re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

That tweet is like kicking the BR antpile.

He does say, if it even develops at all. I'm with him there!

Isn’t Gustav a bingo square? Do we have the updated bingo for this season?

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Yeah, the lemon might go orange soon if we get a few more GFS runs like that.

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We'll know in the next 24-48 hrs if the GFS is on to something. The GFS has a bias of seeding waves with vorticity off of SA and that might be happening with this wave.

In 24hrs, the 12z Euro and GFS look pretty close at 850





By 48hrs, the Euro is faster and weaker and the GFS is pulling up a streamer of vorticity from SA and trying to wrap it into the wave.





The Euro is missing that extra lob of vorticity and never really does anything with this wave. We'll know here pretty soon which model is right.

30 years ago

The NHC has had some nice write ups recently on the Andrew anniversary. I was 7 at the time and it was the first hurricane I remember. I remember it was my first week or two at a brand new school. I didn't know anyone but my 2nd grade teacher thought it was appropriate to talk to the class about this massive hurricane heading right for us. I remember her saying "we HOPE it blows this way" while motioning with her arms as if she was blowing the hurricane away . I didn't know anything about it until that moment. Went home and asked my parents and sure enough, there was a massive storm heading our way. My dad boarded up the windows that evening and my mom went to the store to buy a bunch of water and food. I remember asking what a hurricane was and my dad, in his best way to describe it to a 7 year old, just said it was a bunch of wind. So in my mind I imagined a shite ton of leaves being blown around by wind and was wondering what the hell all the fuss was about over a bunch of leaves blowing everywhere . Then it hit and all hell broke loose. From that night on I have had an enormous fascination with hurricanes.

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I was 7 at the time and it was the first hurricane I remember. I remember it was my first week or two at a brand new school. I didn't know anyone but my 2nd grade teacher thought it was appropriate to talk to the class about this massive hurricane heading right for us. I remember her saying "we HOPE it blows this way" while motioning with her arms as if she was blowing the hurricane away . I didn't know anything about it until that moment. Went home and asked my parents and sure enough, there was a massive storm heading our way. My dad boarded up the windows that evening and my mom went to the store to buy a bunch of water and food. I remember asking what a hurricane was and my dad, in his best way to describe it to a 7 year old, just said it was a bunch of wind. So in my mind I imagined a shite ton of leaves being blown around by wind and was wondering what the hell all the fuss was about over a bunch of leaves blowing everywhere . Then it hit and all hell broke loose. From that night on I have had an enormous fascination with hurricanes.

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What a terribly boring story

It has a minimal hurricane over the western end of cuba??

This GFS run is very similar to the previous one.

And Fratella is sounding the NOLA alarm on his site.

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Not really. It still develops a storm but it's slower and does it a different way than the last run. Upper levels do look conducive for development but have to get something at the surface first.

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Sooo . . . . Milk sandwiches On/Off?

It also has a skrong cold front dropping down at the same time as landfall so Im gonna ignore that run