re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

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That’s a rough Labor Day weekend for the panhandle and Alabama if that verifies. Pressure still 969mb to almost Birmingham (again, if this run were to verify).

18z GEFS favors weaker and west



OP is on the right hand side of the spread



18z Euro probably even weaker than 12z

I think the strength is overstated. It crosses Cuba and weakens to a cat 1 and almost immediately jumps up to a strong 2. Cuba does a number on hurricanes and usually it takes a good half a day minimum for them to recover their structure and vertically align to strengthen. Also it strengthening that much near the islands prior to Cuba is unlikely.

I see a TS post Cuba and no more than a strong Cat 2 at landfall if that path materializes

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18z Euro probably even weaker than 12z

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18z has a more defined vorticity through 90 hrs than 12z. Would think that will yield some interesting ensembles once they roll out (to 144 hrs albeit)

GEFS members favoring a more Southern track ain't the greatest. Let's see if 00z will have more members picking up on it. The majority certainly aren't pushing it across Cuba.

Is it possible it just goes into Central America

I mean, the 850-500mb vort is a bit more defined but it's not really "developing" and there isn't any surface reflection at 90hrs

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