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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:26 pm to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:26 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Lima Whiskey
Who let the damn commie in?
0
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:30 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
quote:
What's your solution?
What it’s been for months: if they attack a NATO state, it’s war. Beyond that, do nothing.
That's what the US should do. What is your solution for Ukraine that establishes somekind of lasting peace that is actually honored by Russia
This post was edited on 7/10/22 at 8:37 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:33 pm to OMLandshark
My solution is to help Ukraine and coach them and give them to the tools they need to whip the bully's arse. Do you want to be part of the solution or sit on the sideline. We all live on the same planet. Do you want democracies or oligarchies and mobs to run the world.
I already know your answer. (Deflect) So no need for reply
I already know your answer. (Deflect) So no need for reply
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:33 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
He says they’re figuring out what hardware they would need from NATO, to accomplish that mission.
Well maybe he needs some new Russian SAMs. They are so reliable. Just ask Malaysia Airlines ir their own crews.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:35 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Russian forces are in the midst of a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine.
quote:
Russian milblogger Rybar provided more evidence of tensions between the Russian military command and Russian war correspondents
quote:
Rybar stated that the Russian Defense Ministry and possibly actors within the presidential administration are actively attempting to silence unofficial coverage of the Russian war in Ukraine.
quote:
Rybar noted that the relationship between the Russian military command and war correspondents particularly soured after Russian President Vladimir Putin met with war correspondents during the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on June 17
quote:
Putin likely held the June 17 meeting to defuse milblogger discontent, which had become evident and dramatic after the disastrous failed river crossing attempt at Bilohorivka in mid-May
quote:
The Russian information space would change significantly if the Ministry of Defense cracked down on the milbloggers and stopped them from operational reporting.
quote:
Russian milbloggers are increasingly criticizing Russian strategy and military leadership by seizing upon recent successful Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear areas.
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces are conducting a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine and engaging in operations to set conditions for future offensives.
Russian forces conducted limited probing operations northwest of Slovyansk.
Russian forces are likely intensifying artillery and missile strikes west of Bakhmut in order to isolate the city from critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs).
Russian forces conducted a limited and unsuccessful ground attack north of Donetsk City.
Russian military leadership continues to form ad hoc volunteer units and private military company combat organizations partly comprised of older men and criminals to support operations in Ukraine.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:38 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Fair enough, but what is your solution here?
Think it through man. You have one party that isn't negotiating in good faith and has determined the security of the region depends entirely about how their ruling elite 'feels' about their security. In that sense, you know how the Russians will act, with and without any peace agreement. You would be naïve to negotiate then without major leverage, which is what you want the Ukrainians to do right now if peace negotiations occurred at this exact moment. At the same time, the Russians have very little they can demand, as their security situation is now far worse than it ever was before, and there is no easy path to reintegration into the world economy. In that sense, you'd just be ensuring further conflict, which isn't really a pacifist position, but again, a position that is convenient for you. The problem with any peace approach now is that the no one trusts the Russians to negotiate from a position of good-faith, and thus any peace will be based on major leverage that can be gained in the interim. The West isn't responsible for Russia's cynicism. A more skilled politician than Putin would have gotten long-sought after security concessions through the build-up of troops on the border alone. Now his security is so much worse, by metrics that the Russian elites value, that a poorly negotiated peace also runs the risk of his power base diminishing.
There isn't an easy solution here. There might not be any political solution at all, other than fighting, which is the Clausewitzian position.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:43 pm to Korkstand
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:45 pm to crazy4lsu
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:45 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
How much of my neighbor’s property should I personally put up with another neighbor taking from him when that psychopath has got a bunch of kids that are known to be potential mass shooters and have biological weapons if we intervene and the cops are willing to do nothing about it? That’s the equivalence I’m seeing here. There’s lots of downsides to us directly intervening.
There are no cops in this scenario. The geopolitical world is anarchic. That's the main difference in that equivalence. Also in that equivalence, if the only thing that stops the psychopath is biologic weapons of your own, at which point you can punch back, that psychopath would do everything in their power to prevent your neighbor from gaining those weapons.
quote:
Yes, Putin is the main warmonger here, but here’s also another fact: Putin in all likelihood will be dead within ten years. Russia will live on though. And you demanding the harshest penalties may not backfire in the immediate, but they likely will in the long term.
The cynicism of Russia's elite is the issue. Putin's ideas don't exist in a vacuum. It's the same ethnonationalist bullshite we've heard for centuries now.
quote:
Which leads me to this video I’ve been watching all afternoon. Jordan Peterson has now given his verbal evaluation on the Ukraine crisis and he rightly says the bigger problem that led to this is the civil war in the West, which Russia is a part of as well, and where this will lead. It’s long, but Jordan Peterson speaks for me here. Call him a coward and see if you’re not laughed out of the room: Russia Vs Ukraine or Civil War in the West?
Peterson sucks. He should stay in his field.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:48 pm to StormyMcMan
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:50 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
That’s all I’m saying here, but lots of posters are saying there is, and how dare I question this simple solution.
Well it seems like you are advocating for a peace because you object to the war out of principle. However noble you feel that may be, it is also not the way the world works, or even how pacifist approach would work. A poorly negotiated peace by every party involved would lead to more conflict.
This post was edited on 7/10/22 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:51 pm to crazy4lsu
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:51 pm to crazy4lsu
Like Churchill said, “you can’t negotiate with a tiger when your head is in it’s mouth”. Right now Putin doesn’t want peace talks. He wants exactly what is happening. He wants to take take take because he himself has compared himself to Peter the Great and thinks he’s unstoppable. He cares little of his own people’s lives, much less Ukrainians. Sometimes the only way to shut a bully up is by force. The Ukrainians could have folded and let Putin take over months ago but they put their foot in the ground and fought back bravely. That alone warrants the western world to help them beat the bully back which would take all credibility from Putin on the world stage as well as in Russia. OML just wants to hand out flowers and make peace signs sitting around in a circlejerk.
This post was edited on 7/10/22 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:55 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
And where did this mentality end after World War I? Oh right, directly leading to World War II, and Russia has done much less to the world at large than Germany did to the Entente (especially since Germany sent Lenin to Russia).
And no one in here has suggested a peace solution anywhere near as punitive as that levied on the Germans at Versailles. Your comparison & concern is once again hyperbolic.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:57 pm to OMLandshark
But again, if that psychopath has shown they aren't willing to negotiate in good faith because their security is more important than your security, which they justify for insane reasons, then who is the problem? The fact here is that Russia won't act in good-faith until absolutely necessary. If you concede one thing to them, they'll ask for another and another and another. The fact that in their own myopia, they could have gotten far greater concessions before the war than after should speak to their cynicism. Negotiations are absolutely pointless until then, because again they aren't negotiating in good-faith. They are spewing same Nazi stuff about degeneracy, which is the term the Nazis used to describe cultural and artistic movements they felt didn't exalt their views. It's all nonsense. You'd do well to read what Sartre said about the anti-Semite, because the type of willful bad-faith has existed among the authoritarians for a long time.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 9:03 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
OMLandshark
So you have no ideas only complaints got it
Posted on 7/10/22 at 9:09 pm to LSUPilot07
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 9:11 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
It's the same ethnonationalist bullshite we've heard for centuries now.
Putin’s government revoked the dictum, declaring that the federations policies should reflect the interests of ethnic Russians first.
His government has privileged the republics, like Chechnya, even when they enacted policies that pushed out ethnic Russians. He also supported neighboring countries, specifically Kazakstan, when they marginalized ethnic Russians.
Under Putin the Republics have also formed state militia, with ethnic identities.
Putin has also imported large numbers of Central Asians to work in Russia.
He’s not an entho nationalist.
This post was edited on 7/10/22 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 9:13 pm to crazy4lsu
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 7/10/22 at 9:19 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
He’s not an entho nationalist
He certainly uses the rhetoric when he needs to. Regardless, he doesn't have much choice with respect to the republics in terms of demographics. Ethnic Russian demographics have absolutely cratered and won't likely ever recover. I believe they had excess deaths from each year post-2000, save for a few. It's an apocalyptic situation.
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