re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I'm not trying to argue with you -- just trying to understand.

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You obviously did not grow up on a farm. The Zap oblast with the exception of the desert/dunes area just east of Kherson city most of the Zap oblast is farm land which means there is very little vegetation to maintain soil integrity that time year. It is also "black dirt" with a high water table. That means it is great for growing stuff but < 1/2 inch or rain and the dirt turns into mud and fields turn into a quagmires. Also the sun is not as intense in October and November as it is in the summer so it takes longer to dry the ground out. Ask anyone who grew up or worked on a farm and about the yearly race to get prep work for the next year done before the fall/winter rains start because once rains start the ground is wet and turns to mud it takes a week or more to dry out enough to support heavy machinery.

I grew up on a very large farm and while the soil is much different in Louisiana and Mississippi than it is in Ukraine, one thing is true regardless of where you are. If it rains and you keep rolling over the ground with in our case heavy 200 hp tractors and Ukraine would be tracked and heavy wheeled vehicles eating the ground up. Tracks specifically will chew the ground up in a hurry. Ukraine’s soil is dark the top soil is thin from being turned over for farming. Like Wee Wee said, it doesn’t take long for that kind of soil to turn into a complete slog where you can’t operate. It’s been an unusually warm and dry summer though so maybe that extends their window a little before winter. I say they have about 10 weeks from now to make whatever move they intend to make. Once November hits all bets are off. You might be able to operate into early December or you might be stuck where you are before Thanksgiving. It seems Tokmak is the new goal. Before winter. They can make the port cities and supply routes hell from there.

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It is not the snow that causes the mud season problems. It is the fall rains. Last year the fall rains started in mid-October. Ukraine needs to conquer Tokmak by the end of September because Tokmak is a road junction. If Ukraine conquers Tokmak of advancing down the T0401 towards Meltiopol or along the P37 towards Berdyansk. Also if Ukraine conquers Tokmak then it cuts the road and rail links between Melitopol and Mariuopl and Russia.

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This and the subsequent discussion on the rainfalls in September are good points which I should have thought of too, cheers for bringing it up.

Edit: Clarity

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I hadn't thought about it before, but much of the farmland near the front lines was not farmed this year. We've seen satellite photos showing a "green belt" near the front. That extra vegetation will likely keep the ground strong for a week or so longer than in a year where the soil was tilled.

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That growth doesn't have the root system required to keep other than the very top sort of stable. From what I've seen the soil of the Ukrainian farmland is more like that of the Great Plains and Midwest with several feet of topsoil, if not ten plus feet. The steppes of Taras Bulba.

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When is this going to happen?

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The good news is they only need to encircle 1/5 of Bakhmut to qualify as winners according to LSU enjoyer.

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RwA is my go to source

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SirWinston

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(no message)

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Nexta is a literal anti-Russian propaganda outlet. Russia gets its pharmaceuticals the same place we do, China.

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It's literally on the Russian Health Ministry's website right now.

ETA: I would post the link to it on the Russian MOH website but I got a PM back before this war started to not link foreign government pages.

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What does the Russian MOH website say? I am sure nexta is taking whatever it says out of context and sensationalizing it.

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There is a list of 196 medications that the Russian MOH is requesting pharmacies call doctors offices and request an alternative medication due to supply issues. I scanned the recognized the Russian names for some of the meds. The list includes some basic things like MMR, pertusis (whooping cough), and varicella (chickenpox) vaccines; antibioitics amoxicillin, amoxicillin-clavulanate (aka Augmentin), clindamycin, and azithromycin as well as OTC medications like Paracetamol (aka Tylenol). I did not recognize the Russian names of the other meds and I am too lazy to google translate all 196.

…something more along the lines of entirely necessary antibiotics and basic vaccinations?