KungFlu related: simple instruction in statistical analysis, Louisiana.

The worst part of this entire pandemic has been learning that the vast majority of people can't decide what data are valid and which are not.

Too long? Scroll to the end.



The reality is that with the incomplete information we are being given, you would be forced to assume cases are increasing at one rate, while deaths are increasing at another.

The reality is the the deaths depend on cases. If you can predict cases you can predict deaths.

The issue arises from testing. We are selectively testing those who we believe have the virus. This is affecting our predictions. A lot.

With their flawed data. 13010 out of every 60325 tested are testing positive.

OMG 21% OF PEOPLE ARE TESTING POSITIVE.

NO

When testing a group of 60325 people, nearly all of whom are showing signs and symptoms of being sick with kungflu, 21% are testing positive. The other 47000 people have some other condition.

So, 13000 ill people out of four million. That isn't bad at all. And under 500 deaths... Also not bad. Right?

Wrong. As another posted pointed out. 68 people did not die yesterday. They were merely cataloged and reported. We don't know when they died. We merely pushed their chip into the pile of people that says dead from KungFlu.

So what's the death rate? Let's say testing and cause of death categorization is lagging behind at the same pace. (It isn't.) But let's say it is since that's what everyone is doing anyways... And that's the error in thinking that needs to be highlighted.

13000 people positive. 475ish dead. 3.6% death rate.

OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE

Nope.

Because remember, that 13000 figure is itself incorrect. It's biased. If you're sick enough to be selected for testing. If you show multiple symptoms. If you have repeated direct exposure. You still only have a 21% chance of it being the KungFlu.




The problem with all of these numbers? They ignore asymptomatic carriers. They ignore carriers who merely shrug off this chinese bullshite.

So what do we know for sure? What hard data can we work with?

We have 13010 confirmed cases. Confirmed. Testing complete and reported. We know there are more to be processed. That doesn't matter. We know 470 deaths are being attributed to it. Some valid. Some not. Some unreported.

All we know for sure, 13000 confirmed cases.

What does that mean?

.2% of the population is confirmed to be sick. 1 in every 342 people are confirmed carriers

These people for sure have it.

Not a terrible number.

But... What about everyone not sick enough to be tested? What about the fact that they think 80% or more just shrug this off?

Well they are out walking around. And that 13000 infected, well it becomes 78000 infected. That 1 in 342... It becomes 1 in 57.




Without proper data, assumptions are being made. Poor ones.

The reality? The death rate is miniscule. Likely around .6% with current levels of medical care. 27000 people with current levels of care.

But current levels of care cannot be maintained if the system gets overwhelmed. The death rate would increase as lack of medical facilities presents itself.



so what do we know for sure?

More people have it than we think. The death rate is a lot lower than we think. If too many people get it at once, more people die.