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Posted on 7/31/19 at 11:00 pm to pioneerbasketball
How do I join team bunchie?
Posted on 7/31/19 at 11:33 pm to Byrdybyrd05
quote:
Do I need to go buy bread?
Of course.
And a bunch of water.....and snacks.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 12:23 am to rds dc
You can always count on the GFS...
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:35 am to rds dc
The 06z GFS has joined the 00z Euro with not showing much development for 96L. This makes sense given the forecast upper level environment across the Islands. The 00z GFS appears to be allowing the systems convection to alter the near storm upper level environment, which can happen, but seems unlikely given the scale of the upper level features.
As the system approaches the Islands there is a significant upper level trough (+PV) across the area. This eventually breaks down into a couple of upper level lows. The 18z and 00z GFS put the storm in the goldilocks position allowing it to really get going. A stronger more organized system can deposit -PV into the near storm environment.
We see this really take off on the 18z run with a powerful storm depositing lots of -PV (blue shaded area around storm) disrupting the upper level environment making in more conducive to strengthening. Very simply:
+PV (yellow shading) can be associated with shear and an upper level environment not conducive to strengthening of a storm
-PV (blue shading) can be associated with a better upper level environment around the system
As the system approaches the Islands there is a significant upper level trough (+PV) across the area. This eventually breaks down into a couple of upper level lows. The 18z and 00z GFS put the storm in the goldilocks position allowing it to really get going. A stronger more organized system can deposit -PV into the near storm environment.
We see this really take off on the 18z run with a powerful storm depositing lots of -PV (blue shaded area around storm) disrupting the upper level environment making in more conducive to strengthening. Very simply:
+PV (yellow shading) can be associated with shear and an upper level environment not conducive to strengthening of a storm
-PV (blue shading) can be associated with a better upper level environment around the system
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:40 am to rds dc
But what about my trip to Punta Canta next week?
Frick
Frick
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:44 am to rds dc
You know it's hurricane season when rds is busting out the potential vorticity maps on TD at 8 am.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:58 am to Duke
So, were is this going? Was thinking of flying down to the keys for some fishing for a few days next week.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 9:29 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Scheduled to head down to St. John on Aug. 9.
You and other weather posters are always most impressive. I get more and better information on TD than I do from the national weather outlets.
Thank you!
Posted on 8/1/19 at 11:23 am to rds dc
quote:
You can always count on the GFS...
With that track here in jax my butt will be puckered
got my new roof from last hurricane a few years ago. Im good .
Posted on 8/1/19 at 11:31 am to rds dc
Weather is trolling now?
Posted on 8/1/19 at 11:53 am to 50_Tiger
You should have seen the GFS out in the WPac this week. Dropping four sub 970 typhoons at the same time, just cuz.
This post was edited on 8/1/19 at 11:54 am
Posted on 8/1/19 at 11:59 am to rds dc
Gonna slow way down, turn slightly ENE and then U of F can cancel their season opener against Miami.
Posted on 8/1/19 at 8:17 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Can we plan on seeing this in every one of these threads from now through October?
There are Orders already post dated for those months. So yes it will definitely come up.
Posted on 8/2/19 at 10:47 pm to rds dc
any updates?
Posted on 8/3/19 at 8:43 am to pioneerbasketball
GFS and European are showing no signs of serious development.
If it tracks north of Puerto Rico it is likely a fish storm. If it tracks south of Puerto Rico shear(and island land mass) will prevent development or even kill it.
If it tracks north of Puerto Rico it is likely a fish storm. If it tracks south of Puerto Rico shear(and island land mass) will prevent development or even kill it.
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