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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat
Posted on 8/20/22 at 9:42 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 8/20/22 at 9:42 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images
indicate that the disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico
remains disorganized.
The chances of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear
to be decreasing.
2
Posted on 8/20/22 at 9:46 am to Oates Mustache
They are gonna name it at landfall
Insurance companies demand it
Insurance companies demand it
This post was edited on 8/20/22 at 9:46 am
Posted on 8/20/22 at 9:50 am to rds dc
quote:
This will be an interesting case study of a system that might be too small for the global models to properly resolve. The 12z models aren't too interested in this system and all of them appear to prevent the wave axis from rolling over and closing off a surface circulation.
12z Euro for 12z tomorrow shows some light and variable winds right near the coast. Enough to close this off for a name? The background flow across the Gulf doesn't look like there is a TS down there.
12z GFS for the same time. Even less of a kink in the flow than the Euro.
The system lost all it's convection overnight and there were no real signs of a surface circulation this morning before the current convective burst. It takes numerous rounds of convection to close off a surface circulation along a wave axis. The cloud tops associated with the MLC are currently warming and it appears that the most active convection is well NE of the area that would be favored for closing off a LLC.
All that said, the NHC is convinced this will get organized enough to get a name. It is certainly possible that the global models are just missing the system do to the resolution restraints.
Actually, a really good short range forecast from the global model runs yesterday for this morning. Recon found light winds near the coast but overall the wind pattern is dominated by the background flow around the ridge. NHC still might try to put a name on this later but it will be a stretch as the southern end of the wave axis will be moving in land as the day goes on.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 9:52 am to rds dc
quote:
NHC still might try to put a name on this later
I think you're just trying to frick with me.
Read my quote from them. No way they do it now!
Posted on 8/20/22 at 9:52 am to Oates Mustache
GFS is also back to picking up the system that put the storm into Mobile a few days ago. It develops it around the same time over Western Cuba. Very little ensemble support on it, but it has popped back up on the operational.
This post was edited on 8/20/22 at 9:53 am
Posted on 8/20/22 at 10:02 am to LegendInMyMind
There's seriously something wrong this season, not sure what though. The models have been pretty inconsistent from run to run. Normally by this time, we'd at least have multiple runs showing very similar outcomes. I'm not a naysayer and I'm certainly not a season canceler but something is off this year.
Lot of talk about 3rd year La Nina's that result in this type of Atlantic season, so maybe this is what's happening.
Lot of talk about 3rd year La Nina's that result in this type of Atlantic season, so maybe this is what's happening.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 10:02 am to junior
quote:
All recs appreciated
ATX Cocina is 100x better than Matt's although it's not exactly texmex. It's a little more interior style but not in an unfamiliar way. The happy hour only tacos are a bonus.
Loro needs another vote. Partnership between Tyson Cole (Uchi) and Franklin bbq.
Homeslice pizza
Casino El Camino burgers. Take 'em to 6th St cuz they'll end up there eventually.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 10:05 am to rds dc
quote:
NHC still might try to put a name on this later but it will be a stretch as the southern end of the wave axis will be moving in land as the day goes on.
Didn’t stop them from naming Colin after it was on land.
Intensity guidance did very well with this one.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 10:22 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
I'm not a naysayer and I'm certainly not a season canceler but something is off this year. Lot of talk about 3rd year La Nina's that result in this type of Atlantic season, so maybe this is what's happening.
Sooo that’s a good thing, right?
Posted on 8/20/22 at 10:30 am to Oates Mustache
Last season used a lot of names but it wasn’t until late August that there was a real storm. Hurricane Grace was the first substantial system not becoming legitimate until August 20th.
The only thing different with this season so far is we haven’t had a few more fish tropical storms like 2021 had.
2021 didn’t really start until late August. ACE was basically 0 until then.
Moral of the story… you still can’t say anything one way or the other about this season. But a quiet season would be a nice change.
The only thing different with this season so far is we haven’t had a few more fish tropical storms like 2021 had.
2021 didn’t really start until late August. ACE was basically 0 until then.
Moral of the story… you still can’t say anything one way or the other about this season. But a quiet season would be a nice change.
This post was edited on 8/20/22 at 10:37 am
Posted on 8/20/22 at 10:54 am to The Boat
quote:
Didn’t stop them from naming Colin after it was on land.
Lowlands of north carolina provided very favorable conditions for strengthening baw
Posted on 8/20/22 at 5:11 pm to Cosmo
Looks like another nothingburger in a nothingburger season
Posted on 8/20/22 at 5:22 pm to deltaland
quote:
nothingburger season
That’s a good thing.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 6:17 pm to deltaland
quote:
Looks like another nothingburger in a nothingburger season
I'm not going to post the 18z GFS because I think it would just be piling on you at this point.
It is out there. And it is Delta's fault for anyone who wants to see it.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 6:19 pm to LegendInMyMind
Hahaha, happy hour is always the best.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 6:22 pm to LegendInMyMind
While happy hour it is the lead wave i think. Yes I know it will change thousands of times between now and 384 hours.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 6:22 pm to Oates Mustache
We now call it Delta hour.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 6:23 pm to lsuman25
quote:
While happy hour it is the lead wave i think.
It is. It is the wave that the GFS just won't let die. That is the most interesting thing about it right now.
It also develops that wave earlier than it has to this point. It forms over Cape Verde in this run.
This post was edited on 8/20/22 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 8/20/22 at 6:27 pm to LegendInMyMind
Be interesting with the 8:00 pm TWO see if they up the odds at all.
Posted on 8/20/22 at 6:27 pm to LegendInMyMind
We need to start a gofundme for Delta's medical bills of one hits Louisiana this season.
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