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re: Israel Pfizer efficacy against covid-19 hospitalizations broken down by age group

Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:10 pm to
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

I'll mark you down as thinking the number is too high. You can duke it out with those thinking it's too low.



The fact that there's an arguement really invalidates any statistical analysis. The fact is, no one fricking knows shite about the virus or vaccine because arguably the most important input, infections and infection rate, is unknown.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111392 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

You still haven't answered my questions on the boosters that will almost certainly be required and how those affect these numbers

Why would a booster of the same vaccine be more dangerous? Nothing medically supports that at all

It’s just a magical what if unicorn you are chasing
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

Why would a booster of the same vaccine be more dangerous? Nothing medically supports that at all


One input can not be bad. Sustained inputs of something can be bad, it's really not a hard concept.

quote:

It’s just a magical what if unicorn you are chasing




You seem to be pretty knowledgeable, and I'm asking a question I don't know the answer to. You may not either, no reason to be a cocksucker.

To use one of your own examples, if I eat 3 Tylenol it'll help control my fever. If I eat 150 Tylenol, I'm going to have adverse effects.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111392 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

Korkstand
Not a single person can tell you the exact number of individuals infected

But I haven’t seen a single expert anywhere who didn’t estimate the infected number at minimal 4x that of the confirmed case number

Most have it between 8-10 times higher

Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29105 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

Sure thing, boss

Now, a machine-learning algorithm developed at UT Southwestern estimates that the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began is nearly three times that of confirmed cases.

The algorithm, described in a study published today in PLOS ONE, provides daily updated estimates of total infections to date as well as how many people are currently infected across the U.S. and in 50 countries hardest hit by the pandemic.

As of Feb. 4, according to the model's calculations, more than 71 million people in the U.S. – 21.5 percent of Americans – had contracted COVID-19. That compares with the substantially smaller 26.7 million publicly reported number of confirmed cases, says Jungsik Noh, Ph.D., a UT Southwestern assistant professor in the Lyda Hill Department of Bioinformatics and first author of the study.
I thought we learned early on not to trust models?


Everyone is giving me shite, but half think the case numbers are inflated for "fear" purposes either via too-sensitive tests or cases counted twice or presumed cases or whatever, while others think the number is far too low due to missed asymptomatic cases or lack of testing early on.

Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

A maximum of 6.2 severe cases per 100,000 for anyone under 40 and unvaccinated


figured
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

Said another way, I have a 99.9718% chance of not getting a sever case.


yup these people love to fear monger
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

Not a single person can tell you the exact number of individuals infected

But I haven’t seen a single expert anywhere who didn’t estimate the infected number at minimal 4x that of the confirmed case number

Most have it between 8-10 times higher


Are they removing false positives and using individuals for the count as well?

For example, Jon Rahm "tested positive" at the Olympics after being vaccinated and having Covid. He then tested negative 4 days in a row after that.

How is all of that counted? Does his positive test count, although we know it was probably a false positive? Did his 4 negative tests count 4 times or just 1 time?
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87990 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:16 pm to
I think 4x is correct.

He does make a good point about asymptomatic cases though. We used to differentiate.

When talking about how deadly a disease is, we would talk about asymptomatic cases because it gave a clearer picture. You had to count them.

But when talking about actual cases that result in symptoms, those are the totals we see when talking about the flu or other diseases and their impact on a population.

People confuse the two often. With covid, it has become downright abused depending on your bias and what point you're trying to prove.
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 12:17 pm
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111392 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

yup these people love to fear monger

Interesting coming from you when you are the main person who hs been incorrectly touting the Israel vaccine efficacy numbers….
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

If you are under 40, 6'2" and 175 lbs why shouldnt you take it?


pathetic
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

Interesting coming from you when you are the main person who hs been incorrectly touting the Israel vaccine efficacy numbers….


naa these numbers prove everything i ever said

if youre young and in shape, its not necessary

if youre old and fat, take the vaccine
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87990 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

I thought we learned early on not to trust models?
You wanted something more accurate than the documented cases. I gave it to you.
quote:

but half think the case numbers are inflated for "fear" purposes either via too-sensitive tests or cases counted twice or presumed cases or whatever, while others think the number is far too low due to missed asymptomatic cases or lack of testing early on.
I don't think you realize that it can be both. We KNOW cases got inflated by incorrect tests. We also KNOW that many people got sick and didn't get tested or were asymptomatic. They are not mutually exclusive. The second group is just much larger than the first.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29105 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

I think it's too low. I was pointing out the hypocrisy of you asking for a more accurate number while providing that one.
I'll never object to being called a hypocrite (we all are at times), but in this case I'm legit asking for an accurate number.

So far we have a computer model and a few "I think's".

I will say that I also believe the number too low, but I also believe that the definition of a "case" is fuzzy.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111392 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

naa these numbers prove everything i ever said
Do you want me to link you saying Israel proves the vaccines don’t work and they aren’t a success? You said it just last week so surely you aren’t forgetting
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

Do you want me to link you saying Israel proves the vaccines don’t work and they aren’t a success?


50-75% efficacy is not "working"

but its semantics and a circle jerk to argue either way
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29105 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

Not a single person can tell you the exact number of individuals infected

But I haven’t seen a single expert anywhere who didn’t estimate the infected number at minimal 4x that of the confirmed case number

Most have it between 8-10 times higher
Well 8-10 times higher would be every single American already, so can we say that's not accurate (at least in the US)?

4X sounds reasonable, but again do we know if these cases have some level of immunity? Does it make sense statistically to count them? What do the latest antibody studies show?
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111392 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

50-75% efficacy is not "working"
Can you please look at the op

Once again this thread is for you
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:24 pm to
yes, please extrapolate the OP and then compare to unvax data

if youre healthy/young, its a coin flip whether this vaccine helps or not

if youre fat/old, get the vaccine
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 12:25 pm
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
111392 posts
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:26 pm to
Why is it so hard for you to same how well the vaccine works and how successful it is?
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