re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Lima,

What is your take on the developments in the Serverodontesk area?

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It is amazing. With the UK out of the EU this is the the moment for the Eurocentric French and Germans to assert themselves and Europe as a unified force not to be fricked with.

Instead it’s the US and UK once again largely holding the line for the western world order. I guess no has yet translated “The White Man’s Burden” into French or German.

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Yep, this is literally their moment and crickets largely. It won’t change until we let them suffer, but we’re obligated not to let them suffer via NATO.

It’s also a catch 22, we could let them suffer and France finally step up, Germany rearm and step up, but then a disaster would happen. Either Germany would Germany or they attack one another as they have historically or both.

What about this great Kherson counter offensive yall we’re getting off to last week?

Haven't followed it too closely today. Been busy keeping up with the communists getting their arse handed to them in Sievierdonetsk.

youtube

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What is your take on the developments in the Serverodontesk area?

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I’ve read the official government accounts that it was a trap. I do not believe that. They surrendered their prepared positions, only to try and retake them? That’s not a trap, that’s dumb. They wouldn’t do that.

I think, as others have said, that the military leadership ordered a withdrawal (which was the right thing to do) and Zelensky countermanded the order, to hold onto to Severodonetsk for a little while longer. Severodonetsk has some political value. And losing a city could jeopardize western military aid.

The Germans have been criticized for being very stingy with their aid. They’ve sent very little since the end of March. This makes more sense if you read the German press though, reports say German intelligence is very pessimistic about Ukraines chances.

So while retreating was the right thing to do, Zelensky understands that losses can endanger the war effort, and his government, western states are not only paying for the war, they’re funding the Ukrainian governments daily expenses too.

I’ve read the Ukrainian claims about retaking ground. They have taken some prisoners from the LPR (?), so that’s fully possible. The Ukrainian Telegram channel Rezident_UA says they’ve just reinforced their existing positions however.

I don’t know

Reinforcing Severodonetsk was a mistake though. Ukraine’s survival depends on the survival of the army, not on holding the Donbas. I think they would better off accepting the loss of the city, and Lysychansk, and saving their men. What is worse, losing a city, or losing fifteen or twenty thousand men?

But saving those men may no longer be possible either.

The Donetsk salient will collapse, sooner rather than later. The two roads into Lysychansk are both covered by Russian artillery, and footage from the roads show craters and destroyed vehicles. According to the reporter Neil Hauer, the roads are too dangerous to use.

There was footage on social media of one vehicle making that run, perhaps two weeks ago. A passenger is filming. They’re driving as fast as they can, the area is marked with shell holes, and there’s an explosion just up the road from them.

If they could secure the roads, they would. So we can assume they can’t.

That leaves them in a bad place. The should have left Lysychansk weeks ago.

They can stand their ground, and defend the city like Mariupol. Most of the men will die if they do this. Or they can try and fight their way out. That also means accepting heavy casualties. And if they go that route, do they have enough vehicles?

Photos this week showed them driving around the city in overloaded civilian vehicles, station wagons with tailgates open, sedans.

In 2015, the Ukrainians found themselves overextended in a salient at Debaltsevo. Officially, several hundred men were killed trying to get out. In actuality, they may have lost up to 6,000. Rebel forces collapsed the mouth of the salient, leaving just a narrow corridor, and hammered the Ukrainians with artillery as they tried to escape.

What’s going to happen here?

Still underway
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5

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Russian forces continued to hold their defensive lines and fire on Ukrainian positions along the Southern Axis on June 5.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces mined the bank of the Inhulets River in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson Oblast, indicating that Russian troops are feeling the pressure of recent localized Ukrainian counterattacks along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[24] Russian troops continued unsuccessful ground assaults in northern Kherson around Vysokopillya and Kochubeivka and intensively fired on the line of contact in Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.[25]

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Thank you for your thoughts.

What will happen? Well if the reports are true and Ukraine has retaken most of Severodontesk, then Russia will have to drive them out again. Can Russia drive them out again? I don’t think so, but we will see.

If Russia cannot retake the city would you agree it is a major setback for Russia?

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I really wouldn't have a problem with that.

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Yeah but then we’d just join in again for the third time.

Let me see, the terrain is flat and open on the north side of the city. UKR has artillery sitting on hill tops across the river 500 feet higher than the city. Without need of drones or any other aerial recon, they can pound retreating forces or even reinforcments like there is no tommorrow.

UKR doesn't need the city, Russia desperately needs it.

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What about this great Kherson counter offensive yall we’re getting off to last week?

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That was a feint.....

We really wanted to kick your guys arse in Severodonetsk. So that is looking like a win for the good guys.