re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat

Good luck on getting some rain you texas baws. The good kind not the storm that sits there for a week and causes massive flooding.

Why ?
After the first couple inches the rest is just going to runoff

A good rain every 10-14 days is way better

A steady slow rain will only have about 10% runoff, it will slowly soak into the soil until it reaches about 15" down depending upon the soil type. Then you get runoff after that or during a heavy rain where it doesn't have enough time to soak in.

quote:

---

A steady slow rain will only have about 10% runoff, it will slowly soak into the soil until it reaches about 15" down depending upon the soil type. Then you get runoff after that or during a heavy rain where it doesn't have enough time to soak in.

---

They won't be getting slow and steady rain if the totals actually verify

Also he lives in San Antonio so it isn't reaching 15" down

Backed up by the QPF.

The rain forecast is for over a week. They can handle that rain forecast.

I don't know how long they've been using this product, but it is a different way to show the forecast potential. That's around a 45% chance of getting more than 3" of rain over the next five days.

quote:

---

Not as crazy as the Euro but this is a wild forecast from WPC for Texas, eps for August!

---

Only about 10 inches less. Much more manageable

NHC with a special TWO, even if this does get named it doesn't really change things and there will be a lot of rain for Texas next week.

quote:

---

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1050 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche are getting better organized.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form later today or
on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the
southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday
night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern
Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system this afternoon. Interests along the northeastern coast of
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

---

quote:

---

The rain forecast is for over a week. They can handle that rain forecast.

---

Never said they couldn’t
Said it was stupid to wish for it to rain for a whole week no matter where you live