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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/21/22 at 6:43 pm to
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
28292 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 6:43 pm to
A major hurricane in the Gulf that hits Louisiana is a cataclysmic event due to the reinsurance markets. Citizens will be insolvent.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14102 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

major hurricane in the Gulf that hits Louisiana is a cataclysmic event due to the reinsurance markets. Citizens will be insolvent.



yeah kiss insurance good bye if it continues to follow that track into SLA rather than turning NE.

It would be like a trail of dominoes across SELA and MSGC
Posted by zsav77
Member since Oct 2011
6152 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

Lake Charles bound





Posted by jclem11
Chief Nihilist
Member since Nov 2011
9062 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 6:52 pm to
quote:

Well if this trend continues by tomorrow it’s gonna be projected to hit Galveston.


frick off with this wishcasting, baw.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43473 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 6:55 pm to
Ive never been to hawaii

But I hope this hurricane heads that way
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:04 pm to
Jesus christ what happened to that GFS run
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24378 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:06 pm to
quote:

Jesus christ what happened to that GFS run


They let peej push the start button.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14102 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

Jesus christ what happened to that GFS run


whatever happened hopefully the recon data that gets fed into tonight's models helps it out immensely
Posted by DhanTigers212
Member since Dec 2014
10141 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:19 pm to
GEFS Shift West



Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24378 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:22 pm to
Yeah that will definitely raise a few eyebrows. We don't want ensembles moving west right now, especially the GEFS.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14102 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:24 pm to
quote:

Yeah that will definitely raise a few eyebrows. We don't want ensembles moving west right now, especially the GEFS.


what's it going to be? into mexico? tip of the yucatan? western cuba? or central cuba (@~144 hours out)

those look like the four main clusters
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
125893 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

Citizens will be insolvent.


Feds could easily make it solvent

But they would rather send money to ukraine
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5075 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:26 pm to
quote:

GEFS Shift West


Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
80793 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:29 pm to
Posted by Bunta
Member since Oct 2007
12520 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:30 pm to
Fuuuuuuck that.
Posted by NOLA1128
Member since Dec 2011
3697 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:31 pm to
quote:

Jwho77


I usually don’t post much in these threads but damnit you just made me spit out beer laughing
Posted by Armymann50
Playing with my
Member since Sep 2011
20628 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:35 pm to
quote:

we have a linesmen statue now that protects



we have a fro pick to protect us
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
9985 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:44 pm to
Hopefully it is not another 1893 type storm.

1893 Cheniere Caminada Hurricane



Growing up on Bayou Lafourche, I had heard so much about this storm. Before radar and satellites, people were lured into sense of safety since a cold front had just past. Then out of nowhere in the middle of the night, 130 MPH winds and a 20 foot storm surge ripped through Southeast Louisiana. The area with the most intense part of the core around 14 miles wide. 2000 people perished that night.

One of the only surviving houses in Cheniere Caminada was moved to Cut Off, near Sacred Heart Church.

The house was destroyed for Ida and I think it was torn down.
Posted by USMCguy121
Northshore
Member since Aug 2021
6332 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

I'd be more worried about selling my house and moving since I plan to do that soon.


ditto. that said an LA/MS landfall projected this early usually tells me it will stay away. It's still early. really early. It's shifted a lot in a short time and will continue to do so.

Regardless I may as well start thinking of where i'm gonna take the family on vacation this time.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 7:48 pm
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92045 posts
Posted on 9/21/22 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

that said an LA/MS landfall projected this early usually tells me it will stay away.


But…

It’s not on a LA/MS landfall.
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