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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:45 pm to Decatur
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:45 pm to Decatur
quote:
B. Prigozhin is really REALLY dumb and yet he exposed Putin and Russian internal security weaknesses in spite of how dumb he is.
While he may be dumb, I think he was backed into a corner. The Russian military was taking his troops on July 1st and without troops he wasn't long for this world. So it was either lose his troops or rebel and try to force Putin into some sort of negotiations
1
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:48 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Prig
My biggest Confusion point right now is that Putin said that traitors will be dealt with and yet Prig is off in Belarus as if he is not a traitor despite Putin calling him a traitor
Eta
You can't pubically say you're going to deal with the traitors if you don't actively do something with the face of the action
This post was edited on 6/26/23 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
This is based on Ukraine's claims, but you can clearly see the strategy here: Ukraine is using its newly provided counter-battery radars to wreak destruction on Russian artillery, after which it will be much easier for Ukrainian troops to advance.
[insert graph]
GOP, I'm having a little trouble deciphering the alleged losses. Is this claiming that Ukraine has taken out nearly 600 Russian artillery pieces just in June 2023? That is a little hard to believe.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:49 pm to Chromdome35
Lots of chatter the FSB got to his family.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:51 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Lots of chatter the FSB got to his family.
He’d have to know they would use family as leverage. How do you (Prigozhin) not know that?
This post was edited on 6/26/23 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:51 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
You need a sarcasm indicator.
Yeah I guess, in context though that one should have been gold.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:54 pm to StormyMcMan
Prigozhin surviving this must mean he has some serious clout that we don’t really know about. Like gangster ties.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 4:56 pm to OleVaught14
quote:
Prigozhin is really REALLY dumb
quote:
While he may be dumb
I don't think he's dumb at all. As a matter of fact he's a propaganda genius.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:00 pm to Decatur
quote:
Prigozhin surviving this must mean he has some serious clout that we don’t really know about. Like gangster ties.
They're all literally gangsters. It's a vast organized crime network.
Fun fact: although he's a thug and a criminal, Prigozhin is part of the intelligentsia. His mother is an artist and runs a gallery in London. He's of a higher social class than Putin. This may have something to do with Putin's circumspectness in dealing with him.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:08 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.
That is the number that the earlier report said was being exciled/transferred to Belarus.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:20 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Fun fact:
He’s under indictment in US for his part in Russia’s 2016 election interference efforts. Got to think that gave him a lot of goodwill with Putin. I think he still has the troll farms in his portfolio.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:25 pm to Decatur
Maybe he thought he had contingencies in place and the FSB got wise and circumvented them.
This post was edited on 6/26/23 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:32 pm to El Mattadorr
quote:
don't think he's dumb at all. As a matter of fact he's a propaganda genius.
The propaganda is what got him into this corner. It appears he underestimated his appeal to Putin and the regular Russian troops. Putin chose his generals and the Russian troops chose the military.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:37 pm to Decatur
quote:
My competing hypotheses rn:
A. This has all been an elaborate ruse to explain Wagner forces showing up in Belarus.
or
B. Prigozhin is really REALLY dumb and yet he exposed Putin and Russian internal security weaknesses in spite of how dumb he is.
Belarus only works if it is to take over there.
Not Dumb if he was expecting entire military units to side with him in Moscow and that never materialized.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:44 pm to Decatur
quote:
He’s under indictment in US for his part in Russia’s 2016 election interference efforts. Got to think that gave him a lot of goodwill with Putin. I think he still has the troll farms in his portfolio.
Yeah, his troll farm got shut down for exactly one day. It's reopened, and so have all the Wagner recruitment offices.
Prigozhin and Putin are the couple who fight all the time but need each other so badly that neither can leave the relationship.
EDIT: I'm happy for BKR that he didn't lose his job.
This post was edited on 6/26/23 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:51 pm to Hateradedrink
Further video from today of talks/speech at the Kremlin about the weekends events - according to wartranslated a lot was said with little substance, similar to the earlier address and there should be a further component, note the presence of Shoigu.
As others point out it is interesting that he is without a military uniform, though it is speculation if it means he has lost his position or not at this time.
Edit: Clarity
We still have not seen Gerasimov in the media at all, either during or following those events, though it could be argued he is dealing with the Ukraine frontlines.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673423023787917312 - Video
As others point out it is interesting that he is without a military uniform, though it is speculation if it means he has lost his position or not at this time.
Edit: Clarity
We still have not seen Gerasimov in the media at all, either during or following those events, though it could be argued he is dealing with the Ukraine frontlines.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673423023787917312 - Video
This post was edited on 6/26/23 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:54 pm to Decatur
quote:
He’d have to know they would use family as leverage. How do you (Prigozhin) not know that?
This is what I think too. Hearing his kids ( youngest is an 18 yo daughter) on the phone Taken-style would make even the most treasonous individual re-think some things.
As others have said he had all the leverage in Rostov. And since some of the nukes were right next door he couldn't bargained for a hell of a lot more than exile to Belarus ( and maybe he did. Russian news ain't exactly trustworthy)
I've also probably watched too many movies (binged John Wick and Taken this weekend).
In short: who the frick knows. And we'll never know the truth. However, the good knows for Ukraine is two fold:
1. Wagner is out of the picture. So there is 25k less fighters on the battlefield.
2. Girkin and others are still calling out Putin on Telegram. While the government may try to limit access to Telegram on the Mainland to quell discord, the soldiers at the front definitely know what happened. The longer this goes on, the lower the morale ( which is already low to start with).
Posted on 6/26/23 at 5:59 pm to jefffan
quote:
2. Girkin and others are still calling out Putin on Telegram.
Cuts against the elaborate ruse hypothesis. Would Putin be willing to make himself look this bad over a cheap slight of hand? Seems less likely.
Posted on 6/26/23 at 6:27 pm to jefffan
Warning: NSFW
Brutal video of Ukrainian soldiers getting caught in a minefield and their subsequent extraction via a Bradley.
Several poor bastards take one as they get out to help others. Incredible to see the presence of mind to apply bandages/tourniquets directly after.
They also appear to come under pretty heavy artillery fire at one point although this looks like it could be another area and spliced in.
Highlights the difficulties Ukraine faces in the counter offensive.
https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1673421138473496577 - Video NSFW
Brutal video of Ukrainian soldiers getting caught in a minefield and their subsequent extraction via a Bradley.
Several poor bastards take one as they get out to help others. Incredible to see the presence of mind to apply bandages/tourniquets directly after.
They also appear to come under pretty heavy artillery fire at one point although this looks like it could be another area and spliced in.
Highlights the difficulties Ukraine faces in the counter offensive.
https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1673421138473496577 - Video NSFW
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