re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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I’m not counting on good faith though. I’m counting on fear.

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Fear of what? Putin is far more careless of human life than any leader in the West. What gives you any indication that anything could supersede Putin's security concerns? Not even the massive concessions he gained prior to the invasion satisfied those concerns. Given that Russia and not anyone else brought up the use of nuclear weapons first, what evidence do you have that they are not going to be cynical with those weapons as well? Putin, in the lead-up to this war, was the literal embodiment of elevating his security concerns over the entirety of Europe. What exactly does he have to fear? Did fear drive him to mention the use of nuclear weapons in an offensive action? Why would he mention it at all other than to get the West to capitulate to his desires, just like you want to do because of energy and food concerns?

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so lets end it ASAP.

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Na, you dont reward children or dogs for bad behavior and the same holds true for dictators.

Or, he can just go back to Russia. Either way.

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I guess it depends on the details of armistice. In some ways WWI is still raging.

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I mean, in the geopolitical sense, it is far older than that. But there is no guarantee of an armistice in the event the US 'leaves' nor is there any guarantee that the Russians would actually seek out peace. Think like a state for a second. The reality of geopolitics is that you cannot be certain about the intentions of other states. In this instance, Russia has been unbelievably clear about their stated war goals, to a degree that beggars belief. They aren't even trying to use any moderating descriptions of their war aims. You know how Russia will act in this instance. In this prisoner's dilemma, it is clear that what the wider Western world is completely irrelevant to the actual escalation. We know that because in negotiations prior to the invasion, Putin got everything he wanted, yet still invaded. Any capitulation by the West ahead of the invasion, in an effort to avoid war, was meaningless. Thus we know that Russia is going to act in a singular way, because none of those exceedingly large concessions actually moderated Russian actions. This is the geopolitical reality. If the US leaves, there will still be war and if the US stays there will still be war, because war is clearly what the Russians want. Russian actions before the invasion are directly and immediately relevant to that previous statement. What should the US do, if what the US-led West does in terms of concessions are not actually meaningful to the Russians? I'm not making anything up, I'm literally talking about how Russia behaved before the war, where they could have gotten an insane amount of concessions in order to avoid war, but still chose to invade. That leads one to a very specific conclusion, which you yourself admitted and don't want to seem to say outright for some reason.

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But there is no guarantee of an armistice in the event the US 'leaves' nor is there any guarantee that the Russians would actually seek out peace.

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Even if we cut our aid to Ukraine (we wont) the US isnt going anywhere. In fact the opposite is true. There is a massive military buildup in Poland, Latvia and Romania with permanent housing for large numbers of troops. New rotational deployments to those bases are already happening and are part of the NATO buildup. And for fun some new airfields even closer to Russia's border.

The US/NATO isnt going anywhere.

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Russian capital has been fleeing Russia since the 1st week of March. Much of it to Kazakhstan.

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I find this element in particular very interesting. I don’t know much about the Kazakhs aside from their Uranium and O&G deposits, and of course the flight of Chinese crypto miners to them over the last year plus, but intrigued over the next decade or two potentially much of Russian power/influence could be shifted to Kazakhstan, hopefully as a better regional player.

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and right on the cue, the poli board is convinced this was a CIA op

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How many are blaming Hillary?

Not really, Russia got pushed back from Kyiv without our help. Oh and the Javelins, many shipped without battery pack which is very specifically for only a javelin.

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We" aren't rewarding anyone. Doesn't appear we are punishing anyone either.

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Putin is not going to accept anything short of keeping what his troops are currently occupying and the removal of sanctions against Russia. Negotiations for peace now would be rewarding Putin because he would get to keep the occupied parts of Ukraine and refill his war chest by selling gas to Europe at record high prices. However, once Ukraine has pushed the Russians out of Kharkiv and/or are pushing the Russians out of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and forcing the Russians to fall back into Crimea then Putin might negotiate in good faith because he will want to keep Crimea. You can laugh at the prospect of the Ukrainians taking Crimea, but Crimea is very vulnerable. If/when the Ukrainians breakthrough the Russian positions in Kherson and/or the Zaporizhzhia Oblast there is no natural barrier to slow the Ukrainians until they reach the mountains outside of Sevastapol in which case Sevastapol will be within HIMARs range and it wouldn’t take the HIMARs long to destroy the Black Sea Fleets facilities. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast and most of the Kherson Oblast are flat fields and since they are so close to the Black Sea they are not affected by the Rasputitsia which is how the Russians were able to advance from Crimea to Mariupol in less than a week. If Crimea is threatened then Russia might be convinced to give the Donbas back to Ukraine in order to keep the Ukrainians out of Crimea.

Even if peace is negotiated, it will be a short one. Ukraine will need even more western aid to completely convert its military to NATO equipment. It will needs lots of NATO SAM systems, fighters, tanks, etc. If you look at Russian history you will see that they don’t stay peaceful for long after they have been defeated. Ukraine and Russia will be back at war with each other within 20 years.