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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:51 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
72009 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

The weekend will be the Jamaica approach. So like Saturday.

That's when the HMON will shine.
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18513 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:52 pm to
ISWYDT
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

That's when the HMON will shine.

Cat 7 doomcane incoming
Posted by Festus
With Skillet
Member since Nov 2009
86058 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:52 pm to
Thanks Duke. That sounds like the time that shat will start getting a bit more real.

Until then, I guess I'll just listen to you guys instruct us on developing patterns.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21059 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

Certainly love the drop from the 930s and 940s.


You probably couldn't draw up a track much better than the 12z Euro if you wanted to limit development in an explosive environment.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61372 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

Watch her, she hates goats. Rude


LOL
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18513 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:06 pm to
Fiona got that eye poppin’ out.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100762 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Hell, 12z even farther east.


OTS nothingburger may be on the table

:fingers crossed:


Who the hell downvotes this lol
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 4:22 pm
Posted by Armymann50
Playing with my
Member since Sep 2011
22056 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:21 pm to
ic a clear path now
Posted by tigerinthebueche
Member since Oct 2010
37780 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

They are evil.


Truth. They are obnoxious and shite everywhere. Only animal I’ve ever owned that I absolutely hated.

Posted by foosball
Member since Nov 2021
2293 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:26 pm to
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15303 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:28 pm to
is it just me or does it look like the surface circulation is heading straight towards Curaçao?

Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:28 pm to
The frick is this
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43210 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:31 pm to
Broad circulation if you look at visibile close up you can see a swirl in the bigger circulation pivoting looks north and then sure it will pivot back down south once it completes it loop in it.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100762 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:33 pm to
18z happy hour run needs to come on.


I’m feigning
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15303 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:36 pm to
yes it's not completely closed yet, but there is a circulation centered not too far off the south american coast, and many of the models are putting the closed low a good bit farther north of Curaçao
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
136332 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:37 pm to
Ah, geez. I fly to Florida at the end of next week. Maybe.
Posted by lz2112
Largo, Fl
Member since Oct 2019
1172 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

Broad circulation if you look at visibile close up you can see a swirl in the bigger circulation pivoting looks north and then sure it will pivot back down south once it completes it loop in it.


Depending on when the center locks onto one of those pivots is when we know who has to start real worrying.

I kinda miss the old days when we wouldn't see these storms coming from so far out. My 80 year old Mom is already planning on evacuating from Largo, Fl. And even for those who understand the models don't mean much yet, each shift in runs is like the shift in an overtime game.

20 years ago, we wouldn't be talking about this storm at all yet.

Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43210 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:43 pm to
Gosh Levi is so damn smart. Just listened to his video saying HWRF and GFS are similar models but the HWRF concentrated the vorticity on the northern side and the GFS on the southern side. Also idk if people can take 2 or maybe 3 more days on not knowing where this thing might end up going.
Posted by BRIllini07
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
3182 posts
Posted on 9/22/22 at 4:50 pm to
quote:

Gosh Levi is so damn smart


The fact that he started Tropical Tidbits as a college kid in his dorm, and single-handedly turned it into the default source for laypeople to view every model imaginable, kinda verifies he is indeed smart.
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