re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update Sept 23

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The Russian mobilization system is struggling to execute the task Russian President Vladimir Putin set and will likely fail to produce mobilized reserve forces even of the low quality that Putin’s plans would have generated unless the Kremlin can rapidly fix fundamental and systemic problems.

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Russian pro-war milbloggers and social media users are raising concerns about unlawful mobilization practices and showcasing many serious Russian mobilization problems on the second day of the mobilization effort.

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Challenges and errors in the first days of executing a large-scale and demanding partial mobilization in the midst of a failing war are not necessarily surprising, although they suggest that the Russian military mobilization infrastructure was not better prepared for a major war than the Russian armed forces themselves.

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Divergences from the mobilization decree and from Putin’s and Shoigu’s statements about the categories of men who are exempt from mobilization are also causing anger and mistrust toward Russian federal subjects and the Kremlin itself.

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The highly nationalist and pro-war milblogger community is calling on the Kremlin to address these mobilization issues rapidly, but the Kremlin is unlikely to be able to meet their demands

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Disparate mobilization processes across different regions may exacerbate social tensions in Russia already raised by perceived inequalities in the creation of volunteer battalions

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Key Takeaways

Russian partial mobilization efforts are suffering from serious and systemic problems in their first days, generating popular resentment and setting conditions to produce a mobilized reserve force incapable of accomplishing the tasks Russian President Vladimir Putin has set for it.

Protests, attacks against recruiting centers, and vandalism have occurred across Russia in the first 48 hours after the announcement of partial mobilization.

Ukrainian forces continued to advance north and northwest of Lyman.

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast and maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian progress on the axis.

Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults near Bakhmut and northwest of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down an Iranian-made Mohajer-6 drone in an unspecified area of the Black Sea, likely near Odesa.

Russian occupation authorities began the voting period for their sham annexation referenda on September 23 with overt coercion and falsified turnout numbers.

Russian occupation authorities remained on high alert to prevent partisan attacks against sham election workers, polling stations, and government facilities.

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I downvoted not for the link but the news is really sad

Russians massively hand out mobilisation notices to Crimean Tatars who have to flee from Crimea

Crimean Tatars are fleeing from occupied Crimea because they don’t want to fight against their own country and kill Ukrainians.

Source: sources among Crimean Tatars in occupied Crimea,; CrimeaSOS

Details: The mobilisation campaign started in Crimea primarily affects Crimean Tatars.

80% of all mobilisation notices in Crimea were handed to Crimean Tatars.

Details: Many flee Crimea with their families as they don’t want to fight. People flee to the nearest border countries: Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus.

Human right activists from the "Crimea SOS" organization state that the mobilization of Crimean Tatars may lead to genocide. According to their estimates, Crimean Tatars received 90% of mobilisation notices in Crimea.

Ukrainska Pravda

That fits perfectly with the other reports of the mobilization being aimed at those less desirable segments of their population and the regions already hit disproportionately from the war. When are governments (including our own) going to figure out that in this information world we live in these type of actions can’t be hidden?

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That fits perfectly with the other reports of the mobilization being aimed at those less desirable segments of their population

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I am very, very interested to see what happens with the reports that Kadryov has refused to do mobilization in Chechnya.

Good point

@flash_news_ua

Don't know how much stock I put in this but dangerous escalation if true

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Russians used chemical weapons: there were no casualties and critical states. Operational Command “Pivden” (South) reports.

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Using an unmanned aerial vehicle, containers containing a toxic substance, presumably a K-51 chloropicrin grenade, were dropped on Ukrainian combat positions.

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More drunk arrivals for duty… with English subtitles

LINK

Thus far most of the Russians who were KIA are "Asian" He is using this to cleanse Russia at least some of non Slavs