over > 2400 tanks from 2/23/22 - November 20223. Oryx has documented photo evidence of 2571 tanks severely damaged, destroyed, or captured. Ukraine claims Russia has lost around 5,000 tanks. There is photo evidence to support 1/2 of Ukraine's claims and western estimates are consistent with that.
Then Ukraine must be losing all of its tanks too.



No. Only 701 Ukrainian tanks have been documented to be severley damaged, destoyed, abandoned, or captured.

quote:

Because any other army is the world thar destroys nearly 100 enemy armored vehicles in one day is going to exploit that with a counterattack through the lines.


One of the reasons why Russia's tank losses are so high over the weekend is because Russia has started using tanks to clear the minefields. There were a lot of videos on twitter over the weekend shwoing T62 driving straight into minefields getting blown up and pushed aside by another T62 which would go on to strike another mine. Either Ukraine has mastered video manipulation to the point that they can make it look like the Russian are kamakazee themselves to clear holes in the Ukrainian minefields (in which case to them because that is some seriously impressive film work), or the Russians have actually resorted to using T62 as kamakazees to clear holes in the minefield. Also there are videos of Russian tanks charging Ukrainian positions under heave artillery fire and not changing direction and getting knocked out one by one before even getting close. So it appears that Russia has resorted to using human wave attacks but with tanks to try and overrun Ukraine's prepared positions.

quote:

The Ukrainians aren't doing that so I must assume that they're losses are just as dire as the Russians'.


The past 7 to 10 days has seen an surge in intensity of the Russian offensive in Avdiivka and maybe the most intense fighting of the war so far. Ukraine is too busy defending its prepared positions to exploit the Russian loses for a counterattack. Also how would Ukraine exploit it? The Russian positions are just as dug in because Avdiivkka has been a stationary frontline sent July 2014. Both sides have built such extensive fortifications over the past 9 years that it is probably the most heavily fortified areas in the world today and one of the most heavily fortified areas in the history of warfare. Imagine WW1 style trench warfare but with trenches dug by heavy machinery instead of by hand. Also it is possible that Ukraine has exploited the losses since the losses were reported to have occurred on Sunday and it did not hit the internet until earlier today which is Wednesday. I doubt that Ukraine has exploited it because they are busy defending but it is possible due to the time delay in news coming out.
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 7:43 pm
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40253 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:26 pm to
quote:

Oryx identifies Ukrainian tanks as Russian ones and engages in double counting. I assumed he was being paid to run his account, but I don’t know that.



Please provide evidence to back up your claim.

ETA: Here are a few pictures taken randomly on his websites.








Every picture of Russian losses either has a giant white Z painted on the side, a cope cage, or both. Ukraine does not paint Z's on its equipment and it does not use cope cages. How do you explain the Z's and/or the cope cages on the equipment if Oryx is counting Ukrainian equipment as Russian?
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 7:37 pm
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3805 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:28 pm to
quote:

Oh no, Ukraine Bros! The CIA's favoured method of news dissemination has removed the Ukraine war perma-banner from its masthead.



Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
1372 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:31 pm to
quote:

Lima Whiskey


quote:

provide evidence


Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
20044 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:32 pm to
quote:

One of the reasons why Russia's tank losses are so high over the weekend is because Russia has started using tanks to clear the minefields. There were a lot of videos on twitter over the weekend shwoing T62 driving straight into minefields getting blown up and pushed aside by another T62 which would go on to strike another mine. Either Ukraine has mastered video manipulation to the point that they can make it look like the Russian are kamakazee themselves to clear holes in the Ukrainian minefields or they have resorted to using T62 as kamakazees to clear holes in the minefield. Also there are videos of Russian tanks charging Ukrainian positions under heave artillery fire and not changing direction and getting knocked out one by one before even getting close. So it appears that Russia has resorted to using human wave attacks but with tanks to try and overrun Ukraine's prepared positions.


Stalin had Soviet troops charge across mine fields without regard to the cost in men's lives.

I had the image of a Soviet soldier walking across a mine field with his hands over his ears.
This post was edited on 12/20/23 at 7:46 pm
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
1372 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:37 pm to
Why didn’t he invade Finland when they announced intent to join NATO?
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40253 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:56 pm to
quote:

Why didn’t he invade Finland when they announced intent to join NATO?



Because he was too busy invading Ukraine so he could protect Ukraine's territorial integrity from Poland!
Posted by BoardReader
Arkansas
Member since Dec 2007
6937 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorstep. If NATO and Ukraine stop flirting, this thing could be resolved.


This stupid shite again?

He already had direct borders with 4 NATO members; he already doubled the length of his NATO frontiers, by doing this, even without Ukrainian joining.

He doesn't like NATO on his doorstep? He can play a game of hide and go frick himself. Not his business.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40253 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:08 pm to
quote:

Yeah using French electronics. They cannot get those now thanks to the sanctions.


PNM-T



The PNM-Tas only been seen on Russia's new T90s. The majority of the tanks leaving Russian factories are not new T90s, but are refurbished T72s and T62s (despite what RT and the FSB tell you). Those T72s and T62s are equipped with cold war ear optics like the 1PN96.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9869 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:16 pm to
quote:

It’s propaganda to bolster morale and increase Western support for the war


A. It's documented with geotags of actual Russia losses.
B. Propaganda by all sides since the beginning of time is normal. We did it like a mofo in WWII. My dad was a witness to one, a tanker that had broken in two which they towed back to Seattle, but dropped the tow cable so the press could see it enter port under its own power. It had been towed from the Bering Straits where Navy tugs were performing salvage ops on returning recon aircraft which ran out of fuel just shy of landing only to pick up the film canisters and drop back into the sea.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3805 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:27 pm to
quote:

Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorstep. If NATO and Ukraine stop flirting, this thing could be resolved.


So he is totally gonna invade Finland any day now right?
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3805 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 8:32 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill made a series of anti-migrant and xenophobic remarks that directly contradict Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing efforts to reestablish the inclusive Russian World (Russkiy Mir) ideology.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly stated that the Kremlin is uninterested in negotiations with Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin is moving away from its information operation meant to feign interest in negotiations.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-controlled Africa Corps announced a recruitment campaign targeting former and current Wagner Group personnel and people with combat experience in the war in Ukraine.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin discussed bilateral economic cooperation with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on December 20.

Moscow State University (MGU) is reportedly ending its master's program in “information and hybrid warfare” aimed at teaching students how to create information operations and conduct hybrid warfare, generating outrage from Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov.

The Kremlin continues to set conditions to create a veneer of legitimacy over the upcoming March 2024 presidential election.

Russian forces made a confirmed advance north of Bakhmut and continued positional meeting engagements along the entire line of contact.

Russian officials issued military summonses to migrants at a naturalization ceremony on December 20 as part of ongoing efforts to target naturalized migrants for crypto-mobilization efforts and to placate the Russian ultranationalist community.

Russian occupation administrators continue to use educational organizations to facilitate the temporary deportation of Ukrainians to Russia.


Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
23990 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 9:05 pm to
quote:

Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorstep. If NATO and Ukraine stop flirting, this thing could be resolved.

What about the other thousand miles or so of NATO countries that border Russia aside from Ukraine? Will Russia bomb them?
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40253 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 10:08 pm to
quote:

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly stated that the Kremlin is uninterested in negotiations with Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin is moving away from its information operation meant to feign interest in negotiations.


But it’s totally Ukraine’s fault there are no peace talks going on right now. Right?
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9869 posts
Posted on 12/20/23 at 10:19 pm to
quote:

Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorstep. If NATO and Ukraine stop flirting, this thing could be resolved.


Ukraine wasn't anywhere close to even applying to join NATO. The population flipped on that just like it did in Finland after Feb 2022.
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