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re: Israel taking out Iranian nuclear sites right now
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:13 pm to lsufan1971
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:13 pm to lsufan1971
quote:
They are primarily mobile on launching vehicles. It would take weeks of air strikes to get to most of them.
Do you really think that would be the case if the full force of the US Military decided to get involved?
0
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:14 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Fox News just said that is the air base that has Iran’s most capable aircraft. Israel is making the most of this limited strike.
Our military leaders should take note on how to handle shite.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:14 pm to gizmothepug
quote:
So not acknowledging they exist means they can’t be targeted?
quote:
Not from Iran, and Iran knows that’s a line no country over there wants to cross.
Iran threatening to attack Israeli nuke sites
This post was edited on 4/18/24 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:15 pm to gizmothepug
quote:
About as credible as the Space Force coming out of Louisiana.
Lemme find out martians make a good gumbo and I'll be paddling a pirogue acros ares vallis by the 4th.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:17 pm to _Hurricane_
quote:
So what was the point of this attack? They didn’t hit nuclear sites? Is this just a round 1?
Best guess
Iran attempted a direct attack on Israel, zero chance Israel was just going to let that go without response, and response using the "new" rules (that direct attacks on enemies proper instead of proxies are on the table).
So Israel shows Iran it can and will strike Iran proper, but does it in a manner that doesn't necessarily guarantee another escalation. Focus will shift to Iran, which has the general disadvantage of not having a lot of escalation options. So Iran probably responds via proxy, and it deescalates from there.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:25 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Best guess
Iran attempted a direct attack on Israel, zero chance Israel was just going to let that go without response, and response using the "new" rules (that direct attacks on enemies proper instead of proxies are on the table).
So Israel shows Iran it can and will strike Iran proper, but does it in a manner that doesn't necessarily guarantee another escalation. Focus will shift to Iran, which has the general disadvantage of not having a lot of escalation options. So Iran probably responds via proxy, and it deescalates from there.
This is best case for short term peace.
But Bibi has wanted to go for the jugular for years now. 10/7, Houthis attacking commerce, Biden not being an assertive no, bogged down Russia… if I’m looking at if from an Israeli perspective, it’s time to go at the king and not miss. Relative peace with other Arab states, Saudis would love to see the Iranians go,
American carriers offshore in case things get sketchy…
There will never be a better time for the Israelis to go for Iranian leadership than now.
This post was edited on 4/18/24 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:44 pm to boosiebadazz
That's probably the case
But very little out there to indicate this is going to turn out to be a substantively significant strike (I think it's symbolically a big moment, as was Iran's move).
ETA: I do think behind all this is the idea that if Iran doesn't take the offramp path presented, there are definitely elements who want the mandate to do it. But some ineffective ballistic missiles and drones didn't really provide that. So respond with provocative moves that don't guarantee a major escalation, and let the Iranians decide their own fate.
TLDR, Bibi "I wish a mother would"
But very little out there to indicate this is going to turn out to be a substantively significant strike (I think it's symbolically a big moment, as was Iran's move).
ETA: I do think behind all this is the idea that if Iran doesn't take the offramp path presented, there are definitely elements who want the mandate to do it. But some ineffective ballistic missiles and drones didn't really provide that. So respond with provocative moves that don't guarantee a major escalation, and let the Iranians decide their own fate.
TLDR, Bibi "I wish a mother would"
This post was edited on 4/18/24 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:48 pm to Pettifogger
This is going to be the end of this. Iran won’t respond. It’s done.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:49 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
But very little out there to indicate this is going to turn out to be a substantively significant strike (I think it's symbolically a big moment, as was Iran's move).
I’ve not tracked in independently and don’t have the military/ geographic knowledge to know whether the strikes would be important.
I’m hoping this is the jugular strike because that’s the best chance for regime change. This slow slog, asymmetrical warfare helps the Iranians as they can continually frame it internally as outside aggression and keep with their internal subjugation. The water gets hot but never gets to boil.
Maybe not a pure decapitation of leadership but a significant erosion of their military may allow for internal strife and revolution. However, anything not taking out the Revolutionary Guards on a large scale will be futile.
This post was edited on 4/18/24 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:55 pm to lsufan1971
quote:The president we democrats put into office will take the fight to em'!!!
Our military leaders
These are people democrats put in charge. Ridicule every goddamned one you come across every day for this shite show we live in. It's amateur hour in Washington DC and because of it the world is in a tailspin.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 10:58 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
This is going to be the end of this. Iran won’t respond. It’s done.
Yeah bullshite it's over. Israel has been wanting to frick Iran up for a long time and now they're just going to stop? Netanyahu is clinging to power and this will be his legacy, so he's all in.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:07 pm to boosiebadazz
quote:
There will never be a better time for the Israelis to go for Iranian leadership than now.
I don't weep for the death of any of the worse actors from Iranian leadership. But the question is whether Israel striking has the potential to prop up the somewhat unpopular religious conservatives in Iran. They are something of a financial mess right now and in the absence of conflict with Israel to rally around might be pushed out of power.
In that sense we unfortunately have two administrations in both Iran and Israel who may want perpetual conflict to retain their grip on power.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:12 pm to molsusports
quote:
They are something of a financial mess right now and in the absence of conflict with Israel to rally around might be pushed out of power.
Admittedly not as in-depth on internal Iranian politics, but the Ayatollah hasn’t changed. From Ahmenijad to the “reformer” to whomever the nominal leader is now, they’re an Islamic theocracy with only the Ayatollah in charge.
Arab Spring was the best chance for organic change but that fizzled out. There’s nothing suggesting regime change absent massive Israeli domination as far as what in the public sphere of knowledge
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:13 pm to MrLSU
WELL I guess now it's time to see how full of shite Iran was when it was acting like any action by Isreal would cause dire consequences.....whatever those are
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:17 pm to boosiebadazz
quote:
This is best case for short term peace.
But Bibi has wanted to go for the jugular for years now. 10/7, Houthis attacking commerce, Biden not being an assertive no, bogged down Russia… if I’m looking at if from an Israeli perspective, it’s time to go at the king and not miss. Relative peace with other Arab states, Saudis would love to see the Iranians go,
American carriers offshore in case things get sketchy…
There will never be a better time for the Israelis to go for Iranian leadership than now.
Agreed.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:19 pm to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
WELL I guess now it's time to see how full of shite Iran was when it was acting like any action by Isreal would cause dire consequences.....whatever those are
We don't even know if anything was actually hit. I don't think responding here makes much sense
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:24 pm to Geronimo
quote:I couldn't imagine living in such a clown world where the guy you replied to thinks, in his own words, "this is going to be the end of this."
Yeah bullshite it's over. Israel has been wanting to frick Iran up for a long time and now they're just going to stop? Netanyahu is clinging to power and this will be his legacy, so he's all in.
Iran and Israel are trading blows, Russians and Ukrainians are slaughtering each other, China is posturing, Africa has actual genocides happening, Houthis are shelling international shipping lanes, etc., etc., and this dumbass thinks it's all over and done with.
Iran and Israel do not bomb each other, on top of everything else that's going on, and it being, in his words,
quote:
It’s done.
We humans are, by all accounts, in a world war. It's just that, now, it's getting "hot hot," and with the west being in the shape it's in, there's no stop-gap to halt the momentum. Au contraire, the west not only has the military industrial complex and her whore career politicians bringing it to fruition, not only do we have mental retards in office running things that were voted in by emotional buffoons, not only do we have a runaway immigration problem, but we have citizens who are focused on what other Americans are not doing to suit their emotional needs and wants and keeping up with Taylor Swift and NFL fantasy football more than they are on the ramifications of their vote, and thinking this is all a done deal like the moron you replied to.
We humans are the smartest and dumbest animals on the planet, and exhibit A is this imbecile saying this is all water under the bridge because he can't fathom the alternative that is quickly becoming reality. This global climate will not go away quietly into the night, mark my words. Merle Haggard sang about a snowball headed for hell, and his wishful thinking isn't going to stop it. Pandora's Box has been opened.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:24 pm to MrLSU
So everyone's summer road trip just went up in price... great.
Posted on 4/18/24 at 11:36 pm to boosiebadazz
quote:
if I’m looking at if from an Israeli perspective, it’s time to go at the king and not miss. Relative peace with other Arab states, Saudis would love to see the Iranians go,
American carriers offshore in case things get sketchy…
There will never be a better time for the Israelis to go for Iranian leadership than now.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 2:24 am to _Hurricane_
It’s just a dumb pissing match between the two, hopefully we stay the hell out of it. No sense in spilling American blood because Israel wants to pop off. Let them and Iran have their little scuffle
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