re: Hurricane Season - We back - NHC 10% Gulf Action

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Here’s what I don’t like about this system. Models aren’t doing a great job. Radar has estimated 2-4 inches over Alexandria with that first storm, and I think another 1-3 inches will fall in the next hour. That’s 3-7 inches, and more than I was forecasting for the entire event. Granted, parts of the area have seen nothing, but my job is to communicate the range of outcomes, and realistic worst case scenarios.

Models do show isolated 10+ inch potential, but that’s mainly south of I-10. What’s interesting is that I’m now seeing a coherent circulation on radar very clearly just southeast of Lafayette. I do expect things to calm down after dark, but I’ll be watching that area very closely as it’s located right along the axis of deepest moisture.

All that said, there’s a lot more rain to come in the short term for parts of the area, and this is setting us up to be saturated for tomorrow’s rains. We’ve already seen how efficient these storms are at producing rain, so my concern for flooding, especially in urban settings with lots of concrete and asphalt is growing. I would avoid travel in the Alexandria area through 7:30 at the very least.

With models not doing a great job, I’ll be doing a lot of nowcasting as storms fire up, and will alert you when things are looking rough. I do think we are going to see isolated 10+ inch totals in Central Louisiana, which is a change from what I thought this morning. You have to take what these systems show you as a forecaster, and not stay married to the model data if it’s lacking. In this case, they have undershot things by a decent margin, and I expect this system to produce more than they are forecasting through the next 36-48 hours.

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Butthole: puckering

Just rained like a mofo at my house.

Sounds like Destrehan / Laplace just got dumped on.

Been pretty sporadic in Metairie, mostly dry.

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Sounds like Destrehan / Laplace just got dumped on

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Are you bragging or complaining?

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Just stating ….

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we got 3.1 inches

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I'd bet your wife got less

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Next to nothing here near everywhere today

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more accurate

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Gem of St. George (a/k/a JT)

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What is JT?

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Jefferson Terrace

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Jefferson Terrace Elementary;
Where we learn right from wrong.
Jefferson Terrace Elementary;
We honor you in song.
Where we try, and strive, to do our best
At our old school, J.T.!