re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Didn’t you say that Robotyne was taken by the Ukrainians 3 or 4 days ago?


Yes. It was. This just means that the big attack is happening in that area.

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It looks like Ukraine is having some success too. Reports are that the Russians are pulling out of Novoprokopivka. Novoprokopivka is the next village on the T0408 highway towards Tokmak.



If the reports are true that Russia is pulling out of Novoprokopivka that means there is going to be a big hole in one of 2 main defensive lines between the UAF and the outskirts of Tokmak. It also looks like once the UAF clears Novoprokopivka that the minefields thin out significantly.

ETA:

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There is unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces entering the town of Novoprokopivka.

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LINK

Damn the crazy Ukies are moving fast if those reports are true. If those reports are true they have advanced 3 km in the last few hours.

ETA2: Per X, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade is leading the assault and that they have recently been equipped with Challenger tanks, and Marder IFVs. Looks like Ukraine means business.

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If the reports are true that Russia is pulling out of Novoprokopivka

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It's confusing, because Novoprokopivka is due south of Robotyne, and yet, other reports say that Ukraine is assaulting in the direction of Verbove, which is to the east-southeast of Robotyne (which is what I assumed in my map earlier, and Big Serge did as well).


EDIT:

An attack to the southeast of Robotyne would necessarily mean trying to breach the Russian 2nd line. If they are simply moving south to Novoprokopivka, though, then the Russian 2nd line is still a good bit away.





The Russian defense is composed of three fortified lines. Everything that I read months ago indicated that the 2nd line was the strongest and best. Breaking it is the biggest challenge for Ukraine.

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you just went from 6 to midnight typing this out didn't you ?

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Nope. Just saying that’s what I would do. I don’t expect the Russians to actually do it though because they aren’t very good at combined arms tactics. Which is what that scenario would be. There’s a lot of talk about combined arms in this thread but I don’t think most in this thread really know what it means. It’s not simply using a bunch of different weapons systems at the same time.

The essence of combined arms is putting the enemy in a dilemma where he has no good options, or as few good options as you can leave him. In the scenario I laid out the Ukrainians can either continue to push forward and face tanks and entrenched enemy with missiles and rockets, stay where they are and get pounded by artillery and air power, or retreat and run into a minefield.

On the flip side if I were the Ukrainians I’d go all in on the attack in the south. Cutting the land bridge to Crimea is needs to be the one and only objective. Quit fricking around near Bakhmut and up north and divert troops to the south, even if it means giving up ground in the north. Pound the enemy lines with artillery and use infantry and sapper attacks to punch a hole through the weakest part of the line you can find and then let your armored formations go through and run amok behind the lines. That’s called maneuver warfare. I guess that’s kind of what they’ve been trying to do lately but it may be too little too late.

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Lots of rumors have been running around today. The latest information is beginning to provide some clarification. This was posted 6-hours ago:

"On the Orekhovsky segment (Robotyne AO), the APU is getting closer to Tokmak. Information is being received that the second line of defense of katsapni has been broken in two sectors of the front. Fighting is underway in the villages of Novoprokopovka and Novopokrovka. The Ukrainian armed forces are getting closer to the villages of Verbovo and Kopani. The orcs are still trying to snap back, but they can't change the situation on this front. The rashists have very large losses, and there is nowhere to replenish fresh meat. It is reported that the katsaps began evacuating the FSB Department and headquarters from Tokmak. That is, they are doing badly and they no longer believe that they will keep #Tokmak."

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Granted these are pro-Ukrainian sources and unconfirmed information but it appears the UAF is attacking in multiple directions. They have made at least 2 openings and the one towards Novoprokopivka looks like it might be a legit breakthrough.

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The Russian defense is composed of three fortified lines. Everything that I read months ago indicated that the 2nd line was the strongest and best. Breaking it is the biggest challenge for Ukraine.

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The line of defense from Novoprokopivka and Verbovo looks to be a weak spot in that 2nd line of defense. Especially since that line was made up of artillery more than mines. The excerpts from the intercepted Russian communications say they are withdrawing because they are low on shells. If that is true then the Russian defense only have enough shells on hand for a few hours fighting and since the supply depo in Tokmak was taken out today then they might not get to restock for a bit. This could all fizzle out but it looks like there might actually be some life in this counteroffensive after all.

LINK

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The airspace over the Vnukovo and Domodedovo Airport in Moscow has been closed.

The arrivals and departures of aircraft are delayed.

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This is something like six out of the last seven days that Moscow's airspace has been closed because of Ukrainian drones.

Eventually, airlines such as Turkish and Emirates are going to get tired of losing money due to all the delays flying to and from Moscow.

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Nope. Just saying that’s what I would do. I don’t expect the Russians to actually do it though because they aren’t very good at combined arms tactics.

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Their helicopters also do not have night vision googles. This battlefield is 8 hours ahead of the CST in the USA. That means that these alleged breakthroughs are coming at night. If the reports of the Russian withdraw and Ukrainian advance are true then by sunrise the Ukrainians could have broken through the 2nd line of Russian defenses thanks to the Russian withdrawal and be sitting nice and safe behind their mobile AADs. Tomorrow could be a bad day on to be a Russian helicopter pilot.

On the flip side, the Russians could catch the Ukrainians out in the open in the morning and then it will be a bad day for the Ukrainians.

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Their helicopters also do not have night vision googles.

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They do, unless it’s a very old variant.

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Serious question.

Are the 3 defensive lines we’re talking about mean mines/tank ditches and dragons teeth/trenches, or are there 3 different lines of the whole set? Because in my mind one defensive line is the whole set.

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Based on this map it looks like there is are 3 main lines of defense with some other smaller lines scattered in. I would assume that each line contains the whole set with one main focus. Ukraine broke through the 1st line which was mainly minefields when it took Robotyne and that other small village earlier this week. If the reports are true that Russia has pulled out of Novopropivika then there is a hole in line #2. That line is mostly artillery, tanks, and troops. Line #3 is closer to Tokmak and that is where the pictures of the lines or dragon teeth have come from.

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Yeah I find it hard to believe that the Russians haven’t figured out night vision yet.

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Until recently, for example, Russia’s most modern tanks relied on an infrared sight by French company Thales called the Catherine FC. The country lost access to those after its first invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Since then, Russia had to begin assembling its own devices, a process made much more difficult by the fact than many sources of necessary components are under sanction. Some older Russian vehicles still rely on active infrared searchlights, which light up the vehicles using them with potentially fatal results.

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April 2023

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While some night-vision technology has been "proliferated throughout specialized Russian units," he told Insider, the common soldier just isn't getting anything close to the coveted scopes and goggles. And with corruption running rampant in the Russian armed forces, some groups that get access to higher-end equipment like night-vision systems likely hoard them, Barros noted.

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June 2023

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Hell, the Afghan and Iraqi insurgents had night vision.

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According to the US and NATO observers and advisors that I have talked to. Not only is the average Iraqi insurgent or Taliban fighter better equipped than the average Russian soldier today, the average Soviet soldier in Afghanistan in the 80s as better equipped than the Russian soldier in Ukraine. When are y'all going to realize just how bad the Russian army really is? Russian soldiers are wearing foot wrappings with writing on them saying that they were made in the USSR. Corruption in Russia is so bad that the Russian army cannot even keep its soldiers in socks because 80-90% of the money allocated for the Russian army is stolen by everyone from Putin down to lowly purchasing officer. Why are you surprised Russia does not have night vision capability?

Im not seeing anything indicating its at all related to activities in ukraine. Where are you seeing that