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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/22/22 at 5:59 pm to TutHillTiger
This mfer is going to have a track on every port in the gulf before this is over
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:11 pm to Cosmo
quote:
That big bend area would be best possible scenario
Sparsely populated
ETA, also it is falling apart and sucking in dry air at landfall
Would be ironic too. TLH's last "direct hit" was Hermine in 2016.
I worked that and Michael in Gadsden county.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:12 pm to Cosmo
I thought a large 930mb storm would mostly handle dry air without weakening much? That run seems to tear it up pretty fast for only dry air and no shear
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:16 pm to deltaland
GFS ensembles so far have a pretty big east shift as well through 96 hours.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:18 pm to Bunta
That's a lot faster too
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:24 pm to Oates Mustache
Thread slows way down when models are no longer showing a direct hit to SELA
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:26 pm to Oates Mustache
Eastward shifts on GSF and Euro lining up. Dry air getting sucked in. Wind shear.
I’m all
I’m all
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 6:33 pm
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:31 pm to deltaland
quote:
I thought a large 930mb storm would mostly handle dry air without weakening much? That run seems to tear it up pretty fast for only dry air and no shear
There is shear on that run. You can see it if you pull a sounding.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:35 pm to lz2112
quote:
Would be ironic too. TLH's last "direct hit" was Hermine in 2016.
I worked that and Michael in Gadsden county.
I'm near St Joe. We just got rebuilt from that BS with Michael. Not in the mood
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:36 pm to LegendInMyMind
How many more times will the models change before it hits the gulf?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:38 pm to TigerNAtux
At least 350
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:39 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
How many more times will the models change before it hits the gulf?
Probably a lot.
As others said, we probably shouldn’t even be following this system yet, but it’s addictive
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:43 pm to notiger1997
quote:quote:
How many more times will the models change before it hits the gulf?
Probably a lot.
As others said, we probably shouldn’t even be following this system yet, but it’s addictive
it will change once every 4-ish hours
right now we're in 'don't fret... just keep an eye out' mode
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:44 pm to sledgehammer
quote:
At least 350
Is this the longest thread on TD?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:51 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Gosh Levi is so damn smart.
GOAT. He’s the only dude that I listen to. He actually has reasoning and logic to his forecasting.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:52 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Is this the longest thread on TD?
I think the manhunt for the Boston Marathon bomber went over 1000 pages.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 6:53 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
How many more times will the models change before it hits the gulf?
Hopefully 0, all models see the trough is stronger than expected and it goes to Miami as a Cat 2 or so.
Best case scenario for everyone, and Miami has been pretty lucky considering it's location. No majors since Andrew.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:02 pm to BigPerm30
quote:
GOAT. He’s the only dude that I listen to. He actually has reasoning and logic to his forecasting.
He doesn't really forecast though, he is very gifted at explaining what models are indicating, and why they are indicting those things.
And in today's social media world, that is what we need. Old school forecasters like Bastardi would just scare the crap out of the entire world. Funny, first hurricane season in 20+ years I'm not listening to Bastardi every update. Anyone with Weatherbell watch him?
Posted on 9/22/22 at 7:03 pm to BRIllini07
I believe that Dr. Levi Cowan was a tropical meteorology savant when he was like 16 or 17 years old. He is probably a Mensa member. As a fellow meteorologist, I could not understand how Levi knew so much about fluid and atmospheric dynamics as a high school student.
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 7:04 pm
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