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re: Jalopnik: No One In The U.S. Really Wants To Buy Electric Vehicles

Posted on 7/12/23 at 12:47 pm to
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
49871 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

Most people spend less than 1 minute per week charging their EV.

I’m curious as to what percentage of the population would be able to have this luxury
Posted by DontPokeTheBear
Squatchland
Member since Aug 2011
941 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 12:48 pm to
My own hypothetical situation:

I moved a year ago and the drive back home, per google maps, is 570 miles... 9 hours 15 minutes.

Per Google, the average distance one can travel on a fully charged EV is 250 miles.


Even if the range of the EV is 275 miles, that means I need to charge up twice, adding @ 1 hour of charging time to the trip, and that's if there is a charging station conveniently placed right at the end of my estimated distance. Then, I need to find a place to charge while in town and before I drive back. And that's not allowing for any traffic jams you will inevitably get caught in and sit for who knows how long. Screw all that.

Additionally - both of my ICE cars are paid off. So, I'm not looking to add a car note of any kind.

Also, where is all the electricity originating from? How is it generated and getting to all these proposed charging stations that should start popping up to replace gas stations? I understand we can add to the distribution infrastructure, but where is it coming from? Are we adding that many solar farms and nuclear power plants?

My own opinion, but before I even think about buying an EV, I'm going to need to see some really eye-popping numbers, like:

450 miles on a single charge.
Sub 15 minute charge times at charging stations.
A real world map showing there being at least half as many charging stations as gas stations.
Something as nice as my GX that doesn't cost 50% more than what it cost new.

And we haven't even touched on: What happens when all the virtue signalers suddenly jump on not liking the working conditions of the people mining the materials for the batteries or what it's doing to the environment. That should create quite the moral conundrum.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
16593 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 12:50 pm to
About 2/3rds of the population live in single family homes.
Posted by AwesomeSauce
Das Boot
Member since May 2015
11166 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:06 pm to
DPTB, I'll add a concern I have as well is with the infrastructure, not just the grid to support the additional units we see reported being added in addition to travel stations, but the vehicles themselves. An F150 lightning has a curb weight that is closer to an F450 dually than it's ICE counterpart. Think of the additional wear on roadways and infrastructure if even 20% of the F150's you see on your commute were replaced with F150 duallys. While home charging today may result in only a 20-25% increase adding an ICE, which is cheaper than a tank of gas, what will happen when gas taxes fail to raise the money required? Electric tax will be one of the options that will have to be present. I can understand their usefulness, and get that for some people they are a viable option. Mandates to push them is not viable and is what pisses people off about them.

To those getting feathers ruffled because people are pointing out the negatives, I am glad that it works for you. Seriously. That said, there are still negatives to them and issues that will be present as their usage increases that at present do not have solutions. People not liking them, or pointing out their flaws is not an attack on you if it works for you. We are all different. I for instance wear a size 14 shoe and a 32x36 pant. The market shifting to only selling size 14 and 36" inseam doesn't make sense and would isolate a lot of people who that doesn't fit. Same goes for EV's they fit some people, and that is great. They don't fit all, and trying to make people fit them into their lives would be like putting your size 9 foot in a size 14 and attempting to go run a 1/2 or 10K, or for your 5'10" self to wear a 36" inseam and not have to alter something just to go about your daily life. It just doesn't work.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29044 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

I moved a year ago and the drive back home, per google maps, is 570 miles... 9 hours 15 minutes.

Per Google, the average distance one can travel on a fully charged EV is 250 miles.


Even if the range of the EV is 275 miles, that means I need to charge up twice, adding @ 1 hour of charging time to the trip, and that's if there is a charging station conveniently placed right at the end of my estimated distance.
Tesla has actually placed them quite conveniently along all major interstates in the US. About the farthest you can get from a Tesla Supercharger is Roswell, NM or Dodge City, KS, so if you're passing through those places you might want to plan ahead. Otherwise the car's navigation will route you to charge stops that minimize drive time. I bet once you stop for food during that 9 hour trip it wouldn't take much longer in a Tesla.
quote:

And that's not allowing for any traffic jams you will inevitably get caught in and sit for who knows how long. Screw all that.
An EV won't lose nearly as much range in traffic as an ICE.
quote:

Also, where is all the electricity originating from?
Same place it currently does, mostly.
quote:

How is it generated and getting to all these proposed charging stations that should start popping up to replace gas stations?
We won't need nearly as many standalone charge stations as gas stations given that literally every building is a potential charge station and a very small percentage of EV charging happens away from home.
quote:

Are we adding that many solar farms and nuclear power plants?
We actually already have enough capacity to support the next 30 years of EV adoption, but I believe Tesla is building out superchargers with solar+battery which can work as micro power plants to help support the grid if necessary.
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
56623 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:15 pm to
For many, the allure of EVs aren't under the assumption or use for long haul trips but rather short commutes, daily errands, evenings out, etc.

Posted by AwesomeSauce
Das Boot
Member since May 2015
11166 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

Korkstand
A lot of that is because those with EV's currently have a lifestyle or habitat that is conducive to having an EV. I think for a lot of people that have short commutes and don't need payload that an EV could be an option once the pricing begins to be more attainable for the avg American and family.

quote:

We actually already have enough capacity to support the next 30 years of EV adoption
Do you have a certain point where this noted? I only ask because from the commercial side I am hearing a lot of conflicting information that the support and infrastructure to support replacement of aging Semi's is not viable to scale as of yet, and that this could necessitate large scale adaptions to accommodate. Not saying your info is bad, only that this isn't what I've seen or heard from those industries.
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
49871 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

About 2/3rds of the population live in single family homes.

How does charging work if you don’t have a garage or park on the street?

Genuine question.
This post was edited on 7/12/23 at 1:22 pm
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29044 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:22 pm to
quote:

An F150 lightning has a curb weight that is closer to an F450 dually than it's ICE counterpart. Think of the additional wear on roadways and infrastructure if even 20% of the F150's you see on your commute were replaced with F150 duallys.
There is essentially no difference in road wear between vehicles that weigh so significantly less than the design capacity of the road. If the road can hold a garbage truck, an F450 won't bother it at all.
Posted by AwesomeSauce
Das Boot
Member since May 2015
11166 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

There is essentially no difference in road wear between vehicles that weigh
That's simply not true. Most roads are configured and budgeted for maintenance based on intervals where the scale uses a 3k vehicle driving 1k miles upon the roadway as a set percentile. The design capacity as you call it is a safe load limit configured based on a safety factor to complete failure, not the wear limit. While a garbage truck can certainly safely operate on road x the amount of miles that vehicle puts on the roadway will decrease the service life. BY increasing the vehicle weights 40-70% for the EV vs their ICE counterpart you effectively decrease the life by the same effect. So while a roadway may support 1 million miles of a 3k vehicle it will only support 750k of a 4k vehicle, and 600k of a 500k vehicle. The increased weights will either call for redesigns of infrastructure to support the added weight, or decreasing maintenance intervals which will in turn raise budgets coming from tax coffers that are less plentiful with lowering gas tax revenue.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29044 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

Do you have a certain point where this noted? I only ask because from the commercial side I am hearing a lot of conflicting information that the support and infrastructure to support replacement of aging Semi's is not viable to scale as of yet, and that this could necessitate large scale adaptions to accommodate. Not saying your info is bad, only that this isn't what I've seen or heard from those industries.
I am mostly referring to passenger vehicles where the impact to the grid will be mostly negligible. If everyone had an EV and charged it at night (which is what happens), the grid load would not exceed the typical daytime peaks. More energy will need to be produced, but the majority of it will be required at night during what has typically been off-peak hours when there is excess capacity right now.

Converting commercial to EV is a different story, but given the benefit of reduced fuel costs I think they will figure it out and invest appropriately. I think battery swaps are an interesting solution that will be explored. Maybe they will end up with a few standard modules and they can equip a truck or trailer appropriately for a given route. Batteries could be charged at central locations, perhaps near cheap energy like wind farms, and handled like regular freight. They are in the business of logistics.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
16593 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

How does charging work if you don’t have a garage or park on the street?

Probably best to avoid EVs unless you want to run a really big extension cord lol.
Posted by DontPokeTheBear
Squatchland
Member since Aug 2011
941 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:54 pm to
I appreciate the answers, I really do.

All that said, I'm still not feeling compelled to join the EV side until I can see the real numbers that actually stand out.

Right Now - 250-275 mile range on a full charge doesn't really inspire confidence for road trips.
Right Now - @ 25-30 minutes charging twice along the way doesn't sound too appealing either. I understand that it would be a major convenience if every place I wanted to stop to eat or use the restroom had a charging station and I could charge while I eat would be great, but Right Now that isn't reality.
Right Now, the prices of the vehicles need to come down.

Posted by DeoreDX
Member since Oct 2010
4232 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

450 miles on a single charge.
Sub 15 minute charge times at charging stations.


From my experience riding with someone else on a long trip in a newest Tesla the supercharger added roughly 150-200 miles of range in about 15-20 minutes. And it charges much faster up to 80% and slows down quite a bit from 80-100%. So the plan is to charge to 80% then hit the next supercharger. There was an app that plotted the course and told him what chargers to stop at and how long each stop would be. Usually every 2-3 hours we would stop for 15-20 minutes. Not any worse than riding with my ex GF who needed to stop to piss every 90 minutes. Honestly wasn't nearly as bad as most people make it out to be.
This post was edited on 7/12/23 at 2:00 pm
Posted by DontPokeTheBear
Squatchland
Member since Aug 2011
941 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 2:08 pm to
Ok, that makes sense. We do pretty much the same thing and it's not bad at all.

Am I missing something? I just searched for a listing of charging stations around Denham (where we're headed to on the next trip back) and the only one that comes up is in Walker..??
That's not far, I guess I expected to see more than that.
This post was edited on 7/12/23 at 2:09 pm
Posted by Box Geauxrilla
Member since Jun 2013
19206 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

Am I missing something? I just searched for a listing of charging stations around Denham (where we're headed to on the next trip back) and the only one that comes up is in Walker..?? That's not far, I guess I expected to see more than that.

Louisiana sucks for charging.

Your best bet would be one of the superchargers in the Baton Rouge area.

I-12 and Airline in the Hammond Aire shopping center
I-10 and Perkins in the Trader Joe’s parking lot
I-10 and Highland in front of Home Depot
This post was edited on 7/12/23 at 2:16 pm
Posted by SECdragonmaster
Order of the Dragons
Member since Dec 2013
17320 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 2:25 pm to
Title of article:

quote:

No One In The U.S. Really Wants To Buy Electric Vehicles


Contained within the story:

quote:

car buyers are much more interested in EVs now than in the past: 51 percent of buyers who participated in a recent Cox survey are considering buying a new or used EV, which is up from 38 percent in 2021.



Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29044 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

BY increasing the vehicle weights 40-70% for the EV vs their ICE counterpart you effectively decrease the life by the same effect. So while a roadway may support 1 million miles of a 3k vehicle it will only support 750k of a 4k vehicle, and 600k of a 500k vehicle.
I don't know the formula used, if there is one, but it is absolutely not a linear relationship as you suggest. I believe they used a 4th power formula for a long time. Obviously it is not that simple.

I contend that normal weathering, hot/cold expansion cycles, plants, and fluids cause far more damage to roads than vehicles do. A road designed to hold 20k+ lb vehicles will hardly be bothered by 6k lb vehicles.
Posted by DontPokeTheBear
Squatchland
Member since Aug 2011
941 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 2:33 pm to
Well, I don't need one anytime soon, lol.

I am sure they will be more locations in the coming years as demand increases. I just thought there would be more already.
Posted by AwesomeSauce
Das Boot
Member since May 2015
11166 posts
Posted on 7/12/23 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

I believe they used a 4th power formula for a long time.
You are correct it is a fourth power formula used for this variable where roughly 1500-lb per axle is the standard. They use a weibull distribution formula which is why before a project you will see pneumatic hoses laid out to count traffic typically over a 7 day interval as well as to measure the approximate weight per axle of vehicles on the section. This allows them to appropriately figure what will be required to return the road surface to standard, as well as anticipate the next interval at which the road will hit a point in elasticity requiring the return to standard. Increasing weight per axle is one of the main factors that not only determines the interval between resurfacing, but also the life, and life of infrastructure on and under the roadway.

quote:

normal weathering, hot/cold expansion cycles, plants, and fluids
Some of the variables used as well as traffic count, axle weight, studded tires, and hazard conditions like time underwater for roads that experience flooding.

Increasing weight per axle will decrease the life of most of our current infrastructure, as well as increase the intervals for resurfacing. This impact will result in an increasing number of substandard roads, and more costs to the taxpayers. You can contend what you would like, but there have been extensive engineering studies readily available online that lay it out, as well as the formulas used for the varying types of roadways that have been utilized by departments to budget and plan roadwork both domestically and internationally for quite some time.
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