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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:02 pm to gaetti15
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:02 pm to gaetti15
quote:
that's a 35% chance of normal to below normal. generally people dont understand probability.
These things could put any numbers and you couldn’t retroactively say they’re wrong. It’s silliness.
2
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:03 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
These things could put any numbers and you couldn’t retroactively say they’re wrong. It’s silliness.
that's probability for you
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:05 pm to Oates Mustache
I think its all too weak. Upper low pulls it faster north, and gets rocketed east as a result.
The upper low wont have the same effect on a stronger system.
The upper low wont have the same effect on a stronger system.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:05 pm to gaetti15
The point is, this really isn’t.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:06 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
The point is, this really isn’t.
sorry complex modeling systems arent deterministic enough for you.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:07 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I think it was TDsngumbo talking about his wife.
yeah something like that... but was that in the thread during 1 of last year's hurricanes? 2 years ago? which storm?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:07 pm to Oates Mustache
Even if the Euro is right and 98L is scared off by Rant juju, check out the October train.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:07 pm to Oates Mustache
It was hurricane Delta
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:07 pm to Y.A. Tittle
First time caller,
What are the chances it continues to shift so far east that it does a 320* spin and comes back to Louisiana?
Ill hangup and listen.
What are the chances it continues to shift so far east that it does a 320* spin and comes back to Louisiana?
Ill hangup and listen.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:07 pm to Aspercel
quote:
Sir, this is a weather thread
Damn. I thought this was the IDA PTSD therapy and support thread. I’ll see myself out.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:07 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
These things could put any numbers and you couldn’t retroactively say they’re wrong. It’s silliness.
That’s why I hate modern meteorology. There’s no accountability. In the old days you had to make your prediction and live with it. Be a hero or a laughing stick. Now you just keep moving that vine until it hits land.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:09 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
That’s why I hate modern meteorology. There’s no accountability. In the old days you had to make your prediction and live with it. Be a hero or a laughing stick. Now you just keep moving that vine until it hits land.
lot more than meteorology you hate if you follow that train of thought with other predictive modeling used nowadays
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:09 pm to ned nederlander
That too. But my ptsd is still leftover from the May 17th flood…
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:09 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Slightly OT: Hurricane Fiona is forecast to still be a hurricane when it hits Nova Soctia and Newfoundland. I hope our boy Frankie Macdonald provides regular updates from the ground there.
I know the Hurricane Track crew, Mark Sudduth, is going to be there to cover it. I think may already be. I don't know who else may be covering it.
Gonna be some damn good satellite watching in the next few days.
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:09 pm to gaetti15
We should know more in about 24-36 hours w this system. Need to keep an eye out not let guard down.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:10 pm to gaetti15
most people dont even understand what a 50% chance of rain means in a forecast
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:10 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Have to imagine one real perk of living in Cuba is private property insurance premiums are largely unaffected by weather events like this.
That is if you can buy insurance. I know you are trying to be sarcastic. Cuba is still stuck in a communist society, I highly doubt anyone there knows what insurance is. Or if they can buy it from the government.
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 10:16 pm
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:11 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
That’s why I hate modern meteorology. There’s no accountability. In the old days you had to make your prediction and live with it. Be a hero or a laughing stick. Now you just keep moving that vine until it hits land.
What do you think about "the cone"?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:11 pm to LegendInMyMind
ive always wondered what the remints of a fish storm hurricane look like that far north.
Sort of like how moisture from tycoons ride the jet stream back to the pac NW. What downstream weather comes from fish storms that no one talks about?
Sort of like how moisture from tycoons ride the jet stream back to the pac NW. What downstream weather comes from fish storms that no one talks about?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:12 pm to LegendInMyMind
Typo, I meant cone.
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