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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:46 pm to
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12376 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:46 pm to
Ok, I think Levi Cowan’s website had a mistake in the labeling of 98 L.
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1928 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:47 pm to


12z EPS completely off the rails
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 2:55 pm
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
45936 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:48 pm to
Sorry, I was wrong charter boats just confirmed, you are right it’s only 85 in the bay , off shore etc which is normal. We must have been in a patch or something few weeks ago off OB as we were reading 90 all day.

That’s still hot though anything around that can break this up, ramp it down
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66020 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

12z EPS completely off the rails

Completely off the screen, too.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96646 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:49 pm to
Looking like a cat 3 Tampa or big bend landfall on the euro
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14051 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:52 pm to
yeah that ensemble model just tells me trough timing is everything

almost everything goes left to right very quickly at some point
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48616 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:53 pm to
Yeah, looks like a bad run for Tampa.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66020 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:53 pm to
I meant that your image wasn't showing up at first.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14051 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

I meant that your image wasn't showing up at first.



it was also showing something weird like that for me to

like it was showing all the storms going into Yucatan
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
48616 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:58 pm to
Landfall near or just north of Tampa Thursday night, per this one run of the Euro. Obviously this will change multiple times.

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
96646 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:08 pm to
Also the euro seems to have the cold front stronger and later than the gfs
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20614 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:09 pm to
A track towards Florida does make sense given the persistence of the Southern Plains Ridge and the projected track of Fiona. However, it's still a long way out there and the 12z EPS highlights multiple potential outcomes.

Posted by sonoma8
Member since Oct 2006
7840 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:13 pm to
While interesting…. id rather have these spaghetti models

Eta: had a feelin a ban hammer was about to cometh
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 3:30 pm
Posted by Tornado Alley
Member since Mar 2012
27675 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:16 pm to
TYFYS sonoma8, and Godspeed.
Posted by Tomherman
Member since Sep 2016
2003 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:17 pm to
Hurricanes bring a nip to the air.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24340 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

Will it pass through Hebert’s box?


Yes, and Bella's vagina.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
123612 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:24 pm to
Don't love that Western trend. Reminding me of some other storms that shall not be named.

Hopefully it just fizzles into Mexico...
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20614 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:36 pm to
It looks like the outflow from Fiona will shear 98L over the next couple of days. That should keep the system weaker until it can clear that outflow, which will be dependent on the strength and track of Fiona.

Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

looks like the outflow from Fiona will shear 98L over the next couple of days. That should keep the system weaker until it can clear that outflow, which will be dependent on the strength and track of Fiona.


In basic English for us with Ida PTSD
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
11262 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 3:40 pm to
quote:

That should keep the system weaker until it can clear that outflow, which will be dependent on the strength and track of Fiona.


So because it’ll be weaker that explains the western trends we’ve seen today?
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