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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/24/22 at 8:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 12/24/22 at 8:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
Finland while trade friendly with Russia has been very wary of them for a century. No doubt that Poland has a presence and just as wary of the aggressive bear. Baltic States too.
Perhaps a collaboration is what has happened. The CIA must have gotten much better in recent years to be this effective.
Perhaps a collaboration is what has happened. The CIA must have gotten much better in recent years to be this effective.
0
Posted on 12/24/22 at 8:56 pm to HonorThyWarEagle
ISW Christmas Eve Update
quote:
Russian forces’ rate of advance in the Bakhmut area has likely slowed in recent days, although it is too early to assess whether the Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut has culminated. Russian milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area have managed to slightly slow down the pace of the Russian advance around Bakhmut and its surrounding settlements, with one claiming that Ukrainian forces pushed back elements of the Wagner Group to positions they held days ago
quote:
Russian forces will likely struggle to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and may seek to initiate a tactical or operational pause. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on December 24 that Russian forces currently lack the necessary stockpile of artillery munitions to support large-scale offensive operations and that sustaining defensive operations along the lengthy frontline in Ukraine requires the Russian military to expend a significant number of shells and rockets daily...The Russian military’s personnel and munitions constraints will likely prevent it from maintaining the current high pace of offensive operations in the Bakhmut area in the near-term. Russian forces previously allocated significant resources in a meat-grinder effort to seize Severodonesk and Lysychansk in spring–summer 2022.
quote:
Russian siloviki may be setting information conditions to justify the nationalization of oligarchs' resources to sponsor Russia’s war effort. Wagner financier Yeveniy Prigozhin attended the funeral of a deceased Wagner Group mercenary in St. Petersburg on December 24, where he stated that Russia needs to confiscate luxury possessions and accommodations from elites who ignore or do not support the war effort out of fear of losing their privileged lifestyles.[7] Prigozhin added that these affluent individuals support a vision where ”Western curators” dominate Russia in return for the sponsorship of their lifestyles and compared today’s Russian oligarchy to Ukraine’s or to 1990s Russia.....Russian President Vladimir Putin also indirectly attacked Russian oligarchs on December 22, however, stating that Russians who drain Russia’s money from abroad and do not have a connection with the country “represent a danger” to Russia.[10] Putin claimed that while the vast majority of Russian businessmen are patriots, there are some who do not share the sentiment
quote:
Ukrainian intelligence continues to suggest that the Russian military is not following proper command structures or procedures. Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov stated that Prigozhin formed an alliance with the Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin.[12] Budanov noted that both Prigozhin and Surovikin are rivals of Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, and that Prigozhin used the alliance to his advantage to receive heavy weapons from Russian Armed Forces for Wagner forces
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces will likely struggle to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and may seek to initiate a tactical or operational pause.
Russian siloviki may be setting information conditions to justify the nationalization of oligarchs' resources to sponsor Russia’s war effort.
Ukrainian intelligence continues to suggest that the Russian military is not following proper command structures or procedures.
Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Kreminna-Svatove line.
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian SPETSNAZ are likely reconnoitering the Dnipro River delta to study Ukrainian defenses in right bank Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces struck a residential area of Kherson City with a Grad multiple launch rocket system, killing at least 10 and injuring 55.
The Russian Orthodox Church — a Kremlin-affiliated institution — asked the Kremlin for a mobilization exemption for its clergy, despite avidly supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Russian officials are planning to take children from Horlivka, Donetsk to Belarus, possibly as a scheme to deport Ukrainian children.
ISW introduced a new section in the update to track daily observed indicators and counter-indicators consistent with the current assessed most dangerous course of action – a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:32 pm to StormyMcMan
[quote]Observed indicators for the MDCOA in the past 24 hours:
Geolocated footage posted on December 23 shows Russian forces shipping about 40 tanks (including T-62, T-80, and T-90M models) in Rostov Oblast, possibly towards Belarus.[69]
Observed ambiguous indicators for MDCOA in the past 24 hours:
Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander Serhiy Nayev stated on December 24 that Russian forces in Belarus deployed one motorized rifle battalion and two tank battalions to unspecified areas along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border.[70]
Independent imagery analysis of Russian forces in Belarus found that Russian forces maintain about 10,000 personnel in Belarus, about 5,000 of whom are stationed at the 230th Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus as of December 23.[71]
Observed counter-indicators for the MDCOA in the past 24 hours:
The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated that it has not observed Russian forces in Belarus forming a strike group as of December 24.[72]
Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov told the New York Times on December 23 that Russia is trying to divert Ukrainian forces from the southeast by setting up a feint in Belarus, noting that military activity in Belarus is an element of a disinformation campaign.[73] Budanov stated that the Russian force arrayment in Belarus does not indicate preparations for an offensive and that Russian forces in Belarus do not have enough armored equipment for a mechanized assault.[/quote]
Geolocated footage posted on December 23 shows Russian forces shipping about 40 tanks (including T-62, T-80, and T-90M models) in Rostov Oblast, possibly towards Belarus.[69]
Observed ambiguous indicators for MDCOA in the past 24 hours:
Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander Serhiy Nayev stated on December 24 that Russian forces in Belarus deployed one motorized rifle battalion and two tank battalions to unspecified areas along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border.[70]
Independent imagery analysis of Russian forces in Belarus found that Russian forces maintain about 10,000 personnel in Belarus, about 5,000 of whom are stationed at the 230th Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in Brest, Belarus as of December 23.[71]
Observed counter-indicators for the MDCOA in the past 24 hours:
The Ukrainian General Staff reiterated that it has not observed Russian forces in Belarus forming a strike group as of December 24.[72]
Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Kyrylo Budanov told the New York Times on December 23 that Russia is trying to divert Ukrainian forces from the southeast by setting up a feint in Belarus, noting that military activity in Belarus is an element of a disinformation campaign.[73] Budanov stated that the Russian force arrayment in Belarus does not indicate preparations for an offensive and that Russian forces in Belarus do not have enough armored equipment for a mechanized assault.[/quote]
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:33 pm to arkiebrian
quote:
Obama was prez when Russia invaded Crimea. Biden has reacted very differently with the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine.
When the USSR broke up in 89/90 NATO should have dissolved. Had it done so we wouldn’t have this conflict happening today.
Why didn’t NATO dissolve? Ask Eisenhower about the military/industrial complex that runs our country.
The voting on this is pathetic. Do better.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 10:25 pm to StormyMcMan
Hardly the makings of an offensive
Posted on 12/24/22 at 10:51 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 12/25/22 at 6:39 am to USMEagles
quote:
When the USSR broke up in 89/90 NATO should have dissolved. Had it done so we wouldn’t have this conflict happening today.
Yeah, I didn't bother responding the first time, but when the Soviet Union collapsed, there was actually hope that Russia would join NATO (and the free world).
Remember that NATO's primary function has been to guard against the external threat of the Soviets/Russians, but its other purpose has been to prevent wars inside the alliance. Greece and Turkey, for example, would almost certainly have fought a major war by now if they weren't in NATO.
But that wasn't the path that Russia chose, because Russia wanted to maintain it's status as a world power, and it needed to stay in opposition to NATO if that was to be.
This post was edited on 12/25/22 at 6:40 am
Posted on 12/25/22 at 6:46 am to RLDSC FAN
Enemy redeploying equipment, manpower to Berdiansk and Melitopol
25.12.2022 12:55
Russian invaders redeploy additional units of military equipment, manpower from Mariupol through Manhush to Berdiansk and Melitopol.
"A big number of military equipment entered from the Russian side and moved through Manhush (Mariupol district) towards Berdiansk/Melitopol. The columns were partially formed from the base in the village of Ahrobaza," Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to Mariupol mayor, posted on Telegram.
The Russians also redeployed to Manhush part of the military equipment, manpower, and military logistics earlier based in the village of Urzuf. They were included in the columns formed in Mariupol/Ahrobaza.
"Part of the military force – manpower on trucks with attached small-caliber guns – has been moved from the village of Urzuf towards Berdiansk. Additional units arrived from Russia. They were accommodated in the area of cottage houses shielded with a large number of civilians," Andriushchenko wrote.
UKRINFORM
25.12.2022 12:55
Russian invaders redeploy additional units of military equipment, manpower from Mariupol through Manhush to Berdiansk and Melitopol.
"A big number of military equipment entered from the Russian side and moved through Manhush (Mariupol district) towards Berdiansk/Melitopol. The columns were partially formed from the base in the village of Ahrobaza," Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to Mariupol mayor, posted on Telegram.
The Russians also redeployed to Manhush part of the military equipment, manpower, and military logistics earlier based in the village of Urzuf. They were included in the columns formed in Mariupol/Ahrobaza.
"Part of the military force – manpower on trucks with attached small-caliber guns – has been moved from the village of Urzuf towards Berdiansk. Additional units arrived from Russia. They were accommodated in the area of cottage houses shielded with a large number of civilians," Andriushchenko wrote.
UKRINFORM
Posted on 12/25/22 at 6:46 am to DabosDynasty
Looks like banks are running out of money in Russia and pensioners not getting any money. Sure Russia is solvent.
Posted on 12/25/22 at 7:50 am to CitizenK
quote:
pensioners not getting any money.
Link? Not shocking but just want to see the source
Posted on 12/25/22 at 8:41 am to HonorThyWarEagle
quote:
Is Opytne fully in Ukrainian control or does it still have a Russian presence?
A few minutes ago, from the generally reliable @NOELreports:
quote:
Opytne, south of Bakhmut. The area is completely cleared of Russian forces. The town is under full control. With great help of the 53rd brigade.
Posted on 12/25/22 at 2:13 pm to CitizenK
@DefMon3 posts this from a pro-Russian Telegram channel. I think that we are now entering a new stage of this war.
It's really crazy when you think about it: Russia started this war with lots of artillery and a shortage of men. After the initial failure to take Kyiv, they decided to use that artillery advantage to take the Donbas.
They unleashed a tremendous flood of artillery to take a bit of the Donbas, but they used up all their shells.
Now, Russia has done a mobilization and has plenty of men, but they face a shortage of ammo for their artillery.
It's really crazy when you think about it: Russia started this war with lots of artillery and a shortage of men. After the initial failure to take Kyiv, they decided to use that artillery advantage to take the Donbas.
They unleashed a tremendous flood of artillery to take a bit of the Donbas, but they used up all their shells.
Now, Russia has done a mobilization and has plenty of men, but they face a shortage of ammo for their artillery.
Posted on 12/25/22 at 6:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
There are a number of reports (and several videos) indicating that Ukraine attacked Engels Air Base in Russia again.
Remember that this is one of the bases where Russia stations its strategic bombers, and Ukraine hit it on December 5th with one of its modified TU-141 jet drones.
I've seen one Ukrainian source saying that, instead of jets on the runway like last time, this time the target was a warehouse for missile storage.
We'll have to wait to see if Ukraine actually hit anything, or if the drone was shot down.
Remember that this is one of the bases where Russia stations its strategic bombers, and Ukraine hit it on December 5th with one of its modified TU-141 jet drones.
I've seen one Ukrainian source saying that, instead of jets on the runway like last time, this time the target was a warehouse for missile storage.
We'll have to wait to see if Ukraine actually hit anything, or if the drone was shot down.
Posted on 12/25/22 at 6:50 pm to GOP_Tiger
A Mig-31 burned down at the Machulichy airfield in Belarus. I’m really amazed at how incompetent the Russian Air Force has been.
Posted on 12/25/22 at 7:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
There are a number of both Russian and Ukrainian reports that Ukraine made progress near Kreminna today -- but so far, no video or concrete evidence.
But Ukraine was only a few kilometers away from the outskirts of Kreminna, so any progress there could be significant.
But Ukraine was only a few kilometers away from the outskirts of Kreminna, so any progress there could be significant.
Posted on 12/25/22 at 7:58 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Looks like banks are running out of money in Russia and pensioners not getting any money. Sure Russia is solvent.
I've got a legitimate question here. To make this question even more bizarre I have to admit that I have an MBA with an emphasis on International Finance. And I don't know the answer to this:
How in the frick can a sovereign government run out of its own currency?
Why can't it just print the money it needs to pay its pensioners, school teachers, soldiers, etc.?
I understand that this is the root cause of inflation. But it's not a monetary policy issue that's keeping civil servants from being paid. It appears to be some other issue beyond my understanding.
You heard it 30 years ago. When the Soviet Union collapsed. That soldiers and school teachers weren't paid for months or years or whatever.
And you hear it now. Soldiers are promised 100,000 Rubles to enlist. They enlist and the Rubles never show up.
What is the problem? If Putin gives the word the Russian Central Bank can just press a button and 100,000 Rubles is in that soldier's account.
It doesn't have to buy those Rubles on the international market. It doesn't have to ask anyone permission. It says the Rubles exist, so they do in fact exist.
What the heck am I missing?
Posted on 12/25/22 at 8:01 pm to No Colors
Probably something related to the sanctions.
Trying to prevent a run on rubles as that would destroy the economy completely.
If they started printed and devaluing it more, people would start exchanging it for anything they could and that would be that.
Just guessing
Trying to prevent a run on rubles as that would destroy the economy completely.
If they started printed and devaluing it more, people would start exchanging it for anything they could and that would be that.
Just guessing
Posted on 12/25/22 at 8:23 pm to No Colors
quote:
What the heck am I missing?
Demand increase without the supply to back it up. Consequently, prices increase substantially, causing the currency to become worthless.
Posted on 12/25/22 at 8:34 pm to SlimTigerSlap
Pension system or some part of the banking system may have been hacked?
This post was edited on 12/25/22 at 8:35 pm
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