re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

So, now that we know more about the damage situation, what's the impact of the strike? It does complicate Russian logistics somewhat, but I think the bigger impact is psychological: Ukraine shows Russia that they are going to lose everything that they ever gained in Ukraine. The Kerch Bridge, like the Moskva, has been a symbol of Russian dominance. And everyone on both sides now knows that Ukraine has the capability to strike the bridge again -- it has the smell of doom on it.

---

I made an unpopular post a month or so ago on the value of the bridge as a bargaining chip when parties come to the table. The more intact it is the more bargaining value it has. Here Ukraine possibly inadvertently has increased the bargaining value by not completely destroying the bridge.

There is a legend from the Yom Kippur war regarding the Aswan dam. As the legend goes the Israelis flew over the dam and bombed it with paint. This clearly showed they had the capability to destroy the dam without destroying it. At that point, the dam became major leverage in the conflict where previously the Arabs didn't see it as a real possibility so the threats had no value. Again, this might have been inadvertent but the Kremlin now realizes 20 layers of protection was not enough, maybe they need 21 layers, or maybe they need 101. They simply don't know. The Crimean bridge is clearly on the board now.

In any event, the blow was far more effective long-term psychologically than logistically but in Russia's current state you can bet the logistical value will be felt. When you are six feet underwater and breathing through a straw you are slowly dying while you try to surface, even a tiny reduction in oxygen that reaches your alveoli is felt and reduces your chances of ever taking a full unimpeded breath again.

We at least know it wasn’t an ATACMS that did it as they would still be well out of range if you fired from around Kherson. This is either some kind of SOF operation, a truck bomb or one of those Ukrainian missiles they just came out with.

quote:

---

That looks more like lifted from below than from a bomb from above. It still could set off BLAZES in the multiple tanks cars above which it did, unless another charge was planted on a tank car. The rail bridge was definitely weakened from the heat of the tank cars which burned for hours, flame was coming out of both sides from under the rail bridge.

---

How would that explain the wide burn pattern across the lanes that weren’t directly hit? The tiny pic below shows the blast orginating from the side of the traffic lanes and expanding across all lanes and towards the train bridge to the left in the pic.

Your boy needs some milk.

Why can’t Russians catch?

Damn it. The one time I decide to take a week off from the war the crazy bass turds finally go and do the damn thing.

War is hell and that was awful. Damn.

I hope they’re the extra large size because he’s a giant a-hole.

quote:

---

Consider the timing, why now?

---

Ground work to launch a new campaign into the south. Russia supplies lines to the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts run through Crimea. With one move the Ukrainians have cut the Russian supply lines in half. Based on what I have seen on twitter Russia is claiming that the rail bridge is back open but it is also likely only one track now and there are probably serious weight restrictions on the bridge. From the videos I have seen, the Russians are having to limit traffic to only two lanes along the length of the bridge and one lane at the site of the collapsed span. Traffic is going to be a nightmare for a little while. All of that means Russia's logistics are likely down to 25% capacity of what they were 2 days ago and even then the Russians were having a hard time keeping up with supply demand.

quote:

---

BrianKellyRespecter.

---

What’s insane to think about from watching that Reddit video is the lack of discipline and leadership by the Russian Army from the standpoint they don't wear helmets or body armor in their perspective area of operations.