re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On the Eastern front:

This guy's reports and maps have a history of being somewhat optimistic for Ukraine, but I think that he is correct about steady Ukrainian progress northwest of Svatove.

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AFU presence in Krokhmal'ne. By having control over it, Tabaivka, Pischchane and Berestove have to be under AFU control as well.

After 5 days of shelling and no proven RU presence i mark Pershotravnene, Cherneshchyna liberated.

I added yellow unconfirmed flags

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I think that Russians talking about pushing back Ukrainian forces south of Svatove (west of Kreminna) have exaggerated their success, but I don't think that Ukraine is making any progress there.

Of course, if Ukraine can take Svatove, then they can push south from there and pressure Kreminna that way, so Ukraine doesn't need to advance there right now if they are still making progress further north.

Remember, the way to think about Ukraine's strategy in the Eastern theater is to see Svatove as opening up the road to Starobilsk and cutting the remaining railway from Russia to the area, and Kreminna as opening up the ability to flank Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, recover those cities, and then push south to flank Russian troops outside Bakhmut.

You know it’s getting really bad when the Russians are breaking out the 80 year old D1 artillery. You couldn’t pay my arse with all the rubles in Russia to be the first son of a bitch to fire that thing. It’s just as likely to blow everyone up around it as it is to fire a shell downrange. It’s max range is only 12 km as well so they will have to be used very close to the front lines and within heavy mortar range.

My previous working theory on the bridge strike was that it was a missile. My theory operated on the following logic:

1) Neither Russia nor Ukraine would want to admit that the bridge was hit with ATACMS.

2) After the Saki airbase strike a while back, both Russian and Ukrainian sources talked about special forces and sabotage, before Ukraine actually admitted a month later that it was actually a missile strike, which indicated that Ukraine had a very limited number of missiles that could strike that far.

3) The truck-bomb theory is complex. There's the complexity of Ukrainian forces assembling the bomb (either in Russia, or as now claimed, in Georgia). There's the difficulty of getting it past security at the bridge, as well as past the Georgia/Russia border. We know that it wasn't a suicide bomber, or he would have been in the other lane, closer to the rail bridge. So, that would mean that Ukraine had to have eyes on the truck and the ability to remotely detonate the bomb. This would likely involve a Ukrainian SOF operative driving some distance behind the truck and seeing when it was roughly lined up with the fuel cars on the rail bridge.

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But I've now changed my mind. This long post examines the scene in greater detail that I have previously seen from anyone else and is quite persuasive in displaying the evidence that it was a truck bomb.

Another piece of evidence that goes against the ATACMS theory (that he doesn't mention) is that ATACMS are normally accurate to within two meters. If Ukraine had used ATACMS, they would have hit the rail bridge, as that is most critical for Russian logistics. Those missiles aren't so inaccurate that they would hit the road bridge, much less the lane further away from the rail bridge.

This doesn't completely disprove the idea of the Ukrainian Grim missile, but as the author states, that missile's warhead is probably too small to have caused the explosion we see, and it's extremely unlikely that Ukraine could have launched such a missile without any Russian effort to shoot it down. The Saki airbase strike was unexpected, and perhaps Russian air defenses were lax, but Russia has been expecting a strike on the bridge (remember the 20 ways that it was protected?).

So, I now think that the evidence for the truck bomb is compelling. Read the linked report and tell me what you think.

BWAHAHAHA, he means his own poorly trained troops could easily topple the government. Plus and excuse not to be used in Ukraine where they would be decimated. Instead Luka is waiting out Putin's demise.

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Our favorite State TV host Solovyov is big made about the absolute state of the Russian military.

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I can't help but like the guy. He's a fan fav heel.

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So, that would mean that Ukraine had to have eyes on the truck and the ability to remotely detonate the bomb. This would likely involve a Ukrainian SOF operative driving some distance behind the truck and seeing when it was roughly lined up with the fuel cars on the rail bridge.

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A smart detonator preprogrammed with GPS coordinates could fill the role of SOF operative. The fuel cars being there may have been coincidental.

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A smart detonator preprogrammed with GPS coordinates could fill the role of SOF operative. The fuel cars being there may have been coincidental.

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Yes, but the detonation point is not one that would have likely been chosen, except for the fuel cars on the rail bridge.

Absent the fuel cars on the rail bridge, the logical place to blow the bomb was further ahead, after the road bridge rose up to its highest point (where ships go underneath). Damage to the road bridge that high up would be much more difficult to repair.

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A smart detonator preprogrammed with GPS coordinates could fill the role of SOF operative. The fuel cars being there may have been coincidental.

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One other point that leads away from a suicide bomber was when the truck blew up it was in the right lane, had it been a suicide bomber he would have almost certainly moved to the inside lane before detonating so it would have had more impact on the opposite travel spans.

Warographics look at General Winter and from a historical perspective how it may impact the coming months.

YT

TLDW: Winter is not the huge advantage for Russia it is mythologized as, it comes down to who is best prepared, has the best logistics, and just doesn't frickup (General FUBAR).

Awesome