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Message
re: Israel Pfizer efficacy against covid-19 hospitalizations broken down by age group
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:10 pm to Korkstand
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:10 pm to Korkstand
quote:
I'll mark you down as thinking the number is too high. You can duke it out with those thinking it's too low.
The fact that there's an arguement really invalidates any statistical analysis. The fact is, no one fricking knows shite about the virus or vaccine because arguably the most important input, infections and infection rate, is unknown.
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:11 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:Why would a booster of the same vaccine be more dangerous? Nothing medically supports that at all
You still haven't answered my questions on the boosters that will almost certainly be required and how those affect these numbers
It’s just a magical what if unicorn you are chasing
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:13 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Why would a booster of the same vaccine be more dangerous? Nothing medically supports that at all
One input can not be bad. Sustained inputs of something can be bad, it's really not a hard concept.
quote:
It’s just a magical what if unicorn you are chasing
You seem to be pretty knowledgeable, and I'm asking a question I don't know the answer to. You may not either, no reason to be a cocksucker.
To use one of your own examples, if I eat 3 Tylenol it'll help control my fever. If I eat 150 Tylenol, I'm going to have adverse effects.
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:13 pm to Korkstand
quote:Not a single person can tell you the exact number of individuals infected
Korkstand
But I haven’t seen a single expert anywhere who didn’t estimate the infected number at minimal 4x that of the confirmed case number
Most have it between 8-10 times higher
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:14 pm to ell_13
quote:I thought we learned early on not to trust models?
Sure thing, boss
Now, a machine-learning algorithm developed at UT Southwestern estimates that the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began is nearly three times that of confirmed cases.
The algorithm, described in a study published today in PLOS ONE, provides daily updated estimates of total infections to date as well as how many people are currently infected across the U.S. and in 50 countries hardest hit by the pandemic.
As of Feb. 4, according to the model's calculations, more than 71 million people in the U.S. – 21.5 percent of Americans – had contracted COVID-19. That compares with the substantially smaller 26.7 million publicly reported number of confirmed cases, says Jungsik Noh, Ph.D., a UT Southwestern assistant professor in the Lyda Hill Department of Bioinformatics and first author of the study.
Everyone is giving me shite, but half think the case numbers are inflated for "fear" purposes either via too-sensitive tests or cases counted twice or presumed cases or whatever, while others think the number is far too low due to missed asymptomatic cases or lack of testing early on.
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:14 pm to The Boat
quote:
A maximum of 6.2 severe cases per 100,000 for anyone under 40 and unvaccinated
figured
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:15 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Said another way, I have a 99.9718% chance of not getting a sever case.
yup these people love to fear monger
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:16 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Not a single person can tell you the exact number of individuals infected
But I haven’t seen a single expert anywhere who didn’t estimate the infected number at minimal 4x that of the confirmed case number
Most have it between 8-10 times higher
Are they removing false positives and using individuals for the count as well?
For example, Jon Rahm "tested positive" at the Olympics after being vaccinated and having Covid. He then tested negative 4 days in a row after that.
How is all of that counted? Does his positive test count, although we know it was probably a false positive? Did his 4 negative tests count 4 times or just 1 time?
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:16 pm to lsupride87
I think 4x is correct.
He does make a good point about asymptomatic cases though. We used to differentiate.
When talking about how deadly a disease is, we would talk about asymptomatic cases because it gave a clearer picture. You had to count them.
But when talking about actual cases that result in symptoms, those are the totals we see when talking about the flu or other diseases and their impact on a population.
People confuse the two often. With covid, it has become downright abused depending on your bias and what point you're trying to prove.
He does make a good point about asymptomatic cases though. We used to differentiate.
When talking about how deadly a disease is, we would talk about asymptomatic cases because it gave a clearer picture. You had to count them.
But when talking about actual cases that result in symptoms, those are the totals we see when talking about the flu or other diseases and their impact on a population.
People confuse the two often. With covid, it has become downright abused depending on your bias and what point you're trying to prove.
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:16 pm to rocket31
quote:Interesting coming from you when you are the main person who hs been incorrectly touting the Israel vaccine efficacy numbers….
yup these people love to fear monger
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:17 pm to lsupride87
quote:
If you are under 40, 6'2" and 175 lbs why shouldnt you take it?
pathetic
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:18 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Interesting coming from you when you are the main person who hs been incorrectly touting the Israel vaccine efficacy numbers….
naa these numbers prove everything i ever said
if youre young and in shape, its not necessary
if youre old and fat, take the vaccine
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:19 pm to Korkstand
quote:You wanted something more accurate than the documented cases. I gave it to you.
I thought we learned early on not to trust models?
quote:I don't think you realize that it can be both. We KNOW cases got inflated by incorrect tests. We also KNOW that many people got sick and didn't get tested or were asymptomatic. They are not mutually exclusive. The second group is just much larger than the first.
but half think the case numbers are inflated for "fear" purposes either via too-sensitive tests or cases counted twice or presumed cases or whatever, while others think the number is far too low due to missed asymptomatic cases or lack of testing early on.
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:19 pm to The Boat
quote:I'll never object to being called a hypocrite (we all are at times), but in this case I'm legit asking for an accurate number.
I think it's too low. I was pointing out the hypocrisy of you asking for a more accurate number while providing that one.
So far we have a computer model and a few "I think's".
I will say that I also believe the number too low, but I also believe that the definition of a "case" is fuzzy.
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:20 pm to rocket31
quote:Do you want me to link you saying Israel proves the vaccines don’t work and they aren’t a success? You said it just last week so surely you aren’t forgetting
naa these numbers prove everything i ever said
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:21 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Do you want me to link you saying Israel proves the vaccines don’t work and they aren’t a success?
50-75% efficacy is not "working"
but its semantics and a circle jerk to argue either way
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:21 pm to lsupride87
quote:Well 8-10 times higher would be every single American already, so can we say that's not accurate (at least in the US)?
Not a single person can tell you the exact number of individuals infected
But I haven’t seen a single expert anywhere who didn’t estimate the infected number at minimal 4x that of the confirmed case number
Most have it between 8-10 times higher
4X sounds reasonable, but again do we know if these cases have some level of immunity? Does it make sense statistically to count them? What do the latest antibody studies show?
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:21 pm to rocket31
quote:Can you please look at the op
50-75% efficacy is not "working"
Once again this thread is for you
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:24 pm to lsupride87
yes, please extrapolate the OP and then compare to unvax data
if youre healthy/young, its a coin flip whether this vaccine helps or not
if youre fat/old, get the vaccine
if youre healthy/young, its a coin flip whether this vaccine helps or not
if youre fat/old, get the vaccine
This post was edited on 8/18/21 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 8/18/21 at 12:26 pm to rocket31
Why is it so hard for you to same how well the vaccine works and how successful it is?
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