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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:53 pm to Duke
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:53 pm to Duke
First peak potential surge map. Farther north has not yet been released since it is too far out in time, but expect those to be coming out tomorrow.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 10:54 pm
1
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:55 pm to NorthEndZone
Posting again because it was on the bottom of the last page:
For flood/surge research:
Riskfactor.com
NHC Storm Surge Risk Maps
For flood/surge research:
Riskfactor.com
NHC Storm Surge Risk Maps
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:56 pm to MoarKilometers
No- my family moved out of Miami to Sarasota before Andrew. Hugo was awful. No electricity for 2 weeks after. Studying by lantern light was something I won’t forget. 
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 10:58 pm
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:09 pm to Dexterous404
Very curious as to what they find.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:14 pm to Dexterous404
I don’t envy your decision to evacuate or not. Evacuating for a storm and not knowing the condition of your house is just awful. On the other hand, evacuating is almost never the wrong decision. The more expensive and inconvenient one sure, but almost never the wrong decision. Staying can very much be the wrong decision.
If you are in charge of anyone with any unusual medical consideration I would always vote to move yourself where the power will stay on and the roads will remain passable.
If you are in charge of anyone with any unusual medical consideration I would always vote to move yourself where the power will stay on and the roads will remain passable.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:27 pm to ned nederlander
We evacuated during Irma. You’re exactly right in that it is extremely scary to not know the condition of your home if you evacuate. That was almost worse than staying.Thank God that we don’t have any special medical considerations like you mentioned, or it would be a no-brainer. I’d rather stay in my home this time if at all possible. My neighbors are all staying and we all are going to check on each other and help whoever needs help. But yes, it is always a tough decision.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:32 pm to Dexterous404
quote:
We evacuated during Irma. You’re exactly right in that it is extremely scary to not know the condition of your home if you evacuate. That was almost worse than staying.Thank God that we don’t have any special medical considerations like you mentioned, or it would be a no-brainer. I’d rather stay in my home this time if at all possible. My neighbors are all staying and we all are going to check on each other and help whoever needs help. But yes, it is always a tough decision.
Make sure you have 7-10 days of birth control as well if you stay. You’re humping for keeps now when the lights are out and there is nothing else to do.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:37 pm to Duke
quote:
Very curious as to what they find.
They keep going in that direction and they’re gonna find a big arse tropical system.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:41 pm to Dexterous404
quote:
You’re exactly right in that it is extremely scary to not know the condition of your home if you evacuate.
The only time I’ve ever evacuated my home for anything at all was August 15, 2016 when the flood water rose two feet within three hours. We were on an island and the water was very close to getting in the house when we left in a boat and watching our house as that boat puttered along to dry land was pretty worrisome and the next four days while we waited for the water to go down was torture not knowing. Thankfully the water stopped rising about two inches from getting into the house but lots of family members weren’t as lucky. I don’t envy anyone trying to decide to evacuate right now.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:43 pm to Dexterous404
Local statement for Tampa area regarding surge. They also included the statement for wind and tornadoes, but I didn't want this to be a 1,000 wore post.
quote:
600 WTUS82 KTBW 260327 HLSTBW FLZ162-165-261130-
Tropical Storm Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 12 National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL AL092022 1127 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This product covers West Central and Southwest Florida
**IAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN** NEW INFORMATION ---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for Coastal Charlotte and Coastal Lee
- A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Coastal Sarasota
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for Coastal Charlotte and Coastal Lee
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Coastal Sarasota
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 700 miles south of Sarasota FL
- 17.3N 81.4W
- Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 13 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------
Tropical Storm Ian continues to move northwest through the central Caribbean Sea this evening, and is forecast to strengthen into a Major Hurricane by Tuesday as it moves north into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS -----------------
* SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts across the southwest Florida coastline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves.
Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away.
Damage compounded by floating debris.
Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded.
Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts across the rest of west central and southwest Florida coastline.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:55 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
The only time I’ve ever evacuated my home for anything at all was August 15, 2016 when the flood water rose two feet within three hours.
I evacuated for Georges and again last year for Ida. For Ida my wife was 39 weeks pregnant and leaving her doctor and hospital was a tough. It wasn’t until I woke up Saturday at 4:00 am and checked track did I wake up wife and kids and we were on the road and out of Nola by sunrise. Thankfully I had packed us up Friday to go.
It is a hard to know what to do. Good luck, Tampa.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 1:18 am to ned nederlander
quote:
It is a hard to know what to do. Good luck, Tampa.
Maybe you are good luck. Both the GFS and Euro 00Z runs have shifted a little West. Not much, but enough to give Tampa Bay a little cushion.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 2:00 am to lz2112
Dropped 3 mb between passes. Yeah, it's starting to cook now.
Which might be for the best long term. The faster this gets deeper, the more it feels some SE flow at the higher levels. Might nudge the track just far enough to the west to avoid the Tampa surge nightmare.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 2:16 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 2:20 am to TDsngumbo
I've only lived in LA/FL. Have gone through a dozen+ storm. Only one I remember us evacuating for was one of the major ones that hit New Orleans back in the 90s.
I have a house on the water that is in the current direct path of Ian. I'm in Europe so keeping my fingers crossed friends/family stay safe over there.
Hope all my fellow FL baws stay safe
I have a house on the water that is in the current direct path of Ian. I'm in Europe so keeping my fingers crossed friends/family stay safe over there.
Hope all my fellow FL baws stay safe
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 2:39 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 2:33 am to lz2112
quote:
Maybe you are good luck. Both the GFS and Euro 00Z runs have shifted a little West. Not much, but enough to give Tampa Bay a little cushion.
Not sure about that it. Looks like the euro has it pausing off the coast of Tampa just for a little extra kick in the nuts before jetting off north. That may be far enough west to avoid the most damaging winds but that would be a disaster of a surge and rain maker for Tampa and the surrounding area.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 2:40 am to SippyCup
Yes that close to the coast will definitely cause Coastal flooding and also flood areas in and around that surge.I know when Hurricane Irma and Matthew were along the coast about five years ago we had major flooding and beach erosion all the Atlantic coast of Florida. I couldn't believe how far the those hurricanes made the St.Johns River flood over in Jacksonville due to the excessive surge of water from the hurricane passing by.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 4:01 am to FLBooGoTigs1
gm Boo
I remember water almost coming to your house. You had the concerned face happening.
I also remember err'one evacuating, with no gas and no power to pump it. I found some on Gasbuddy over by The Ocean and he was able to get filled up. It was bad times with I-75 backed up 300 miles.
ABC Tampa is saying it is now a hurricane.
I will not evacuate. 
I remember water almost coming to your house. You had the concerned face happening.
I also remember err'one evacuating, with no gas and no power to pump it. I found some on Gasbuddy over by The Ocean and he was able to get filled up. It was bad times with I-75 backed up 300 miles.
ABC Tampa is saying it is now a hurricane.
I will not evacuate.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 4:03 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 4:17 am to Hangit
Hangman
Let the games begin. It's going to be a sh*tshow on the West side of Florida this week. Looks like gusty winds and alot of rain heading this way where I am at. Prayers to everyone in the direct path.
Let the games begin. It's going to be a sh*tshow on the West side of Florida this week. Looks like gusty winds and alot of rain heading this way where I am at. Prayers to everyone in the direct path.
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 4:50 am
Posted on 9/26/22 at 4:52 am to FLBooGoTigs1
quote:
the direct path
Right now, Cedar Key and Jorts Vegas are fooked. I am freshly mowed, gassed up, and have food and water. The roving hoards have hit the grocery stores. My electric runs underground so that is a blessing. My baby is aboot 15-20 miles N of you, but is an old hand at the 'cane thing.
Good luck up there.
Posted on 9/26/22 at 4:55 am to rds dc
Just filled the 10 gallon gas external tank. Got an extra 2 cases of water and ice for the garage freezer .Will be firing up the generator sometime today. If the worst is power going out i'm good with that.Good luck florida West coasters.
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