re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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/1 Potentially significant news for Russian volunteer orgs providing the military with drones and other supplies: the State Duma adopted a law facilitating public procurement for the war in Ukraine. This means that the MOD units can now freely purchase what they need for cash.

2/ "The military units will be able to conclude contracts in any form when purchasing goods/work/services from suppliers - this will speed up urgent small purchases, eliminating paperwork and red tape. Cash settlements will be carried out in cases where there is no technical possibility for non-cash payments."

3/ The language used in the official TASS announcement open the possibility for individual units and formations to establish quick contracts for "goods and services" that may include any number of products that are in demand at the front.

4/ One issue to consider is the possibility of an abuse of this quick purchase system - the use and circulation of cash in the Russian military is sometimes associated with fraud by more senior officers up the command ladder. At the same time, many key products...

5/ ...delivered to the front are donated for free, such as the multitude of efforts designing and building quadcopters and FPV drones. These efforts exist mostly due to citizen and private sector donations - so now, there can be a different scheme that can transfer...

6/ ...such tech products to the forces via an official MOD procedure. But questions remain how cash will circulate between military forces needing something right away and many contractors offering their services. The Duma law opens the possibility of donations by...

7/ ...transferring the goods and services by "non-cash payments", which can potentially be just donations of key items like FPV drones, thermal imagers, DJI quadcopters, ammunition and other stuff, instead of electronic payments or other payment methods.

8/ It will be important to watch the reaction of many volunteer efforts that can be impacted by this law - whether or not they take the MOD up on this offer, or they will find other ways to deliver their tech and services to the front.

9/ There were many complaints back in 2022, when pro-Kremlin Telegram channels could still openly criticize the MOD, that acquisition and provision of key items and products left a lot to be desired, prompting many volunteer efforts to stand up across Russia. This Duma law...

10/...makes certain purchases and acquisitions easier, but letting cash circulate freely in the military may still be a recipe for trouble down the line. Watch this space.

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There is a lot of talk about the Russians advancing in the Svatove-Karmazynivka area. I have not seen any visual evidence yet, but both sides confirms some movement there lately. The "bulge" is illustrative.



I would like to add, I think the rumors about accumulating RU forces and equipment are being exaugurated.

One thing which have not been discussed a lot is that RU forces have Several of their VDV units to Bakhmut to stop the AFU advances. The attrition of those troops will have impacts on RuAFs offensive and defensive potential in the future.

The question is, how much is it costing Ukraine. Taking Bakhmut back would not give any significant operational benefits. Another thing to point out is the city is more or less destroyed.

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Russia has captured the Ukrainian villages of Novoyehorivka, Sergiyivka and Nadiya in Luhansk oblast during recent offensive actions. The advance is between 6 & 8 KM (3-4 miles).

Map to the left is from yesterday while right is from today.

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Ukrainian Sources are reporting that Russia Forces along the Frontline in the Luhansk and Kharkiv Region have managed to launch a “Significant Assault” with Advances noted up to 6-8km from the Zherebets River where Fighting was still ongoing less than 24 hours ago, alongside this the Settlements of Serhiivka, Nadiia, and Novojehorivka are now claimed to be under Russian Control.

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Situation south of Bakhmut. Geolocated footage shows the AFU inside the southern part of Klishchiivka while RU sources report fighting in the northern part. Half of the village under UA control. Andriivka likely abandoned/liberated. The area west of the railway tracks are contested. Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka will be next.

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Ukrainian forces south of Bakhmut liberated Andriivka. The liberation of Klishchiivka is imminent. Ukrainian forces already inside the village. Russian forces abandoning positions.

For the Ukrainian forces at the ridge line overlooking Klishchiivka this most certainly must be like in a shooting gallery.

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Ukraine is attempting a major attack on Klishchiivka. Russian artillery fire is extremely heavy.

Latest update is that the AFU has wedged itself into positions on the outskirts of the village, but Russian reserves were inserted and the Ukrainian advance has been stopped.

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Head of the State Duma Defense Committee Kartapolov objects to amendments to the Russian mobilisation law which would see fathers of several children and fathers of disabled children be exempt from total mobilisation, which he says is "in the air".

Looks like Kartapolov and his owner Kremlin Looney are ready to fight until the last Russian.

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Calls for fighting age Russian men to be banned from travelling abroad:

In a recent interview, State Duma deputy and lieutenant general Viktor Sobolev condemned last year's mobilization and the high volume of Russian men who have fled the country.

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1/ Members of a Russian Storm Z penal unit who had previously refused to fight have reportedly been rounded up at gunpoint, their mobile phones shot to prevent them communicating with relatives, and the men taken away to the front line. A few are said to have managed to hide.

2/ The men – originally a group of 43 – first appeared in a video of 28 June 2023 refusing to follow "terrible orders" after losing around 110 out of 150 men on the front line. They say they had no ammunition, food or water while they were there.

3/ They subsequently posted a video around 9 July saying that they had been disarmed and dumped in abandoned houses in the occupied village of Rozivka, behind the front lines. Their relatives said they were "waiting to be slaughtered."

4/ According to Tatyana, the wife of one of the men, they were forcibly taken away from Rozivka on 15 July. She says they were taken to the frontline village of Pryiutne in the Zaporizhzhya region. Their phones were taken away and shot, before the men were loaded onto a truck.

5/ "Of the 43 people in Rozivka, there are 12 people left," she says. "Some managed to hide, and others simply did not know that [the army] had come for them, because they all lived in different houses.

6/ "There is no communication at all, because their phones were shot on the spot where they were taken from."

7/ The men's current whereabouts and status are unknown; they are said to be serving under a new commander, "a "tough man" with the call sign "Vostok", and he is unlikely to allow them to call their relatives."

8/ Tatyana herself tried to join the army to get back to her husband, but was refused. She fears for their safety, saying that "all their phones have been shot, our boys will be reset [killed] soon."

9/ She says she was "warned that as soon as I started to find out anything about my husband, they would not let me near him. What's the point of going then? We don't know anymore, we are starting to go crazy."

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