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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 8/11/22 at 11:58 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 8/11/22 at 11:58 am to Chromdome35
I have seen a lot of speculation that it was an ATACMs strike.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1557182534651346944
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1557182534651346944
quote:
KHERSON/0200 UTC 10 AUG/ UKR Air Force utilized HARM missiles to destroy four S-300 anti-air complexes near Nova Kakhovka. It is assessed that this interdiction helped to facilitate the strike on Crimea by preventing RU early warning radars from tracking the launch of ACTACMs.
1
Posted on 8/11/22 at 11:59 am to Chromdome35
quote:
SEA-GOING COPE CAGE? Fearing missile attack, the RU navy has resulted to lashing TOR anti-air systems to the flight decks of surface ships. These land based systems are not ‘navalized’-- and are thus unsuitable for use at sea-- their usefulness is highly doubtful.
Images from their test trials just emerged.
This post was edited on 8/11/22 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:00 pm to Chromdome35
Is that Ukraine or New Orleans? Either way, Entergy bills just went up.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:04 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
that it was an ATACMs strike.
No doubt
quote:
KHERSON/0200 UTC 10 AUG/ UKR Air Force utilized HARM missiles to destroy four S-300 anti-air complexes near Nova Kakhovka. It is assessed that this interdiction helped to facilitate the strike on Crimea by preventing RU early warning radars from tracking the launch of ACTACMs.
In the real world of modern militaries thats an anvil falling on your head the airfield is about to be targeted. At least move the aircraft....
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:08 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
In the real world of modern militaries thats an anvil falling on your head the airfield is about to be targeted. At least move the aircraft....
Unless you are in Russia then you grab vodka and watch the boom.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:11 pm to cypher
My thoughts are that all the planes we are seeing were damaged or destroyed. I would imagine they would have moved anything they could to protect them by the time the next sat image was taken (24hrs later)
The shock wave of the primary and secondary explosions likely damaged the airframes if. It outright infighting the planes we see as char marks.
The shock wave of the primary and secondary explosions likely damaged the airframes if. It outright infighting the planes we see as char marks.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:12 pm to WeeWee
Do you (anyone) know what the ethnic breakdown in Crimea is?
I know Russia claimed it is mostly Russian but there has always been chatter about resistance since 2014.
I know Russia claimed it is mostly Russian but there has always been chatter about resistance since 2014.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:15 pm to Lakeboy7
quote:
Do you (anyone) know what the ethnic breakdown in Crimea is? I know Russia claimed it is mostly Russian but there has always been chatter about resistance since 2014.
It was like 65% Russian with about 15% based on the most recent census. Now I wonder how many of the Russians are military personnel and how many civilians are in traffic jams trying to flee?
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:21 pm to WeeWee
quote:
It was like 65% Russian with about 15% based on the most recent census.
Yeah I see that but guess who conducted the census?
Crimea is wide open for partisan activity, hopefully they have some organization.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:23 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
The #Kremlin’s changing plans suggest that occupying forces will likely move up the date of the annexation referenda in occupied #Ukraine, and occupation authorities have taken measures to hold sham referenda at any time.
quote:LINK
The advisor to Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast Civil Military Administration, Serhiy Khlan, claimed on August 10 that occupation forces have stopped discussing September 11 as a date for Russia’s sham referenda on the annexation of occupied Ukrainian territories.
The Ruskies are losing their chest and backing out of the rigged elections.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:25 pm to WeeWee
quote:
how many civilians are in traffic jams trying to flee?
This is what I think is most telling of the air base attack. Up till that point, Russians were vacationing close to a war front and not thinking twice about the danger. After seeing the smoke/explosions they have a different understanding of reality.
When those tourist return home what do u think they will tell their friends…..
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:47 pm to RLDSC FAN
ISW: Ukrainian officials using confusion about Crimea explosions to obfuscate Ukraine's longer-range capabilities
Instead, Ukrainian officials are playing up the evident Russian confusion surrounding the attack to obfuscate Ukraine's longer-range capabilities. An anonymous Ukrainian official told the New York Times that the attack was carried out with the help of partisans. Another anonymous Ukrainian official told the Washington Post that Ukrainian special forces caused the explosion, while other Ukrainian officials implicitly referenced the attack but did not overtly take credit for it.
ISW still cannot independently assess what caused the explosions at the airfield - satellite imagery depicts multiple craters and scorch marks, but such damage could have been caused by many things - special forces, partisans, or missiles, on-site or from a distance.
The head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, Refat Chubarov, said that Russian citizens illegally staying in Crimea received the first "call" about the need to immediately leave the occupied territory.
Since Russia's annexation of Crimea eight years ago, from 600,000 to 1.5 million Russians moved there, whereas 30,000 Crimean Tatars were forced to leave the peninsula.
UKRINFORM
Instead, Ukrainian officials are playing up the evident Russian confusion surrounding the attack to obfuscate Ukraine's longer-range capabilities. An anonymous Ukrainian official told the New York Times that the attack was carried out with the help of partisans. Another anonymous Ukrainian official told the Washington Post that Ukrainian special forces caused the explosion, while other Ukrainian officials implicitly referenced the attack but did not overtly take credit for it.
ISW still cannot independently assess what caused the explosions at the airfield - satellite imagery depicts multiple craters and scorch marks, but such damage could have been caused by many things - special forces, partisans, or missiles, on-site or from a distance.
The head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, Refat Chubarov, said that Russian citizens illegally staying in Crimea received the first "call" about the need to immediately leave the occupied territory.
Since Russia's annexation of Crimea eight years ago, from 600,000 to 1.5 million Russians moved there, whereas 30,000 Crimean Tatars were forced to leave the peninsula.
UKRINFORM
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:02 pm to Coeur du Tigre
To add one more possibility to the options of what hit the Saki Air Base in Crimea, there is some thought that they were Ukrainian-manufactured Hrim-2 intermediate missiles. These missiles have been in production in older series for years, however this is the latest version. It has a 200km+ range but uses a satellite-assisted inertial navigation system guidance package. Certainly not as accurate as the US HIMARS guidance system.
But - the thinking is the original guidance system was replaced by a US design, thus giving the pinpoint accuracy we see on the photos and allowing the Ukrainians to state that the weapons used were Ukrainian made.
If this was indeed a missile strike, 'using domestically-developed weapons would only add to its propaganda value, having already demonstrated an ability to penetrate past Russia's substantial air and missile defenses to hit a key target in occupied Crimea.' No doubt the HARMS anti-radar activity opened the door, however as a propaganda victory the success of this strike is huge.
However, there is bad news. The Russians quickly replaced all and more of the destroyed S-300 anti-missile systems. These are the new S-300 Light systems and are just as effective as the previous version.
Watch your head.
But - the thinking is the original guidance system was replaced by a US design, thus giving the pinpoint accuracy we see on the photos and allowing the Ukrainians to state that the weapons used were Ukrainian made.
quote:
The U.S. government has not been willing to supply such a capability in the form of land-attack cruise missiles or ATACMS ballistic missiles due to the risk of escalating and broadening the conflict. But, helping Ukraine build its own weapons would be a different story, and Ukraine had just such a weapon relatively deeply in development, as well as others.
If this was indeed a missile strike, 'using domestically-developed weapons would only add to its propaganda value, having already demonstrated an ability to penetrate past Russia's substantial air and missile defenses to hit a key target in occupied Crimea.' No doubt the HARMS anti-radar activity opened the door, however as a propaganda victory the success of this strike is huge.
However, there is bad news. The Russians quickly replaced all and more of the destroyed S-300 anti-missile systems. These are the new S-300 Light systems and are just as effective as the previous version.
Watch your head.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:11 pm to cypher
First post on page 1000 and page 1500. 
This post was edited on 8/11/22 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:37 pm to Coeur du Tigre
I was told as long as the attacks on grain ships leaving the ports stopped the Bridge in Crimea was not to be attacked. The folks I talked to said that there might be an appropriate display of down and distance that would dissuade RU from such an attack. I was also told that the display might help rectify the one situation (air superiority) that would prevent a massive counterattack by Ukrainian forces. The stuff that’s happening in Belarus and Russia proper also sets the conditions for troop movements.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:38 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Video from Ukraine's 53rd Mechanized Brigade of a Russian T-72 tank driving into a pond.
I guess the N. Koreans have arrived in Ukraine. You can tell from their driving.
The music accompanying the video is hilarious.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:42 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
19 posts away from 30K...
At 30k, OML and Ruff Fish will spring out of a birthday cake and formally recognize diplomatic relations between the poliboard and the Donetsk People's Republic.
This post was edited on 8/11/22 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:45 pm to LSUCanFAN
quote:
I was told as long as the attacks on grain ships leaving the ports stopped the Bridge in Crimea was not to be attacked. The folks I talked to said that there might be an appropriate display of down and distance that would dissuade RU from such an attack. I was also told that the display might help rectify the one situation (air superiority) that would prevent a massive counterattack by Ukrainian forces. The stuff that’s happening in Belarus and Russia proper also sets the conditions for troop movements.
My sauce(s) in Ukrainian intel was vague but said Ukraine definitely has some new hot homemade weapons to try. He confirmed that Ukraine decided to test one of those weapons at a real target recently. He said that they also have a version of that weapon that can reach Moscow if needed.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:48 pm to Chromdome35
Considering with discounts and production costs, Russia is making under $100 million per day. My guess is that ate their oil sales that day and then some
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