- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
IBM introducing the World's Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:28 pm
article detailing new model
For the OT weather experts and followers.
quote:
IBM announced today that they will be introducing the world’s highest-resolution global weather forecasting model later in 2019--the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF). The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.
The current top global forecasting models, the European (ECMWF) model and the U.S. GFS model, subdivide the global atmosphere into grid boxes that average 9 kilometers and 13 kilometers on a side, respectively, then solve the mathematical equations of atmospheric flow to generate a forecast for each of those grid cells. The new GRAF model employs a variable-resolution grid, resembling a honeycomb, that can be configured with higher resolution over areas of particular interest (Figure 1). Over land areas, the GRAF grid elements will have average resolutions of 3 km, which is about 3 - 4 times greater than the European and GFS models.
For the OT weather experts and followers.
This post was edited on 1/8/19 at 3:30 pm
17
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:30 pm to crazyLSUstudent
It'll still be wrong 70% of the time
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:35 pm to crazyLSUstudent
Will everyone be required to refer to it as 'Dr.'?
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:35 pm to crazyLSUstudent
rds:
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:37 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
It'll still be wrong 70% of the time
Probably but watching those models correctly predict a system materialize from nothing 7-10 days out is pretty cool TBH
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:38 pm to crazyLSUstudent
Looking forward to the GRAF vs EURO thunderdome.
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:43 pm to crazyLSUstudent
Can it beat a coin flip?
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:45 pm to crazyLSUstudent
Small resolutions are great for viewing, but not so great for long-range. Data will get very obscure more than 24 hours out.
As seen with the HRRR
As seen with the HRRR
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:48 pm to crazyLSUstudent
A weather rock is more accurate.
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:51 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Probably but watching those models correctly predict a system materialize from nothing 7-10 days out is pretty cool TBH
Exactly. It's hard for me to fault a dude trying to predict a storm that's 7 days away and is just a disturbance out over the Pacific somewhere with no real organization. It's kind of amazing that they're as accurate as they are IMO.
This post was edited on 1/8/19 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 1/8/19 at 3:59 pm to HogX
quote:
It's hard for me to fault a dude trying to predict a storm that's 7 days away and is just a disturbance out over the Pacific somewhere with no real organization.
True, but sometimes they do a horrible job at giving other potential possibilities to make sure people are ready. Ie they focus on a big city to get watchers, but it directly hits towns 100 miles away instead.
I get mother nature is a biatch that cant make up her mind, but give some high percentage possibilities too.
Posted on 1/8/19 at 4:02 pm to crazyLSUstudent
But, can it say coon?
Posted on 1/8/19 at 4:05 pm to TOSOV
Well we are making predictions on the most complex thermodynamic system on the planet. So sometimes we are going to be wrong
Posted on 1/8/19 at 4:05 pm to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
Verification data to show the accuracy of the forecasts is not yet available
Posted on 1/8/19 at 4:38 pm to crazyLSUstudent
For hurricanes it probably just moves the cone earlier and more often than current models to gain accuracy.
Posted on 1/8/19 at 4:41 pm to crazyLSUstudent
If any company ends up creating Skynet, it’ll be IBM.
Posted on 1/8/19 at 4:49 pm to Scruffy
quote:
If any company ends up creating Skynet, it’ll be IBM.
They certainly have the early lead. I’m definitely expecting a late push from Google and Amazon though.
Posted on 1/8/19 at 8:59 pm to crazyLSUstudent
Will there be more observational data introduced and processed inside these smaller grids ?
How are the equations of motion going to be any more exact with higher resolution grids ?
How are the equations of motion going to be any more exact with higher resolution grids ?
This post was edited on 1/8/19 at 9:03 pm
Posted on 1/8/19 at 9:57 pm to Klingler7
quote:
How are the equations of motion going to be any more exact with higher resolution grids ?
Expect to see traditional physics based weather forecasting to die in the next 10 years. There are peer reviewed papers out there claiming that using machine learning and only 10 parameters are getting 80+% accuracy. Compare that to physics based models that get in the low 90% accuracy. The kicker is that you don't need huge computers to do the modeling. Once the training is complete the forecast run in 1/10 of the time.
Posted on 1/8/19 at 10:21 pm to crazyLSUstudent
A lot of wishcasters are in mourning tonight.
Page 1 of 2
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News