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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - Watching WCAB & Gulf for Late Week Development
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:05 am to dukke v
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:05 am to dukke v
quote:
You underestimate me….. just because you saw a pic of me on the front of a boat means nothing… that was like 10 years ago…. I assure you that you want no part of me…
Peej, if you care anything about me, please stop taking their bait.
You know I live in FL and I desperately need to read what the experts say to see if I can wear my suede d'orsay flats this weekend!!!!
0
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:06 am to dukke v
The fact that it was 10 years ago and you looked old and leathery then doesn't speak too well about you a decade later
I can't imagine what that guy looks like aged 10 more years. Yeeeesh
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:15 am to deltaland
quote:
Forget Fred. Let’s discuss what the latest GFS does with 95L
940? Yikes. First one worthy of a name.
That one could be Hurricane Baw.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:19 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Each model has a number of ensembles. Each individual ensemble run has slightly different variables or potential outcomes due to tweaks to certain parameters. The main model will take, essentially, the average and most likely scenario from these ensemble model runs.
I believe it’s a little different explanation than this - the operational/main run has all of the current data points plugged in as reported. The ensembles intentionally change the initial settings in order to account for the fact the initial inputs aren’t perfect, so the ensembles help provide some level of possible alternatives.
The main run isn’t an average as much as it’s just the initial settings without any intentional adjustments. You often see the main run in the middle of the ensembles, but it’s not an average as much as it’s a baseline of sorts.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:24 am to LegendInMyMind
gotcha - I was thinking the early runs were pick the one in the middle as a baseline, and adjust accordingly as new data is fed in - seems it would be easier that way - but wholly inaccurate - but for forecasting 5 to 7 das out for the US, it makes sense to do it that way - since there is no real way to know, at that point, what anything will do.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:25 am to rds dc
man I hope it stays just a storm - for the Bahamas sake - those poor folks do not need another bad storm this soon
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:36 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
940? Yikes. First one worthy of a name. That one could be Hurricane Baw.
Has the look and path to be the real deal.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 10:36 am to dukke v
PeeeeeeeeeeeeeeJaaaaaaay
You know who to call if you need back up...not that you need any.
TeamClean 4 Life
You know who to call if you need back up...not that you need any.
TeamClean 4 Life
Posted on 8/13/21 at 11:09 am to deltaland
I would imagine storms hitting that part of the country are pretty rare. When was the last one to do it?
Posted on 8/13/21 at 11:31 am to TheAstroTiger
Son & daughter-in-law moved from California to North Carolina last fall. Out of the wildfires into the windstorm 
Posted on 8/13/21 at 11:35 am to TideHater
quote:
TeamClean 4 Life
Posted on 8/13/21 at 11:38 am to rds dc
quote:
Peej says the Antarctica white dust will push this back to Africa
Posted on 8/13/21 at 11:40 am to VermilionTiger
Where are you guys predicting PT7 to go after Florida?
Posted on 8/13/21 at 11:40 am to VermilionTiger
quote:Galveston and then maybe take a nice trip to oregon before heading back home to africa for the winter
Where are you guys predicting PT7 to go after Florida?
This post was edited on 8/13/21 at 11:42 am
Posted on 8/13/21 at 12:24 pm to PorkSammich
GFS backed off their east coast doomcane and fell in line with other models in regard to 95L
Posted on 8/13/21 at 12:34 pm to Mr Clean
quote:
Where are you guys predicting PT7 to go after Florida?
After Jacksonville, it is going to visit the Carolinas.
I am not a weather professional, but am following the standard arc in the NOAA drawing.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 12:52 pm to slackster
quote:
The ensembles intentionally change the initial settings in order to account for the fact the initial inputs aren’t perfect, so the ensembles help provide some level of possible alternatives.
Not just initial settings, but also assumed values and different assumptions. So it's a bit more of a spread than that.
Yeah though, they're trying to give a spread of possibilities vs the exact outcome.
Posted on 8/13/21 at 3:13 pm to Duke
Ok...point blank ! Is PTC 7 following Fred ? Is this gonna be another Florida storm ?
Posted on 8/13/21 at 4:37 pm to Duke
Fred is moving due west now centered over Cuba. He isn’t obeying the law of the cone
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